Hola, Senorita

[coolwater]

Might Rita end up a Mexican storm?

[dwg71]

brownsville is at 14% on nhc site, the same as galveston. so yes its possible, though not likely at this time. If rita heads due west or south of due west for 48 hours that would increase the chances.

[Roxy]

I certainly hope so.

[mtm4319]

brownsville is at 14% on nhc site, the same as galveston. so yes its possible, though not likely at this time. If rita heads due west or south of due west for 48 hours that would increase the chances.

I've noticed that most of the Texas coast has the same (or near the same) probability because the "angle" of the cone is roughly the same as the Texas coast.



Now if a storm were approaching the coast going NW or NNW (say, the direction Phillippe is going in), then you'd see a wide disparity among locations.

However, if you look at the new maps NHC is putting out which forecast the probability of hurricane-force winds, you'll see the disparity a bit better.



Brownsville is at around 10%, while Freeport is at around 20%. Lake Charles is at around 15%.

[djtil]

i would say extremely unlikely...i dont see xtrp winning this one.

[fci]

Might Rita end up a Mexican storm?

It would be nice if Rita picked out an unpopulated part of Mexico contrary to the NHC forecast.
Unfortunately, if you look at the NHC so far on this storm; they have nailed it exactly...from the start.

I can't remember a Hurricane Watch being issued with the birth of a Tropical Depression like this before; but they did it and it was right.

They forecasted from the start that the storm would cross the Straits between Cuba and Key West and had it exactly right.

So far, the NHC has performed masterfully in predicting this storm.