JB on west caribbean development

[Ivanhater]

THURSDAY: BIG LONG-RANGE PROBLEMS...NOT TO MENTION SHORT-RANGE ONES.

1.) GFS number busts are coming for the weekend in the Rockies (no cold shot) and the Lakes Saturday through Monday (from early last week). It underestimates the second high. There are abysmal busts on the Northeast trof this weekend.

2.) Western U.S. trof splits upon entry. The system dives southward and is impressive, but is probably a prelude to the way of the winter overall as warm water in the Pacific where it is can fuel such things. Get ready. The point is that there is no cold air and snow threat for the Rockies this weekend (see previous runs from early week).

3.) The typhoon is no help to me until it commits, as it has turned into a lollygagger. It may be throwing veiled hints for next week as to the slow movement of what I think is going to form in the Caribbean.

4.) The SOI is now strongly positive in the dailies, and another surge up even higher is coming in 30-day running means.

5.) A large ridge is building near 70 east, but it's still a bit early to slap on Cahir's connection, but north Atlantic blocking and arctic blocking are on the increase. The time of year makes application difficult.

6.) Northeastern flood: When a system that started south of the Cape Verdes winds up over Delaware, and there is connection that had developed from South America to New England, well, you see the results. The system reaches its heaviest rain and highest winds today and tomorrow, and does not need phasing to continue to do dirty work. I can't say much more about what is happening and what has happened, except the final part will not be as severe in the Maritimes as I thought. But Jersey, and now coming into New England, well, I haven't seen an email yet saying it was overdone. Southeast New England gets the worst of storm tonight into tomorrow.

7.) Tropical development, based on the pattern, should occur in the western Caribbean next week.

8.) Amplification of the trof again over the East probably between days 10 and 15 may a.) have a longer, stronger impact on temperatures in much of nation since blocking is coming back, b.) reward my stubborn belief in how the hurricane season ends, since this is not the kind of storm I envisioned even if it is damaging and had the link between the two branches, and c.) start the pattern into winter early ala a couple of the analog years...1995-1996 and 2002-2003. Note that both years had the Northeast dry in September and wet in October.

9.) The Plains are in such a pattern evolution that is up for grabs, but later in the season will see the same kind of thing (negative NAO, negative AO and trof amplification with western split is a colder pattern).

10.) NOAA idea: Since there is so much email, here is what I am going to say and no mas. We have, using a standard deviation scale, a moderate winter forecasted nationwide with standard deviations from normal warm of around 1 in the West and around 1 cold in the Northeast. That would be, for instance, the 25th through 45th coldest in New York City in the last 100 years. Now I do have worries it could be much colder, rather than warmer, but the point is numbers are forecasted. NOAA has a coin toss in the East and has a 60% chance of warm in the center of the nation, but doesn't say what warm is. Last year, New York City was 1.7 above normal, but with the late cold and yet another snowy winter, not a lot of people thought it was warm. The moral is, NOAA does not issue a forecast, they issue guidance, and it is valuable tool to use and look at, but it is not an actual forecast, and I wish they would quit saying it is. Put the numbers out. What are you afraid of? The worst that can happen is you are wrong, right? But please (and yes, this is a message to them) come clean, you aren't "forecasting" anything. Me saying there is a 55% chance Penn State goes to a bowl game doesn't say much, for there are a lot of different Bowls (ranges in temps), and besides, what's the big deal as far as shadowed one way 5-10%?

One more thing, you can't take a 1-in 3-scale (below, normal and above) and simply adjust it to a 50-50 scale. If you are saying, for instance, that there is a 5% greater-than-normal chance of below normal, it means there is a 62% chance of normal or above. That can't go from 5/33 to 5/50. By that I mean, the ratio of something that is 5 greater than 33 means the number would have to be greater than 5 over 50...more like 7.5 over 50. And it would have to be a strict 50/50 dividing line since there is either below or above.

But what are a few details and misnomers among friends, right?

Cumbaya, brothers, cumbaya.

Ok, game-set-match with the NOAA press release. I am sure Henry would love to comment on it, so let's get his blood pressure up.

Ciao for now.

[skysummit]

Wow...he really went out on a limb with his Tropical Outlook on that discussion.

[artist]

[Swimdude]

7.) Tropical development, based on the pattern, should occur in the western Caribbean next week.

Sure sounds like he knows what he's talking about. Can't get any more vague than that!

[NastyCat4]

Throw enough mud against the wall, and some will stick.

[vbhoutex]

NO more warnings!!!!! Stop bashing JB whenever someone posts something here that he has written. Suspensions will be given without warning if it continues! Storm2k is a weather discussion site not a bash site. TAKE THE BASHING ELSEWHERE!!!

[txwatcher91]

NO more warnings!!!!! Stop bashing JB whenever someone posts something here that he has written. Suspensions will be given without warning if it continues! Storm2k is a weather discussion site not a bash site. TAKE THE BASHING ELSEWHERE!!!

I agree. Well said.

[rainstorm]

if the central atlantic low moves out and leaves the dist behind in the carib and it moves west, then a low could form next week

[NastyCat4]

A LARGE BAND OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE PORTION OF THE
DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE ATLANTIC IS MORE LIKELY TO
BECOME A NON-TROPICAL LOW AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THE PORTION
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL PROBABLY MOVE LITTLE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.

Right from the NHC--likely to be non-tropical. Meaning, lots more T-storms for everybody.

[Thunder44]

This is from the 5:30pm TWO:

A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF JAMAICA HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY. WHILE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. HOWEVER... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
SLOWLY WESTWARD.

[krysof]

This is from the 5:30pm TWO:

A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF JAMAICA HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY. WHILE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. HOWEVER... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
SLOWLY WESTWARD.

hmm, Wilma maybe?

[x-y-no]

Well, I agree with him on point 1. The GFS is going to bust big time - it's dead wrong about the low in the Gulf of Alaska, and consequently it gets the whole downstream pattern wrong on subsequent days.

Tropical development in the western Caribbean next week certainly makes sense both climatologically and because all the global model indicate broad low pressure there in that timeframe. I wouldn't bet against it.

[CHRISTY]

local mets here in south florida said that this area south of cuba had to watched for development in the coming days..They said it was getting better organized!

[george_r_1961]

Im seeing lots of clouds and convection but nothing that looks in the least bit organized. More rain for someone but thats about it. Could see something non tropical spin up down down there though.

[Steve H.]

Well, I disagree with that. Check out the 12Z Euro and GFS and CMC ensembles today. More members jumping on the idea of development. Euro is back to a closed developing low near the west central coast of Cuba late next week, so I don't think this current area of disturbed weather is what they're showing. Well, except the NAM of course, which develops it. Anything developing down there next week will be purely tropical

[artist]

there is rotation that I can see down there - just not certain if it is mid level or low level.

[THead]

I think there's way more than a 55% chance of Penn St going to a bowl game. Thats about the only thing I read of that, that I understood......

[fasterdisaster]

This is from the 5:30pm TWO:

A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF JAMAICA HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY. WHILE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. HOWEVER... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
SLOWLY WESTWARD.

Hmmmm....that's exactly what they said for Katrina and Rita

[curtadams]

I don't see what's unfavorable about the upper winds. Shear over the area south of Jamaica is < 20 knots and some is less than 10. What's so unfavorable about that? The area is basically under an upper-level anticyclone from all the convection over the past week - that's usually favorable. I can see that the size and multiple competing centers are unfavorable, but that's a different issue.

[skysummit]

Dan Milham on WDSU New Orleans just said that LLC may be trying to form in this area, but it's not just yet. He normally doesn't give anything in the tropics attention.