Robert
000
WTNT44 KNHC 201500
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005
WILMA CONTINUES ON ITS WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING...295/6...WHICH
REMAINS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. FOR THIS
REASON...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ON THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAOB DATA IN FLORIDA AND TEXAS SUGGEST THAT
RIDGING IN THE GULF IS WEAKENING AND IT IS STILL EXPECTED THAT
WILMA WILL BEGIN TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET ARE BEING INGESTED INTO
THE 12Z MODELS AND WE WILL SOON SEE WHAT IMPACT THESE DATA HAVE ON
THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE BASIC SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IS UNCHANGED.
RIDGING IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WILMA ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTHWARD
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A LARGE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS A GENERALLY SLOWER RECURVATURE AND ACCELERATION.
AS FAR AS THE FLORIDA THREAT IS CONCERNED...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
THREAT REMAINS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
KEYS...AND IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO NARROW THAT DOWN ANY FURTHER.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INNER EYEWALL CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...AND EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE'S
HIGHEST WINDS ALREADY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER EYEWALL.
ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...
RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE PROGRESSES...AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE
STATUS BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN. WILMA IS NOW EXPECTED TO
SPEND ENOUGH TIME IN OR NEAR THE YUCATAN TO RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER STORM IN THE GULF WHEN IT APPROACHES FLORIDA.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/1500Z 18.4N 85.5W 125 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 19.1N 86.2W 130 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 20.3N 86.9W 140 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 21.2N 87.0W 130 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 22.0N 86.2W 120 KT
72HR VT 23/1200Z 24.0N 84.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 24/1200Z 28.5N 78.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 25/1200Z 40.0N 68.0W 60 KT
$$
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Page last modified: Thursday, 20-Oct-2005 11:04:51 EDT
