What will the first 2006 outlook numbers of Dr Gray be like?

[cycloneye]

Well since the Atlantic Basin is now quiet after Beta let's have a discussion about what do you think will Dr Grays numbers be like when he releases in early December (December 6) his first outlook for the 2006 season.

My take is that Dr Gray will have 14/7/3 in his first outlook for 2006.

[HurryKane]

ugly/ugly/real ugly

[DESTRUCTION5]

I can't believe even the worst naysayer would have #'s that low after the past 2 years..I say 16/11/5 and thats conservative...

[Scorpion]

Dr Gray always has low numbers for his first outlook as a precaution. I believe his Dec outlook for 2005 was 11/6/3 or something like that.

[cycloneye]

Always in his first outlook his numbers start low but then at apriil,may and august outlooks he goes up in the numbers. In the first outlook for 2005 he began with 11/6/3 and ended up with 20/11/6.

[DrStorm]

Are his predictions even worth much anymore?

[Ivanhater]

he already said chances are very low for another season like 2004 and 2005, so i think they will be 12/4/2

[gilbert88]

He will start at 14/8/4 but his final outlook will be around 19/11/6

[HURAKAN]

14/7/3 (BEING CONSERVATIVE)

[f5]

30/20/15 (depends on wacky trend)

if i said last year 2005 would have between 20-25 named storms i would of been called all kinds of names

[cjrciadt]

30/20/15 (depends on wacky trend)

if i said last year 2005 would have between 20-25 named storms i would of been called all kinds of names

Very True
I ilke the ugly/ugly/very ugly prediction instead of number from now on.

[The RAT]

Bad/Worse/OH MY GOD!!

[dhweather]

OH/MY/GOD!!!!



I'll GUESS right now


14/7/3

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Dr. Gray and others may consider hotter temp impacts

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be
used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may
not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed
by any professional institution including storm2k.org For
Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

UNOFFICIAL ATLANTIC HURRICANE OUTLOOK & REASONING- 2006 AND BEYOND
ASSUMING NO EL NINO SETS UP; FOR NON-EL NINO YEARS ONLY:
SSTs to remain high...More high pressure and less shear
due to hotter ssts and hotter temps promoting more
sinking air, the sinking air sets up as high pressure to
reduce shear...and hotter temps means the hot ridges
last well into late into the season with September-type
ridging likely in Oct/November of 2006 or a later year,
thus reducing shear and aiding in temperature gradient
contrast with lower basin pressures in caribbean/GOM
which meteorologically speaking all equates to more
favorable activity well throughout 2006 or a later year.
Due to the warm SSTs and the dual feedback mechanism
that takes place between warm SSTs and ridging I expect
an early start to the season once SSTs are warm enough
to galvanize/promote sinking high pressure that in turn
aids in hurricane formation by inherent shear reduction.
These same feedback mechanism factors will allow activity
to continue through the latter part of the season, probably
past the traditional end date for the season. This may include
cape verde systems appearing until much later than normal
given the aforementioned dual feedback mechanism
enhancement that would galvanize powerful manifestation
of Atlantic Ridging.
The SST facets of Enhanced Ridging feedback mechanisms
would promote the development and rapid intensification of
very potent systems. The number of very powerful hurricanes
will also be a lot higher than normal due to this fact. A heated,
more unstable atmosphere, contrasting more intensely in terms
of pressure gradient with a very powerful high pressure ridge
driven by the enhanced riding feedback mechanism, along with
additional moisture content threshold increases and subsequent
rainfall intensity increases will help to drive more powerful
storms. Intense convection due to enhanced heat content will
lead to more rapid pressure drops and subsequently much
stronger storms.

Bottom Line: 2006 and/or a later year will likely be VERY ACTIVE/RECORD ACTIVE

Rational Numerical Guess:
2006 AND/OR FUTURE YEAR:
Named Storms- 25
Hurricanes- 15
Major Hurricanes- 9
25/15/9
Number of Category 5's: Between 3 and 5

[WindRunner]

Number of Category 5's: Between 3 and 5

I think (and sure hope) that's a little high!

[WxGuy1]

Are we speculating about someone's speculation?

[Weatherfreak14]

IMO, it will be about the same or a little higher next year. Hope I'm wrong.

[WindRunner]

Are we speculating about someone's speculation?

And if we are?


Would you rather me just post mine? OK . . .

17/9/4

[fasterdisaster]

I predict he'll do something like this:

December-13/7/3
March-15/8/4
May-17/10/5

[wxwatcher91]

I think his numbers will be 15/9/4