Okay 940MB!!How long before we see the First ERC?

[rtd2]

Saturday Night?

[Mac]

I'm wondering if she has already gone through an ERC. The measured pressures with an open eyewall didn't mesh earlier. However, if she was going through an ERC at the time it might make a little more sense. It would be difficult, at this point, for us to observe her ERCs because her eye has been fairly well obscured. On current IR sat presentation, she looks like she has a small, ragged eye that may be about to become a much larger eye.

JMO.

[rtd2]

I'm wondering if she has already gone through an ERC. The measured pressures with an open eyewall didn't mesh earlier. However, if she was going through an ERC at the time it might make a little more sense. It would be difficult, at this point, for us to observe her ERCs because her eye has been fairly well obscured. On current IR sat presentation, she looks like she has a small, ragged eye that may be about to become a much larger eye.

JMO.

Good thought Although I would attribute ERC's with Cat 4's and Up I've seen them in strom cat 3's and I think thats what we have or will have in a couple hrs.

[Mac]

Based upon latest recon pressure readings, I'd say we already have a very strong cat 3. It's just so hard to see what's going on in her eye because it's so obscured.

[JamesFromMaine2]

we barely have a cat 3! its Max winds 115MPH!

[senorpepr]

Based upon latest recon pressure readings, I'd say we already have a very strong cat 3. It's just so hard to see what's going on in her eye because it's so obscured.

Although pressure readings from recon support a stronger system, recon winds only support a strong two. NHC subjectively upgraded based on satellite.

[Mac]

we barely have a cat 3! its Max winds 115MPH!

I disagree. The reason you only see winds of that speed are because the wind field has expanded. The winds have not yet caught up to the pressure. Pressure and Dvorak estimates place her at cat 4. So with minimal cat 3 sustained winds, but pressure and Dvorak showing cat 4, I think you could reasonably argue that we have a strong cat 3 on our hands right now.

[JamesFromMaine2]

we barely have a cat 3! its Max winds 115MPH!

I disagree. The reason you only see winds of that speed are because the wind field has expanded. The winds have not yet caught up to the pressure. Pressure and Dvorak estimates place her at cat 4. So with minimal cat 3 sustained winds, but pressure and Dvorak showing cat 4, I think you could reasonably argue that we have a strong cat 3 on our hands right now.

Yes once the winds get up to the pressure then yes we should be at cat 4 but right now the winds aren't up there and with out winds you don't have the storm! So well the pressure is low enough for a cat 4 the winds do not reflect that and so we do not have a cat 4 yet!

[senorpepr]

I disagree. The reason you only see winds of that speed are because the wind field has expanded. The winds have not yet caught up to the pressure. Pressure and Dvorak estimates place her at cat 4. So with minimal cat 3 sustained winds, but pressure and Dvorak showing cat 4, I think you could reasonably argue that we have a strong cat 3 on our hands right now.

Satellite can show what it want... realtime data only supports max cat 2/min cat 3. Therefore, it is such. Each system has it's own satellite representation. At this moment we have a cat 3. The winds haven't begun to catch up with the pressure drop.

[Mac]

we barely have a cat 3! its Max winds 115MPH!

I disagree. The reason you only see winds of that speed are because the wind field has expanded. The winds have not yet caught up to the pressure. Pressure and Dvorak estimates place her at cat 4. So with minimal cat 3 sustained winds, but pressure and Dvorak showing cat 4, I think you could reasonably argue that we have a strong cat 3 on our hands right now.

Yes once the winds get up to the pressure then yes we should be at cat 4 but right now the winds aren't up there and with out winds you don't have the storm! So well the pressure is low enough for a cat 4 the winds do not reflect that and so we do not have a cat 4 yet!

Read what I wrote again. I never suggested we had a cat 4. I said we had a strong cat 3.

[senorpepr]

Read what I wrote again. I never suggested we had a cat 4. I said we had a strong cat 3.

Even so... data only suggests barely category three. 110-115mph. Maximum. It will take a couple of hours before the winds increase.

[Mac]

Read what I wrote again. I never suggested we had a cat 4. I said we had a strong cat 3.

Even so... data only suggests barely category three. 110-115mph. Maximum. It will take a couple of hours before the winds increase.

Hey, if it makes you feel better to pick fly crap out of pepper, then have at it. It'll be a moot point soon enough. Katrina will be upgraded to a cat 4 sometime today and we won't have to debate whether she's a strong or weak cat 3 any more, will we.

[Hurricane Cheese]

Read what I wrote again. I never suggested we had a cat 4. I said we had a strong cat 3.

Even so... data only suggests barely category three. 110-115mph. Maximum. It will take a couple of hours before the winds increase.

