Houston is Not New Orleans

[BReb]

I'm sure I'll be shouted down but the "world is about to end" crowd, but here goes anyway:

http://www.wxresearch.com/houhur.htm

Within the Houston city limits, only a small portion of far southeast Houston could be expected to be affected by a storm surge from an intense hurricane. Therefore, most of Houston would not need to evacuate. If your property lies below the 25 elevation and has flooded before; if you live on the edge of bayous that are liable to overflow; or if you live in a mobile home, make plans to evacuate when a hurricane threatens the upper Texas Coast. Most of the damage in Houston will result from high winds, tornadoes and rainfall flooding. It would be reasonable for residents of Houston to expect winds, from a nominal hurricane, in excess of 75 mph, and the damage that would result from these type of winds.

- end quote -

I'm not saying Rita wouldn't be a horrific hurricane if it hit Houston, but I do say that New Orleans was UNIQUELY vulnerable. There is simply no potential for anything comparable to happen to Houston. None. 90% of deaths and the most catastrophic damage from hurricanes is caused by storm surge, and as noted above, storm surges simply will not effect the vast majority of Houston.

Yes, it could be a terrible economic hit for however long refineries along the Houston ship channel are flooded, but any flood event should be much shorter in Houston than in New Orleans because the water will drain out much more quickly. And there will be plenty of intact homes, etc in Houston for the refinery workers to stay at and get back on the job as soon as the refineries are cleaned up. You could see horrendous gas prices for a period of a few weeks, but Houston will be intact and the refineries will be back online much more quickly than in New Orleans.

[Derek Ortt]

60% of the deaths are caused by rainfall flooding and with the exception of Katrina, all of the very high death tolls (Georges, Mitch, Gordon, Jeanne), have been due to the rainfall

That said, there should not be an Allison type flood event in Houston from this and even in a direct hit, the hurricane will likely weaken by about 2 categories before hitting Houston after it hits the coast. Therefore, if the coast receives a cat 4, Houston would probably receive a cat 2 and the damae would be comparable to the WIND damage in New Orleans

[HurricaneGirl]

Yes, but alot of people from New Orleans have been living in Houston.

Wonder where those people are going now?

[Canelaw99]

Yes, but alot of people from New Orleans have been living in Houston.

Wonder where those people are going now?

If I were one of them I would probably be considering Alaska at this point.

[HurricaneGirl]

I hear ya! But doesn't Alaska have a lot of seismic activity?

[BReb]

"60% of the deaths are caused by rainfall flooding and with the exception of Katrina, all of the very high death tolls (Georges, Mitch, Gordon, Jeanne), have been due to the rainfall"

The article I linked said 90% of the deaths were caused by storm surge.

And it's misleading to talk about the flooding effects cause by Jeanne and Georges, which was the result of them hitting deforested Hispanolia. A tropical storm will kill thousands in Haiti. Mitch sat and span next to Honduras for days, which Rita won't do. Not sure about Gordon but I suspect a similar story there.

[Canelaw99]

LOL I guess....OK, Canada then?

[HouTXmetro]

1. No Houston is not New Orleans, but's lets just ignore over 1 million+ residents from Houston to Galveston who's homes could be underwater from the Storm Surge Alone.

2. Let's just ignore the significant wind Damage across the enitre Southern portion of the metro area.

3. Let's just the ignore the Many Bayou's around Houston which may overflow their banks into many different areas of Houston.

[Stratosphere747]

I'm sure I'll be shouted down but the "world is about to end" crowd, but here goes anyway:

http://www.wxresearch.com/houhur.htm

Within the Houston city limits, only a small portion of far southeast Houston could be expected to be affected by a storm surge from an intense hurricane. Therefore, most of Houston would not need to evacuate. If your property lies below the 25 elevation and has flooded before; if you live on the edge of bayous that are liable to overflow; or if you live in a mobile home, make plans to evacuate when a hurricane threatens the upper Texas Coast. Most of the damage in Houston will result from high winds, tornadoes and rainfall flooding. It would be reasonable for residents of Houston to expect winds, from a nominal hurricane, in excess of 75 mph, and the damage that would result from these type of winds.

- end quote -

I'm not saying Rita wouldn't be a horrific hurricane if it hit Houston, but I do say that New Orleans was UNIQUELY vulnerable. There is simply no potential for anything comparable to happen to Houston. None. 90% of deaths and the most catastrophic damage from hurricanes is caused by storm surge, and as noted above, storm surges simply will not effect the vast majority of Houston.

Yes, it could be a terrible economic hit for however long refineries along the Houston ship channel are flooded, but any flood event should be much shorter in Houston than in New Orleans because the water will drain out much more quickly. And there will be plenty of intact homes, etc in Houston for the refinery workers to stay at and get back on the job as soon as the refineries are cleaned up. You could see horrendous gas prices for a period of a few weeks, but Houston will be intact and the refineries will be back online much more quickly than in New Orleans.

It's not the fact about "I'm sure I'll be shouted down but the "world is about to end" crowd"

Your lack of true knowledge about what may happen is the problem..

