WAVE AT 11N/35W

[OURAGAN]

The Wave at 11-12N/35W seems to organize and is begining to firing,
You can see some bandind features
What do you think about it?

http://maps.weather.com/images/sat/tropsat_720x486.jpg

[cycloneye]

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW ANALYZED AS JUST A 1010 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 11N34W AND THE WAVE IS DROPPED. THIS LOW IS NEAR
STATIONARY. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTERED WITH A MUCH BROADER
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 33W-36W.

8 AM Discussion.Wave was dropped and now it is analized as a low.

[cycloneye]

SAT IMAGERY


The area continues to show a good signature and it has a low embedded as the sat pic above shows.

[O Town]

Interesting. Not very big, but convection just started to fire a little.

[Hyperstorm]

Cycloneye, this is the system that we were talking about yesterday. The system had a beautiful and broad low level circulation, but convection had died off during the morning hours due to dry air in the mid-levels just to its north. However, satellite images this morning reveal a MUCH tigher and very well-defined LLC near 12.5N 35W. There are two factors right now, which have kept this system from becoming even more organized:

1) Dry mid-level air just to its north. Apparently, this dry air has not allowed the well-defined LLC to develop much deep convection.

2) A lesser factor is moderate northerly shear, which is disrupting the cloud pattern. It is not strong, but it is keeping it in marginal conditions.

The system has remained nearly stationary due to very weak steering currents. A high pressure ridge is forecast by the models to strengthen soon north of it, which should allow it to begin a general W-WNW heading.

The hardest part (which was developing a well-defined LLC) is now done. The only ingredient needed right now for this system to be classified is the development of deeper convection over the center. In fact, the system is impressively trying to develop as it has attached itself to the ITCZ in the form of a curved band to the east of the low-level center. This will help the system feed off moisture into its core if the dry air subsides.

One thing is for sure...the slow movement has been a favorable factor thus far...

[caribepr]

One thing is for sure...the slow movement has been a favorable factor thus far...

How do you define *favorable*?

[OURAGAN]

This wave is organizing really and is nearly stationary, it is mentioning in the TWO and the TWD:


ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 600 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL...SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD.




AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
12N34W...NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 33W-36W.


Look-at the bottom to the right of these pictures , here are the links:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

http://maps.weather.com/images/sat/tropsat_720x486.jpg

I think it will be pprobably be the next invest.

But Where it will go?

[OURAGAN]

This wave is organizing really and is nearly stationary, it is mentioning in the TWO and the TWD:


ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 600 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL...SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD.




AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
12N34W...NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 33W-36W.


Look-at the bottom to the right of these pictures , here are the links:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

http://maps.weather.com/images/sat/tropsat_720x486.jpg

I think it will be pprobably be the next invest.

But Where it will go?

[CHRISTY]

its already heading north its a fish!

[krysof]

the ridge is building though, it needs a good trough to pick it up

[cycloneye]

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL...SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD.


10:30 PM TWO.

[caribepr]

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL...SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD.


10:30 PM TWO.

Northward is good! Northward is pretty!

[OURAGAN]

The wave it's really organizing now, it's much bettre than the disorganized 99 l in the west caribbeen.
it will be the next invest and the next depression.

[tornadochaser86]

what do u think will develop first this low or L99?

[TheEuropean]

May be atlantic wave will first develop:

TWO 530 AM:
THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM ALREADY HAS A SURFACE CIRCULATION SO AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER OPEN WATERS.

I think it has good chances to become "Stan".

[cycloneye]

SAT IMAGERY


The area continues to show a good signature and it has a low embedded as the sat pic above shows.

Convection really has fired and looks like it's close to TD status.

[O Town]

When does it become an invest? What would qualify it?

Edit:
You just answered my question with the new thread now 90L.