Pressure back up

[SamSagnella]

Latest recon report indicates 949mb min central pressure. This likely coincides with the eyewall replacement cycle currently observed. For those keeping tabs on Kat...while this is good news in the short term, once the central core completes its reorganization I expect the pressure to drop like a stone and we will see a Cat4 Katrina by as early as the 21z update. We haven't even seen the tip of Katrina's intensity iceberg...

[Air Force Met]

Latest recon report indicates 949mb min central pressure. This likely coincides with the eyewall replacement cycle currently observed. For those keeping tabs on Kat...while this is good news in the short term, once the central core structure completes its reorganization I expect the pressure to drop like a stone and we will see a Cat4 Katrina by as early as the 21z update. We haven't even seen the tip of Katrina's intensity iceberg...

Will probably take longer than the 21z update. IT takes a while to come out of an ERC...usually 18 hours or so. I would suspect by early tomorrow morning it will start the run at cat 4.

[Florida_TSR]

I agree.

[WindRunner]

Latest recon report indicates 949mb min central pressure. This likely coincides with the eyewall replacement cycle currently observed. For those keeping tabs on Kat...while this is good news in the short term, once the central core structure completes its reorganization I expect the pressure to drop like a stone and we will see a Cat4 Katrina by as early as the 21z update. We haven't even seen the tip of Katrina's intensity iceberg...

Will probably take longer than the 21z update. IT takes a while to come out of an ERC...usually 18 hours or so. I would suspect by early tomorrow morning it will start the run at cat 4.

Really? You think it'll take that long? I know you're a pro here, but I would have estimated the ERC began about the time the mid morning flight left, about 12Z, and it would start intensifying by the 11pm advisory. Any chance of something like that happening?

[Derecho]

Really? You think it'll take that long? I know you're a pro here, but I would have estimated the ERC began about the time the mid morning flight left, about 12Z, and it would start intensifying by the 11pm advisory. Any chance of something like that happening?

I covered this in my "mythology of EWRCs" post a few week back; for some reason people have a really weird idea of how long an eyewall replacement takes (which is a function of the fact that people keep proclaiming about 5 times more EWRCs than actually occur.)

They don't take a couple hours, they take the better part of a day to complete.

[WindRunner]

Sorry, I don't think I was around for that post, but I thought that 12Z -03Z (15 hours) was the better part of the day. What would your estimate be here?

[djtil]

she looks horrible on sat right now....inner core very disrupted and appears to be more of a dry air entrainment situation imo.......unfortunately still PLENTY of time to reform.

[cjrciadt]

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200409.asp
Look at Ivan went from 948 to 968mb. Then all the way down to its peak of 910 dont read into it too much the increase in pressure.

[Swimdude]

Yeah... Unlike most EWRC's... Katrina is actually maintaining her strength. That's kinda creepy.

[JamesFromMaine2]

everything that would normally weaking hurricanes Katrina seems to be staying or getting stronger!

[oneness]

The inner core wall has just decoupled from the rest of the rotation and been spun off-axis and absorbed into the rest of the outer core’s rotation in the latest SAT animations. It will be interesting to see if it ends up with a larger and more stable eye when re-stabilised and re-organised.

[Mac]

The inner core wall has just decoupled from the rest of the rotation and been spun off-axis and absorbed into the rest of the outer core’s rotation in the latest SAT animations. It will be interesting to see if it ends up with a larger and more stable eye when re-stabilised and re-organised.

It seems I've seen similar sat presentation with other hurricanes before they became annular. Anybody want to offer any predictions about whether Katrina will go annular or not?

As far as my thoughts--

It really looks like she is trying to set up a much larger eye. But she has struggled thus far to get a nice, clear eye. So I don't think she will just yet. But I do think she has the potential. Perhaps if she has time to go through one more ERC, then maybe.

[Hurricaneman]

The inner core wall has just decoupled from the rest of the rotation and been spun off-axis and absorbed into the rest of the outer core’s rotation in the latest SAT animations. It will be interesting to see if it ends up with a larger and more stable eye when re-stabilised and re-organised.

It seems I've seen similar sat presentation with other hurricanes before they became annular. Anybody want to offer any predictions about whether Katrina will go annular or not?

As far as my thoughts--

It really looks like she is trying to set up a much larger eye. But she has struggled thus far to get a nice, clear eye. So I don't think she will just yet. But I do think she has the potential. Perhaps if she has time to go through one more ERC, then maybe.

this might become an annualar cyclone after the ERC, but then again it might not

[Mac]

The inner core wall has just decoupled from the rest of the rotation and been spun off-axis and absorbed into the rest of the outer core’s rotation in the latest SAT animations. It will be interesting to see if it ends up with a larger and more stable eye when re-stabilised and re-organised.

It seems I've seen similar sat presentation with other hurricanes before they became annular. Anybody want to offer any predictions about whether Katrina will go annular or not?

As far as my thoughts--

It really looks like she is trying to set up a much larger eye. But she has struggled thus far to get a nice, clear eye. So I don't think she will just yet. But I do think she has the potential. Perhaps if she has time to go through one more ERC, then maybe.

this might become an annualar cyclone after the ERC, but then again it might not

You should consider a career in politics.

[Dmetal81]

Yeah... Unlike most EWRC's... Katrina is actually maintaining her strength. That's kinda creepy.

Agreed, the fact that her pressure only went up 8 millibars so far while looking that disrupted (EWRC wise, definitely not dry air entrainment) is an ominous sign. But, she has some time to go before its done, so maybe it will go up a bit more before dropping.

[WindRunner]

Larger eye has almost taken over (it'll be 45nm by recon) and there is a slight pressure drop again.

[oneness]

It's remarkable that the outflow remained so well established throughout this core event, and it’s lower and mid-level cloud mass’s extent has extended outward even further. It atrophied for a time before this core re-organisation, but it's back again and appears to have grown significantly larger in area, simultaneously.

[oneness]

It's remarkable that the outflow remained so well established throughout this core event, and it’s lower and mid-level cloud mass’s extent has extended outward even further. It atrophied for a time before this core re-organisation, but it's back again and appears to have grown significantly larger in area, simultaneously.

[superfly]

Yeah... Unlike most EWRC's... Katrina is actually maintaining her strength. That's kinda creepy.

That's likely because the winds never caught up to the pressure in the first place.

[oneness]

Compare the size of the storm to the size of SE LA. God help the people who don't evacuate to high ground in time.