Remember "us folk" in Brazoria and Matagorda counties are "insignificant"....

[AussieMark]

"60% of the deaths are caused by rainfall flooding and with the exception of Katrina, all of the very high death tolls (Georges, Mitch, Gordon, Jeanne), have been due to the rainfall"

The article I linked said 90% of the deaths were caused by storm surge.

And it's misleading to talk about the flooding effects cause by Jeanne and Georges, which was the result of them hitting deforested Hispanolia. A tropical storm will kill thousands in Haiti. Mitch sat and span next to Honduras for days, which Rita won't do. Not sure about Gordon but I suspect a similar story there.

what about Floyd in 1999

the vast majority of deaths came from inland flooding

as was the case with Allison in 2001

its been said for a while now that inland flooding has been a real killer with hurricanes

[BReb]

"Your lack of true knowledge about what may happen is the problem..

So why don't you post some actual FACTS rebutting what was contained in the article I posted?

"Remember "us folk" in Brazoria and Matagorda counties are "insignificant".

Listen, I took a quick look at Google map of Texas and didn't see any population areas on the coast between Galveston and Corpus Christi. But I humbly and meekly ask your forgiveness and those of the rest of Brazoria and Matagorda counties. Ok? Are you going to be crying about that statement in every post I make? Get over it.

[soonertwister]

There's a post on anothe thread that says 500 thousand could be flooded out of their homes in a category 4 hurricane in the Houston-Galveston corridor alone, significantly more than the number flooded in New Orleans.

No, the water wouldn't sit in the houses for the kind of extended periods that breaching of levees causes, but to even think of minimizing the possible effects of this storm at this particular moment is particularly unwise.

I'll go ahead and predict that if Rita hits at a cat-4 within 50 miles to the west of Galveston to directly into Galveston Bay, the effects will not cause the damage total of Katrina, but it could be much closer than some people might think. And a lot of people will lose their lives.

[gpickett00]

Why are you making a compairison between New Orleans and Houston? The severe flooding came from the lake in NO. Maybe compare it to Biloxi or Mobile bay.

[feederband]

I think by weekend's end we wont know the difference......

[HouTXmetro]

"Your lack of true knowledge about what may happen is the problem..

So why don't you post some actual FACTS rebutting what was contained in the article I posted?

"Remember "us folk" in Brazoria and Matagorda counties are "insignificant".

Listen, I took a quick look at Google map of Texas and didn't see any population areas on the coast between Galveston and Corpus Christi. But I humbly and meekly ask your forgiveness and those of the rest of Brazoria and Matagorda counties. Ok? Are you going to be crying about that statement in every post I make? Get over it.

Umm, As I previously stated

1. Almost a million residents homes would be subject to Storm Surge in the Eastern Portions of Houston down to the coast.

2. The many Houston Bayou's run the risk of filling up all across the area with nowhere for them to drain, Hence massive flooding will ocurr across much the Metro area.

3. Heavy wind damage across much of the Southern Portions of Houson and points Southward.

[BReb]

"1. Almost a million residents homes would be subject to Storm Surge in the Eastern Portions of Houston down to the coast."

You may be correct for all I know, but that's not what the article I posted says. Maybe the article's wrong.

Here's the storm surge map for a category 5, which no one thinks Rita will be:

http://www.houstontx.gov/oem/c5ss.jpg

[Stratosphere747]

"Your lack of true knowledge about what may happen is the problem..

So why don't you post some actual FACTS rebutting what was contained in the article I posted?

"Remember "us folk" in Brazoria and Matagorda counties are "insignificant".

Listen, I took a quick look at Google map of Texas and didn't see any population areas on the coast between Galveston and Corpus Christi. But I humbly and meekly ask your forgiveness and those of the rest of Brazoria and Matagorda counties. Ok? Are you going to be crying about that statement in every post I make? Get over it.

BReb...

I'll get over it, without crying as well...

In a few days if the forecast track verifies along with the intensity...You will not have to worry about me "crying" in every post that you make..

Your insensitivity on your initial post about the "insignificant" folk between Corpus and Galveston is what has me a bit pissed off..

I must admit that I am a bit on edge on what is about to happen, and with that I apologize if this is over the top, so to speak..

Scott

[MGC]

Far more people will be effected by Rita hitting Houston/Galveston than Katrina's hit on New Orleans/Mississippi/Alabama. More people live in the greater Houston area than the entire state of Mississippi. I've been to Houston several times. IMO there will be a significant surge issue if Rita hits in the right place at the right intensity. I would not be surprised to see surge values of near 25 feet in certain areas. There is the potential for a disaster here. I doubt damage will exceed Katrina's but could put Andrew's total a distant third.......MGC

[southerngale]

All of us in Texas are on edge, Scott. I'm praying for the best for you.
BReb...you need to lose the attitude.

[BReb]

"BReb...you need to lose the attitude."

Whatever attitude I'm showing is only in response to attitude/condescending posts to me first. I suppose we're all on edge and to the extent I'm to blame, sorry.