TD Bolaven (24W): Dissipates over Luzon

#1 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Nov 12, 2005 2:42 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.1N 133.4E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 132.5E, APPROXIMATELY 145 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF PALAU. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION
CONSOLIDATING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW, BUT A LACK OF RADIAL
OUTFLOW, ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

WPAC CONTINUES HOT!

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Nov 12, 2005 5:10 pm

WTPN21 PGTW 122200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/122151ZNOV2005//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.3N 132.3E TO 8.6N 129.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 122030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.5N 132.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 6.5N 132.2E, APPROXIMATELY
150 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PALAU, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
A 121617Z AMSR/E PASS AND ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED AND TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
IT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND OUTFLOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE TO THE WEST AND NORTH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE IM-
PROVING OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
132200Z.//

TCFA issued.

Sandy I Edited the title.

#3 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Nov 12, 2005 5:34 pm

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Nov 13, 2005 8:53 am

NRL changed to NONAME so later they first advisorie will come.

#5 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Nov 13, 2005 9:46 am

WTPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/122151ZNOV2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 7.5N 129.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.5N 129.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 8.5N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 10.0N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 11.5N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 13.3N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.0N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 7.8N 129.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM WEST OF
PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
122151Z NOV 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 122200)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.//

FIRST ADVISORY IS UP!

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Nov 13, 2005 4:18 pm

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 7.3N 129.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.3N 129.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 8.1N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 9.2N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 10.4N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 11.8N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 14.0N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 7.5N 129.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TANDAG HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
131800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z,
141500Z AND 142100Z.//

NNNN

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Nov 13, 2005 9:48 pm

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 8.2N 128.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.2N 128.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 9.3N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 10.4N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 11.7N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 12.8N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.0N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 8.5N 128.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TANDAG, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 140000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z
AND 150300Z.//

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Nov 14, 2005 7:14 am

140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 9.6N 128.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6N 128.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 11.4N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.0N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.5N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.8N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.8N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.7N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.5N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 128.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 535 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z,
150300Z AND 150900Z.//
NNNN

#9 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Nov 14, 2005 10:35 am

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 10.2N 128.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2N 128.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 11.9N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 13.4N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.2N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.3N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.0N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.9N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.5N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 10.6N 128.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z,
150900Z AND 151500Z.//
NNNN

#10 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Nov 14, 2005 1:54 pm

It may be over 31C SSTs but the 12pm GMT JMA phase diagrams don't take this below 1000hPa and only maintain it for 36 hours. (From T+36 to T+72)

#11 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Nov 14, 2005 3:22 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 10.6N 128.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 128.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 12.0N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 13.4N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 14.6N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.5N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.0N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.6N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.7N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 10.9N 128.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
525 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.//

#12 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 10:44 am

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 12.3N 130.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 130.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 13.9N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 14.7N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.1N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 15.6N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.3N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.6N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.1N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 130.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTH-
EASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z,
160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.//

#13 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 4:35 pm

Another TD for the WPAC. TS forecasted in 24 hours:

WTPQ20 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151800UTC 13.9N 129.8E POOR
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 161800UTC 15.0N 130.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT =

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #14 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 6:02 pm

I've added the JMA, PAGASA, and JTWC links for this depression as well as satellite floaters from NRL.

http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/

#15 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Nov 16, 2005 12:17 am

WTPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 14.1N 130.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 130.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.1N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.6N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.1N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.5N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 16.8N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.9N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.0N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 130.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z,
161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.//

#16 Postby **P.K.** » Wed Nov 16, 2005 2:26 am

Upgraded to a TS an hour ago.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160600UTC 13.9N 129.4E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 170600UTC 14.4N 129.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
48HF 180600UTC 15.0N 127.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
72HF 190600UTC 16.0N 125.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT

#17 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Nov 16, 2005 7:41 am

WTPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 14.4N 130.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 130.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 14.9N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 15.3N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 15.7N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.0N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.3N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.6N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.8N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 130.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z,
162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.//

#18 Postby **P.K.** » Wed Nov 16, 2005 8:17 am

40kts

WTPQ20 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 14.0N 129.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 14.6N 128.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
48HF 181200UTC 15.2N 127.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
72HF 191200UTC 16.1N 125.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT =

#19 Postby **P.K.** » Wed Nov 16, 2005 8:28 am

6am GMT models:

FXPQ20 RJTD 160600
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523)
PSTN 160600UTC 13.9N 129.4E
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 35KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 13.9N 130.3E -003HPA +004KT
T=12 13.9N 130.9E -009HPA +005KT
T=18 14.1N 131.3E -009HPA +009KT
T=24 14.3N 131.3E -014HPA +015KT
T=30 14.5N 131.0E -014HPA +018KT
T=36 14.6N 130.5E -021HPA +021KT
T=42 14.7N 129.8E -028HPA +029KT
T=48 15.0N 128.9E -038HPA +036KT
T=54 15.2N 128.1E -034HPA +034KT
T=60 15.4N 127.2E -038HPA +036KT
T=66 15.8N 126.5E -040HPA +036KT
T=72 16.2N 126.0E -045HPA +040KT
T=78 16.8N 125.7E -047HPA +043KT
T=84 17.5N 125.5E -047HPA +044KT
T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=

#20 Postby **Dave C** » Wed Nov 16, 2005 2:09 pm

I was just checking a sat. pic. of this system from the Navy site and the outflow is really bursting in most directions. Could rapidly deepen before Phillipians landfall.

TD Bolaven (24W): Dissipates over Luzon

TD Bolaven (24W): Dissipates over Luzon

wow

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