Distrabance over the Gulf of Mexico becoming organized

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Quickscats shows that it doe's have a LLC at the surface. In it appears to be drifting to the southwest ever so slowly. The front pushing down from the north appears to be weaking. But it is pushing it southward. A area of convection has formed near the center...I think we got a developing cyclone here. This area stands alot better chance of becoming Stan then invest 99L.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas19.png

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A quastion is this the remants of MS.RITA? In if this doe's reorganized will it be named Rita like they renamed Ivan?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't understand that 5:30 discussion. I see a LLC moving southwestward with a developing area of convection. But thats just me.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[Cookiely]

TWC thinks this area is not a concern. Seem to think that it will be picked up and absorbed by a trough. Any thoughts on this?

[rainstorm]

Elsewhere in the tropics, the offspring of Rita is a weak area of low pressure meandering near the mouth of the Mississippi River. It will get a kick southwest into the Gulf Thursday and Thursday night and may eventually moisten things up along the Texas coast on Sunday.

http://www.accuweather.com

[Thunder44]

I don't understand that 5:30 discussion. I see a LLC moving southwestward with a developing area of convection. But thats just me.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

If you take a look at water vapor image, you can see how unfavorable conditions are for significant. in the GOM. TPC is not going to be bother with a system with just few thunderstorms around the center.

[O Town]

I agree with Thunder. And have you look in the gulf latley? The little bit of convection that was there is disappearing quickly. In the last hour is has almost disappeared, if it was something this is the time when convection should be getting stronger.

[vbhoutex]

It should be picked up and absorbed by the incoming trough even if it does get further out over the GOM. I don't expect anything from it.

From this mornings TWO:
A SMALL AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS
MINIMAL...AND UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT BEFORE AN APPROACHING FRONT SWEEPS THIS
SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE COAST TONIGHT.

[skysummit]

This is from NOLA's discussion:

A TROPICAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX HAS BEEN MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM OFF DAUPHIN ISLAND TO NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OVERNIGHT. ON RADAR...IT HAS LOOKED IMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME FEEDER BANDING AND A DISTINCT CENTER BUT ONLY A CENTRAL
PRESSURE AROUND 1010 MB...WITH A GRADIENT OF ABOUT 3 MB OR
ROUGHLY 15 KNOTS OF WIND. THIS FEATURE MAY ACTUALLY BE A RESIDUAL
VORTICITY FEATURE FROM RITA...BUT DIFFICULT TO TRACE ITS ORIGIN
FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. NONETHELESS...THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN
LOW TOPPED AND WARM WITH SOME NEW DEEPER CONVECTION ERUPTING NEAR
BUOY 42040. MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE IS 210/07 KT.

[Brent]

It'll get absorbed by the front... I don't think it would be Rita even if it were to develop. The original Rita was eaten by the last front. This would be a piece of Rita, but not the original storm.

[P.K.]

It'll get absorbed by the front... I don't think it would be Rita even if it were to develop. The original Rita was eaten by the last front. This would be a piece of Rita, but not the original storm.

Rita is now off the coast of Greenland and is currently at 970hPa. http://www.wetter-zentrale.de/pics/bracka.gif