Hurricane Katrina....getting stronger and more dangerous!!

[WXBUFFJIM]

Hurricane Katrina is moving moving west away from the lower Florida Keys and has strengthened rather rapidly during the day today. Katrina currently has maximum sustained winds of 100 mph with higher gusts and is moving towards the west southwest at 8 mph. Hurricane Katrina as of 5 PM EDT was centered near latitude 24.8 north, longitude 82.9 west or about 70 miles west northwest of Key West, Florida.


A sustained wind of 81 mph with a gust to 105 mph was reported at Dry Tortugas C-MAN Station situated in the southern eyewall. The following below are peak wind gusts and sustained wind reports from various stations in southern Florida.


Dry Tortugas C-MAN Station: sustained wind of 81 mph with a peak gust of 105 mph.

Key West Intl: 74 mph gust
NOAA Ship-Key West Harbor: 86 mph gust
Marco Island-Collier County: 77 mph gust
C-Man Station 6 miles ssw of Marathon: 76 mph gust

Wind gusts as of 2 PM Friday August 25th exceeded 40 mph as far east and northeast as Marathon on the Middle Florida Keys. The Airport in Marathon suffered damage to hangers and numerous aircraft were damaged by a morning tornado that roared through.

Key Biscayne: 95 mph gust
Port Everglades: 92 mph gust
Virginia Key: Sustained at 73 mph with a gust to 87 mph
NHC Office: 87 mph gust
Fort Lauderdale: 82 mph gust
Pompano Beach: 62 mph gust
Miami: 86 mph gust
Pembroke Pines: 64 mph gust
Boca Raton: 64 mph tstm gust


Also rainfall was a huge problem and this is the fourth wettest day ever in Key West, Florida with over 9 inches of rain TODAY alone in Key West. Below are rainfall totals so far with Katarina.

Key West: 9.15"
Miami: 4.28 inches
Homestead AFB: 13.40 inches
Marathon: 8.32 inches
Perrine: 18-20 inches (doppler estimates also show 18-20 inches)

What about the future of Katarina?? A ridge of high pressure continues to dominate to the north of the Hurricane for the time being. Thus a west track is expected for the next 12-24 hours followed by a more northwesterly track, then a northerly track as the ridge retrogrades to the west, breaks down, and is replaced by a upper trough moving in from the northwest. This should force Katrina northward later Saturday night into Sunday. This should be followed by landfall between New Orleans and Pensacola by Monday evening or Monday night. The area of most concern is the Mississippi and Louisiana coastline where they are more proned to devastating storm surge. Very strong winds are likely during landfall and Katrina is expected to be a major hurricane. Maximum sustained winds could exceed 130 mph at landfall with higher gusts. Preparations are essential at this time long before the center of Katrina approaches the northern gulf coast. Follow advice from local emergency management officials.

Jim

[WXBUFFJIM]

Taking a look at Katrina tonight reveals a tighter inner core circulation with a smaller more compact eye. These tighter more compact circulations tend to strengthen more dangerously and that's what Katrina maybe doing here late tonight. A hurricane hunter aircraft is headed into Katrina. Judging by satellite, Katrina will be a major hurricane by 2 am Saturday if this strengthening trend on satellite continues.

Katrina is moving wsw at 8 mph and maximum sustained winds around the tightly wound up eyewall are 105 mph with higher gusts. A track towards the west and eventually the west northwest is expected to occur on Saturday. A ridge to the north of Katrina is showing signs of retrograding westward which will result in a weakness in the flow over the central Gulf of Mexico. There is a band of clouds extending from northwest to southeast across the central gulf. Just south and west of this cloud feature, steering flow is coming in from the south. This combined with an upper trough approaching from the northwest will cause Katrina to track northwesterly later Saturday and then track towards the north by Sunday before making landfall on the eastern Louisiana or Mississippi coastline later Monday evening.

As for intensity, conditions favor additional intensification between now and landfall later in the day on Monday. Sea surface temps of 90 degrees combined with very light winds aloft means all systems are go for strengthening between now and later Monday. The forecast is for a 135 mph category 4 hurricane at landfall on Monday evening. The FSU Ensembles show Katrina reaching wind speeds of 131 knots, which is quite possible. This is expected to be a very dangerous hurricane for the northern gulf coast. Prepare immediately for major hurricane type conditions and evacuate when told to do so. The Louisiana and Mississippi coastline is very proned to storm surge flooding, which is a huge huge concern.

Will continue to monitor this system throughout the weekend. Expect a major hurricane by early Saturday, possibly by 2 am if this strengthening trend continues.

Jim

[WXBUFFJIM]

Recon data at 0953z shows pressure has fallen rapidly and is now down to 940 mb.
Vortex Data Message
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT12 KNHC 270953
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/09:32:40Z
B. 24 deg 22 min N
084 deg 22 min W
C. 700 mb 2591 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 045 deg 090 kt
G. 316 deg 010 nm
H. 940 mb
I. 17 C/ 3045 m
J. 19 C/ 3049 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 1212A KATRINA OB 23
MAX FL WIND 104 KT NE QUAD 07:08:10 Z
SMALL HAIL SE EYEWALL.

[cajungal]

Hi, Jim. It is me. It is 6:27 AM and I can't sleep. Usually I don't get up until at least 10:30 a.m. I am NOT a morning person. But, my anxiety level is high. I woke this morning and expected to track right back to the east. But, almost every model is right on top of me! They are getting more confident about the track now.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Yea it's not the prettiest of moves and for a city that is this huge, it takes 72 hours to completely evacuate New Orleans. This storm has definitely done some surprises and given the environment that it's in, it could do more surprises yet. Just hope everyone gets out of the way of this hurricane, especially with the surge. The exact numbers on wind, surge, and such likely won't come into play until later Sunday. But needless to say a cat 4 with 140 mph winds at landfall seems very likely.

Definitely hang in there CG and let me know how things progress down there.

Be safe.

Jim

[Brent]

I've been up since 6:30am and I'm not a morning person either...

*grabs more caffeine*

[WXBUFFJIM]

I didn't sleep much at all last night. The theme maybe for lack of sleep for awhile here as Katrina continues to show her every move. The early visible pictures coming in are very impressive as well with Katrina much stronger looking than it was this time yesterday.

Jim