KPRC is reporting there is an eastward trend to the models. several of them pointing directly at Galveston (worst-case scenario), but a couple are moving into La instead.
He says the trough is weakening which is causing these models to change.
local met reporting eastward trend of models
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Huckster
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Hey, you mean the ridge is weakening? Remember, the weaker the ridge, the greater the propensity for the storm to turn north. The stronger the ridge, the more westwardly heading the storm will maintain.
Last edited by Huckster on Thu Sep 22, 2005 2:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Houstonia
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f5 wrote:where does that put N.O?
Check out the wunderground models, you will see the trend the models are making. I don't know anything about models though, so I'm not making any guesses.
I'm definitely in -removed- mode though... I don't want this storm in Houston.
Wunderground models here: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200518_model.html
The graphic looks a little shabby right now, but you can still see the model lines.
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SoupBone wrote:I wonder how I would fare here in Baton Rouge if this thing took the UKMET track? Trying to figure out if my family should leave or not...
What would have me most concerned it that the xtrap from the time eclipse began to when it ended is pointing near tx la border. It will curve more than that if indeed this is a true heading...
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Huckster
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SoupBone wrote:I wonder how I would fare here in Baton Rouge if this thing took the UKMET track? Trying to figure out if my family should leave or not...
The wunderground.com map is all goofed up.
I'm in Baton Rouge also. I think Baton Rouge will fare "ok" unless this thing comes inland east of Cameron Parish. The last large major hurricane to strike the upper Texas coast/SW LA was Audrey in 1957 which produced winds up to around 60 mph in Baton Rouge. Katrina brought wind gusts of around 60 mph here also. If I were you, I'd stay here but be prepared for possible power outages. I was out for 3 1/2 days with Katrina, which wasn't fun. Another thing, the strongest winds from Katrina in Baton Rouge were from the W and NW. The strongest winds from Rita are likely to be from the SE. If by some chance we in BR did get winds up to 60 mph, a lot of trees that did not fall from Katrina will fall this time. Be ready, that's my advice.
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ericinmia wrote:Don't give much credince to that weather undergound model map... it is messed up at the moment, and not plotting the tracks right. Heck, it didn't even plot the initialization points properly... this isn't coming up from the yucatan..
worst case scenario a landfall between freeport/galveston will drive a high storm surge into galveston bay
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