Unofficial SkeetoCast #1

[SkeetoBite]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Be gentle... it's my first time.

Geez... making these maps by hand is harder than I remembered from last year.

Anyhow, here's my first unofficial personal SkeetoCast. I think the GFDL has a pretty good handle on the track, maybe a little south at landfall. We'll know better tomorrow night about a reasonable landfall location projection. As for intensity, I think it's reasonable to go to Cat 4 for a brief time before a little increasing shear, a couple gulps of dry air and the bump with the trough to force the turn. Slowly weakening approaching the coast due to lower H2O temps in the track area. I think the windfield will be a bit larger (best guess 25% to 50% larger) than Charley 2004 was, but not enormous by any stretch. Assumes same error envelope as the official forecasts.

[cjrciadt]

Very nice, I hope it weakens that much, but it will still be Charley 2 for me here in Central FL.

[Amanzi]

Great job skeeto!

[cycloneye]

For being your first forecast you did great.Now let's see how it all pans out in reallity.

[PBGator]

Looks a little too north, the 8am model runs are shifting a bit South.

[melhow]

Question about the wind field on your map. Does the first little green circle indicate hurricane force winds, and the second darker green circle t.s. force? I'm guessing that it does, but just wanna be sure.

[Javlin]

Your last little X does not boe will for the NE US with all the rain up that way in the last 2 weeks.

[Ixolib]

And with the trough well-depicted!! Looks like ~Ft. Myers?? And if she does make and maintain CAT 4 for any period of time, surge will most probably be a much bigger issue than it was with Charley - especially because of the angle of approach - for areas south of landfall.

In any event, the map looks great and I like the associated reasoning. Showing that SW to NE flow with your arrow might really help some folks better understand the atmospheric impact involved here, and why that hard right turn is not so unreasonable to consider!!

[SkeetoBite]

Question about the wind field on your map. Does the first little green circle indicate hurricane force winds, and the second darker green circle t.s. force? I'm guessing that it does, but just wanna be sure.

I copied the color scheme from SkeetobiteWeather.com. See below:

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/windfield.asp

[Terry]

I am not very happy with you right now, Skeet, since you took the path right across two of my houses.... and yours also! I respectfully request a different forecast path.

[vbhoutex]

Nicely done!!! I think you have the intensity very close to what may happen given the cooling waters around FL(not that they are cool), maybe a low CAT3 at landfall. Track may be a little N, but I think the track is the bigger challenge this time with so many factors coming into play. I am going to be very interested in what happens after the probable transit of FL. I think the East coast needs to keep an eye on Wilma too, albeit from afar for the time being.

[SkeetoBite]

Thanks all for your comments.

Terry, You know any reliable forecast MUST include the location of your neighbor's real estate holdings! I was going to send it out to your house in The Bahamas too, but that would just be mean!