Northern GOM landfalls

[f5]

it seems like everytime there is a CAT 4 or 5 in the GOM they seem to always weaken ex Lili,Ivan,Dennis,Opal,Federic,Georges ect

[Anonymous]

Sometimes, we get lucky...examples:::

Ivan, Dennis, Lili

Sometimes, we get them as Cat 4-5....examples:::

Camille, Frederic, Katrina

[mtm4319]

Sometimes, we get lucky...examples:::

Ivan, Dennis, Lili

Sometimes, we get them as Cat 4-5....examples:::

Camille, Frederic, Katrina

I thought Frederic was a strong Cat 3.

[Anonymous]

Sometimes, we get lucky...examples:::

Ivan, Dennis, Lili

Sometimes, we get them as Cat 4-5....examples:::

Camille, Frederic, Katrina

I thought Frederic was a strong Cat 3.

I think it is classified as 115 kt or 130 mph, so technically a cat 3, but really a technicality.

[HurricaneBill]

I think someone said the hurricanes that pose the biggest threat of a major landfall are the ones that enter the Gulf as a Category 2.

Although, I'm curious. Would a midget hurricane like Charley have weakened as much if he moved towards the panhandle?

[rns2001]

since i was in Ivan for 14 hours, it didn't feel weak.

[Derek Ortt]

Charley likely would have weakened faster than normal, as Dennis did since it could not pull in energy from the warmer waters to the south

[f5]

since i was in Ivan for 14 hours, it didn't feel weak.

he could of been 140-150 if it weren't for that cool shelf water

[Lindaloo]

Sometimes, we get lucky...examples:::

Ivan, Dennis, Lili

Sometimes, we get them as Cat 4-5....examples:::

Camille, Frederic, Katrina

I thought Frederic was a strong Cat 3.

Frederic was a 4.

[Lowpressure]

Frederic-135 mph 27.99 pressure at landfall. Ocean Springs MS, I was there.

[wxman57]

Frederic-135 mph 27.99 pressure at landfall. Ocean Springs MS, I was there.

Are you saying that Frederic made landfall in Ocean Springs, MS? Actually, Frederic made landfall between the MS/AL state line and Mobile Bay. Ocean Springs was outside the western eyewall - about 30 miles west of landfall. Ocean Springs was probably outside the sustained 75 mph wind field. My mother was in Pascagoula for Frederic. She just passed through the western part of the eye. I was on the phone with her when the wind calmed down briefly.

[beachbum_al]

Nope! I was there...MS/AL state line and Mobile Bay! 1979~nine year olds and will never forget it!

[wxman57]

Nope! I was there...MS/AL state line and Mobile Bay! 1979~nine year olds and will never forget it!

Nope what?

[wxman57]

To answer the mail question posed in this thread, there is a very good reason why many hurricanes are weakening as they approach the northern Gulf Coast. Most hurricanes reach maximum intensity while trapped beneath the subtopical high to the north. They would be moving to the west while at max intensity. Outflow is generally best and shear is lower with a westward-moving hurricane. But once the hurricane makes a turn to the north, it's exposed to increasing wind shear across the northern Gulf, and possibly dry air entrainment. Upper-level winds are rarely as favorable for development with a northward-moving hurricane.

So it makes perfect sense that the majority of hurricanes weaken once they make the turn and begin moving to the north. The weakening doesn't necessarily happen immediately, but weakening is more likely to occur closer to the Gulf Coast as wind shear increases just prior to landfall.

[vbhoutex]

So why is there increasing shear once they move North as opposed to West? What am I missing in your explanation? I thought that some of the weakening was due to the shallowness of the shelf water in many places along the N GOM also. IE , less heat content to use for fuel.

[arkess7]

I think someone said the hurricanes that pose the biggest threat of a major landfall are the ones that enter the Gulf as a Category 2.

Although, I'm curious. Would a midget hurricane like Charley have weakened as much if he moved towards the panhandle?

Charley a midget? I dont think so.....yea it might not have been a big hurricane like katrina or rita....but ive never seen so much damage 100 to 150 miles inland in Orlando in my life!!!!! Just awful!!!! My parents and friends all had no power for a week or more and damage to millions of peoples homes.......and there are so many trees gone......and then Punta Gorda was just devestated......We didnt get a drop or rain from Charley up here....but i drove down and visited family and freinds and will never forget how my 'hometown' was damaged.

[senorpepr]

I think someone said the hurricanes that pose the biggest threat of a major landfall are the ones that enter the Gulf as a Category 2.

Although, I'm curious. Would a midget hurricane like Charley have weakened as much if he moved towards the panhandle?

Charley a midget? I dont think so.....yea it might not have been a big hurricane like katrina or rita....but ive never seen so much damage 100 to 150 miles inland in Orlando in my life!!!!! Just awful!!!! My parents and friends all had no power for a week or more and damage to millions of peoples homes.......and there are so many trees gone......and then Punta Gorda was just devestated......We didnt get a drop or rain from Charley up here....but i drove down and visited family and freinds and will never forget how my 'hometown' was damaged.

I think he was referring to Charley's size as "midget-like," not his strength.

[john potter]

On rare occasions, northward moving hurricanes are embedded in the eastern flows of strong troughs (troughs very pronounced even at 300 mb levels) -- in such cases, rapidly moving hurricanes retain surface form and intensity into higher latitudes; examples: Hazle in 1954, the 1938 Great New England Hurricane (with hurricane windfield still intact in Ontario); I have to wonder what were the surrounding dynamics that preserved Camille's Cat 5 intensity at its MS landfall?

[mtm4319]

Sometimes, we get lucky...examples:::

Ivan, Dennis, Lili

Sometimes, we get them as Cat 4-5....examples:::

Camille, Frederic, Katrina

I thought Frederic was a strong Cat 3.

Frederic was a 4.

The NHC says otherwise. I realize it was probably a borderline case, but living in Mobile all my life I've heard quite a lot about Frederic, and all of what I've heard is that it was considered a Category 3.

[Ivanhater]

ya, frederic was a 3