Say it ain't so Joe

[Jevo]

In a rare move it looks as if Bastardi may be in agreement with the NHC on this one.

From his 8:26am Discussion

Today's Discussion
Today's Discussion Posted: August 24, 2005 8:26 a.m.


Tropical Depression 12 has been upgraded to Tropical storm Katrina.
As of 8 a.m. Wednesday, it was centered at 24.4 north and 76.6 west, or about 70 miles southeast of Nassau, Bahamas and some 250 miles east-southeast of the southeastern Florida coast. Maximum sustained winds are about 40 mph with gusts to around 45 mph. Currently, movement of the system is to the northwest at 8 mph, and the minimum central pressure is 1006 mb, or 29.71 inches.

As the system slowly moves northwestward over the next 24 hours, it will move through an environment favorable for strengthening, and so further strengthening seem likely.

While crossing the Bahamas, Katrina will cause strong winds, excessive rainfall and a storm surge of up to 5 feet as well as battering waves along the coasts. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas.

Once the storm moves past the Bahamas, it appears to be headed for South Florida. A tropical storm watch is already in effect for portions of the east coast of Florida and the Florida Keys from west of the Seven Mile Bridge, northward to Vero Beach, and a hurricane watch may be required later today for parts of the east coast of Florida. The outer effects of the system could be felt in South Florida as early as tonight, then the worst of the storm will spread inland Thursday. The main threat to Florida will be flooding rains and the potential for tornado-producing thunderstorms, but if the storm intensifies rapidly between now and Thursday, then there will be the potential for damaging winds as well. The worst case scenario is for a hurricane to strike the coast of South Florida on Thursday.

After striking South Florida, the storm is expected to emerge into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and will slowly push northwestward. The most likely track is for this storm to make a second landfall over the central or eastern Gulf Coast on Sunday or Sunday night. During its time over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the storm may strengthen into a hurricane, if it has not already become one.

At this point, residents of the Bahamas and South Florida who are in the path of this storm should immediately begin preparations for this storm's arrival. Those who live farther north in Florida should monitor this storm carefully, and those with interests along the Gulf Coast, east of Galveston and along the southeastern Atlantic coast should monitor this storms path carefully.