Invest 94L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models thread

[RattleMan]

A new invest JUST popped up on the NRL. I have to assume that it is that area to the east of the Windward Islands, as there is no data on it to go by that I can find.

[JamesFromMaine2]

yup its on Navy site as well!

[cycloneye]

Yes it's for that area near the windwards.No tropical models yet but they will come soon.

Your title of thread will change constantly as you may know when a member posts first the big news.It will say 94L invest,comments,sat pics,models thread.

[RattleMan]

Your title of thread will change constantly as you may know when a member posts first the big news.It will say 94L invest,comments,sat pics,models thread.

Yup, I know. I found the IR image - It is confirmed as the one east of the Windwards.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL942005) ON 20051113 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051113 0000 051113 1200 051114 0000 051114 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.0N 58.3W 12.4N 59.7W 12.9N 61.0W 13.6N 62.1W
BAMM 12.0N 58.3W 12.5N 60.1W 13.0N 61.7W 13.5N 62.9W
A98E 12.0N 58.3W 12.8N 60.6W 13.2N 62.7W 13.6N 64.4W
LBAR 12.0N 58.3W 12.9N 60.2W 13.9N 61.8W 14.8N 63.2W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 25KTS 30KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 25KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051115 0000 051116 0000 051117 0000 051118 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.2N 63.0W 15.2N 64.3W 15.2N 65.6W 14.2N 67.8W
BAMM 14.0N 63.8W 14.7N 65.6W 14.3N 67.6W 13.1N 70.4W
A98E 13.9N 65.6W 14.4N 68.0W 14.4N 70.8W 13.9N 74.3W
LBAR 15.6N 64.1W 17.1N 64.8W 17.7N 63.0W 17.7N 58.6W
SHIP 36KTS 42KTS 48KTS 53KTS
DSHP 36KTS 42KTS 48KTS 53KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 58.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.1N LONM12 = 56.1W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 53.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


First Model Plots.

[HURAKAN]

Could November get more interesting?

[cycloneye]

And where I am I will have to watch it very closely.

[cycloneye]

Looks surprisenly very good despite the horrendous shear nearby.

[dixiebreeze]

This would be Delta?

[whereverwx]

Wow, that’s some nice convection.

[dixiebreeze]

Some very cold tops for #94:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

[jkt21787]

This would be Delta?

Yeah, but if and only if 93L and 94L develop, and right now, honestly, there's not very high chances of either doing so, especially 93L, as there is absolutely nothing going on there where the supposed "center" is...

[O Town]

Wow, looks pretty darn organized to me.

[mike815]

Yeah i know it is pretty shocking. It looks very good.

[Brent]

OK... what month is it again?

[wxmann_91]

Wow, that’s some nice convection.

Looks surprisenly very good despite the horrendous shear nearby.

Some very cold tops for #94

Wow, looks pretty darn organized to me.

Yeah i know it is pretty shocking. It looks very good.

I'm bored so I combined everybody's quotes. Thought it was fun. But point of this post is tomorrow at this time nobody will be saying these things because more likely than not 94L will be dead. Remember that there is 30-40 kt shear over it right now. Shear is decreasing slightly right now but it will not abate enough to allow this to develop.

[mike815]

yeah i know it will be very though to develope. shear is very strong, but hey u never know it still could

[WindRunner]

Ahh, you naysayer! The both of you! Let us have our fun, even if it is only one night! We don't get two invests within 9 hours in the middle of Novemeber very often, now do we?

[mike815]

Very tru!

[O Town]

You so funny wxmann. If there is that much shear the chances of it development are slim. Can someone post a shear map just for kicks and giggles, haven't looked at one in a while I know it is typically high this time of year. Thanks.