East Atlantic Wave

[Ivanhater]

just noticed the wave sw of cape verde, i havnt seen anything about it

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

[gatorcane]

it looks promising but looks like it has fish written all over it.

[Ivanhater]

it looks promising but looks like it has fish written all over it.

not a bad thing

[cjrciadt]

I saw it too. but did not want to bring it up yet.

[drezee]

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N26W MOVING W 10 KT. VERY SMALL
LOW LEVEL SWIRL WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OBSERVED
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS N AND W OF THE LOW SWIRL WITHIN 90 NM OF
LINE 14N25W-13N28W-10N27W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE
12N18W-14N25W.

[gatorcane]

future movement?

[bvigal]

Looks much better than last night, but it does seEm destined to go north. Unless this is what Luis was seeing on GFS yesterday!

NHC obviously doesn't expect anything soon...
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE RITA...LOCATED ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ON TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 295 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[superfly]

The associated low, may be closing.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/img ... ap?545,230

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looks Closed to me...

[Brent]

11:30am TWO:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

[gatorcane]

as it moves westward???

[superfly]

Looks Closed to me...

Doesn't look closed on the east side.

[curtadams]

as it moves westward???

Due west on the last GFS model I saw (as well as an experimental Penn State product). This model made Philippe a Cat 4 so don't short Caribbean property yet.

[Patrick99]

It looks pretty good, but even so, it doesn't seem to be in a hurry to develop. The East Atlantic just isn't the place this year.

[caribepr]

It looks pretty good, but even so, it doesn't seem to be in a hurry to develop. The East Atlantic just isn't the place this year.

From your lips (or typing fingers!) to God's ear...

[krysof]

You know, taking how crazy this season has been, I would not be surprised if this wave did something. This year it's hard to follow climatology. The SST's are very warm around the cape verde islands so anything is possible.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 241504
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
RITA...LOCATED NEAR JASPER TEXAS.


SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER A FEW
HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS DEVELOPING A
SURFACE CIRCULATION BUT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atvs.html

LLC is already visible with the EATL wave. To better see it, you can zoom it.

[cycloneye]

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 700 NM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 12N36W MOVING W 10 KT. THE LOW CURRENTLY HAS AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION BUT A 2032 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A
CENTER NEAR 12N33W EXTENDING NE/SW. THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WAS
ALONG 40W HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED WITH THE LOW NOW THAT THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE...AND THERE IS NO
TRACEABLE BOUNDARY NEAR 40W. TSTM ACTIVITY IS STILL DISORGANIZED
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN
32W-39W. THE LOW IS LOCATED UNDER STRONG SLY SHEAR ON THE E SIDE
OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N46W BUT THIS PATTERN MAY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 36-48 HRS.


The above from the 8 AM Discussion:


Let's see if Stan forms from this wave.

[Frank2]

Yes, the wave near 12N 36W seems to have the most potential to develop (the wave to the northwest of that disturbance now more in a postion to recurve early).

This morning's TWD has also mentioned the disturbance at approximately 12N 65W - this seems to be something else to possibly consider in the next couple of days...

Frank