Hey, if it makes you feel better to pick fly crap out of pepper, then have at it. It'll be a moot point soon enough. Katrina will be upgraded to a cat 4 sometime today and we won't have to debate whether she's a strong or weak cat 3 any more, will we.

The post of the morning so far.

Any bickering about how strong she is now will be swept under the rug when she's blowing at at least 135 mph by sundown....

[senorpepr]

Read what I wrote again. I never suggested we had a cat 4. I said we had a strong cat 3.

Even so... data only suggests barely category three. 110-115mph. Maximum. It will take a couple of hours before the winds increase.

Hey, if it makes you feel better to pick fly crap out of pepper, then have at it. It'll be a moot point soon enough. Katrina will be upgraded to a cat 4 sometime today and we won't have to debate whether she's a strong or weak cat 3 any more, will we.

No, it actually makes me feel better when we use fact instead of make-believe. However, yes... it will deepen quite fast once the winds begin to pick up with the pressures. If you need more proof, I invite you to the recon thread where I have yet to show any observation that supports anything greater than 110-115mph.

[Mac]

Read what I wrote again. I never suggested we had a cat 4. I said we had a strong cat 3.

Even so... data only suggests barely category three. 110-115mph. Maximum. It will take a couple of hours before the winds increase.

Hey, if it makes you feel better to pick fly crap out of pepper, then have at it. It'll be a moot point soon enough. Katrina will be upgraded to a cat 4 sometime today and we won't have to debate whether she's a strong or weak cat 3 any more, will we.

No, it actually makes me feel better when we use fact instead of make-believe. However, yes... it will deepen quite fast once the winds begin to pick up with the pressures. If you need more proof, I invite you to the recon thread where I have yet to show any observation that supports anything greater than 110-115mph.

While I respect the fact that you are a professional met, my claims are supported by the NHC discussion. So I'll have to side with the NHC on this one.

[Lowpressure]

True, but SENORPEPR is right, being accurate with real time data is critical. I also agree we will have a cat four shortly the pressure supports at least 135-140. The point here is if there were an island in the path right now, it would feel 115-not higher, yet. I feel this similar debate will happen when wew are discussing cat 4 or 5 intensity with this one.

[senorpepr]

While I respect the fact that you are a professional met, my claims are supported by the NHC discussion. So I'll have to side with the NHC on this one.

How are your claims supported by the NHC? They said 115... that is barely cat 3. The even said the recon didn't support cat 3, they subjectively upgraded based on satellite. Which is what I've been saying. You've been saying a strong cat 3. The NHC hasn't supported your claim whatsoever.

[senorpepr]

While I respect the fact that you are a professional met, my claims are supported by the NHC discussion. So I'll have to side with the NHC on this one.

How are your claims supported by the NHC? They said 115... that is barely cat 3. The even said the recon didn't support cat 3, they subjectively upgraded based on satellite. Which is what I've been saying. You've been saying a strong cat 3. The NHC hasn't supported your claim whatsoever.

Here's further data...

WHILE SUCH A LOW PRESSURE IS TYPICAL OF SOME CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANES... THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE NOT YET
EXCEEDED 104 KT WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 95 KT AT THE SURFACE.
GIVEN THE FALLING PRESSURE... AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 100 TO 115 KT... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE
INCREASED TO 100 KT... MAKING KATRINA A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.
THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT
KATRINA HAS GROWN IN SIZE... WHICH PERHAPS EXPLAINS WHY THE MAXIMUM
WINDS HAVE NOT YET CAUGHT UP TO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE.

Let me break this down for ya... flight winds support 110mph or cat 2. However, because of the falling pressure and satellite estimates, they have subjectively upgraded to 115mph or cat 3... although they have no bone fide proof of 115 mph winds. Regardless, the reason the winds have not caught up to the pressure is because of the expanding wind field. Once again, the NHC says that it's barely a cat 3, only subjectively. I'm not disagreeing that it will quickly pick up once the field stops expanding.

[Mac]

The point I was making--apparently unsuccessfully--was that the reason the pressure supports cat 4 but the winds are minimal cat 3 is because the wind field has expanded. Therefore, she will be a strong cat 3 as soon as that balances out (and, IMO, she probably already has caught up enough to be a strong Cat 3 now).

[senorpepr]

The point I was making--apparently unsuccessfully--was that the reason the pressure supports cat 4 but the winds are minimal cat 3 is because the wind field has expanded. Therefore, she will be a strong cat 3 as soon as that balances out (and, IMO, she probably already has caught up enough to be a strong Cat 3 now).

Okay... most of that statement I can buy. It's only that last sentense, which is your own opinion, so let your freak-flag fly.

We'll see what recon says in a few minutes, they are going through the NE quad as we speak.