Rita HAS moved more WNW in last Few Hours.........

[Dean4Storms]

Don't have to believe me, click link and add Trop Fcst. Pts. at top of page.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[txwatcher91]

Do you mean Rita

[Ola]

nvm

[djtil]

yep...bobbles....currently undergoing a due west bobble to take it nearly dead center over the forecast point.

[N2Storms]

Hey Dean, I agree and there was a link that someone provided in another thread that showed that Rita had a very definitive N component over the last 3 or 4 hours. That would seem to be in line with the slight decrease in forward speed as well. If this is a trend, then the folks in SW Louisiana had better become a little more vigilant. Maybe the high is retreating as forecasted, the BPs all over the state of FL have been falling all afternoon...I guess we'll know more in 12 hrs or so...

[Dean4Storms]

Do you mean Rita

Yep, chalk that one to Budweiser and a couple of fine looking ladies by the pool!!

LOL!!

[raynpa]

yep...bobbles....currently undergoing a due west bobble to take it nearly dead center over the forecast point.

Nope actually the NHC updated their forecast points it is still jogging wnw.

[Dean4Storms]

Hey Dean, I agree and there was a link that someone provided in another thread that showed that Rita had a very definitive N component over the last 3 or 4 hours. That would seem to be in line with the slight decrease in forward speed as well. If this is a trend, then the folks in SW Louisiana had better become a little more vigilant. Maybe the high is retreating as forecasted, the BPs all over the state of FL have been falling all afternoon...I guess we'll know more in 12 hrs or so...

Hey N2,

I'm keeping an eye on this, that ULL in the BOC and the high in TX. could spell trouble if they don't bug out as forecasted. My pressure here in Destin has dropped like a rock all afternoon and now down to 29.88" and the trend is straight down. It was at 29.99" around 11am. So I'm getting perplexed.

[Ivanhater]

its obvious its moving north of the forecast points and all the models, hard to argue against that...we will just have to watch and see what happens

[N2Storms]

Hey N2,

I'm keeping an eye on this, that ULL in the BOC and the high in TX. could spell trouble if they don't bug out as forecasted. My pressure here in Destin has dropped like a rock all afternoon and now down to 29.88" and the trend is straight down. It was at 29.99" around 11am. So I'm getting perplexed.




Well, it kind of surprised me that the pressures are what they are when this HP is supposed to be so strong...I'm not really too concerned with any direct impact, but I certainly would not be surprised to see Rita impact the central La coast in a more profound way than what they are currently projecting...I'd give anything for just an inch or two of rain from Rita...

[dwg71]

NHC 7AM points 24.4N 85.3W and at 24.4N and 86.8W. That's 0.0N and 1.3W over 9 hours. That's Due west.

[Ivanhater]

NHC 7AM points 24.4N 85.3W and at 24.4N and 86.8W. That's 0.0N and 1.3W over 9 hours. That's Due west.

ummm, please tell me your not saying it hasnt gone north in 9 hours....look at satellite

[Dean4Storms]

Hey N2,

I'm keeping an eye on this, that ULL in the BOC and the high in TX. could spell trouble if they don't bug out as forecasted. My pressure here in Destin has dropped like a rock all afternoon and now down to 29.88" and the trend is straight down. It was at 29.99" around 11am. So I'm getting perplexed.




Well, it kind of surprised me that the pressures are what they are when this HP is supposed to be so strong...I'm not really too concerned with any direct impact, but I certainly would not be surprised to see Rita impact the central La coast in a more profound way than what they are currently projecting...I'd give anything for just an inch or two of rain from Rita...

Moisture has rapidly increased here today and they were not forecasting it until tomorrow at 50%, it has already rained twice here. There was a concern mentioned in a AFD a few days ago of the ridge holding in TX. and a weakness developing over our area at the tail end of the front that swung off the Carolina Coast last night. I'm beginning to wonder. Also, the tail end of that front is what the GFS dives southward east of Florida toward the Bahamas and tries to develop it come the weekend. I'm not saying that this is what is going on and that the storm is headed for the Florida Panhandle, but it could be enough to bring her closer than I'd like. Just better keep an eye on her tonight, because any change will become evident tonight.

[dwg71]

NHC 7AM points 24.4N 85.3W and at 24.4N and 86.8W. That's 0.0N and 1.3W over 9 hours. That's Due west.

ummm, please tell me your not saying it hasnt gone north in 9 hours....look at satellite

Its gone as far north as it went south, storms dont go straight.

[Ivanhater]

NHC 7AM points 24.4N 85.3W and at 24.4N and 86.8W. That's 0.0N and 1.3W over 9 hours. That's Due west.

ummm, please tell me your not saying it hasnt gone north in 9 hours....look at satellite

Its gone as far north as it went south, storms dont go straight.

2 steps north 1 step south still puts it 1 step further north....the "wobble" north is a big one compared to any south

[dwg71]

NHC 7AM points 24.4N 85.3W and at 24.4N and 86.8W. That's 0.0N and 1.3W over 9 hours. That's Due west.

ummm, please tell me your not saying it hasnt gone north in 9 hours....look at satellite

Its gone as far north as it went south, storms dont go straight.

2 steps north 1 step south still puts it 1 step further north....the "wobble" north is a big one compared to any south

Then how do you explain 0 gain in lattitude since this morning, at 7AM. It was 24.4 then and it was 24.4 at last update. I'm not a math major, but 0W is Due west.

[Ivanhater]

hey man, if you dont think it hasnt moved north since this morn, thats cool but its obvious it has

[Dean4Storms]

NHC 7AM points 24.4N 85.3W and at 24.4N and 86.8W. That's 0.0N and 1.3W over 9 hours. That's Due west.

ummm, please tell me your not saying it hasnt gone north in 9 hours....look at satellite

Its gone as far north as it went south, storms dont go straight.

Add the LAT/LON lines to the Sat. Link above and you'll see what we are talking about. It is not a wobble, a wobble does not last for 4+ hours with a storm of this magnitude. It is a trend and I hope that trend stops and does not continue to bend even moreso. Matter of fact, I pray you are correct and that I'm wrong. But I've been doing this for 35 yrs and know what I'm looking at. I would not have posted the topic until I ascertained that it was not a wobble to begin with.

[Nimbus]

Upper level winds have changed some since earlier.

[tallywx]

Dean, use the IR satellite loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

and you'll see that the setting sun casting a shadow to the N makes the eye appear to continue north of due west, when in fact Rita has shifted back to a due west track in the last 2-3 frames.