Could td 12 do what Erin did in '95?
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otowntiger
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Could td 12 do what Erin did in '95?
It just occured to me in looking at the model plots that this system could follow a path very similar to Hurricane Erin in '95. She was the first TC that I experienced after moving to Orlando back in '89. I remember Orlando getting some pretty gusty TS winds and having the day off work. Power knocked out for several days for some people. It was just enough to make me realize that if a much stronger storm hit this general area that we could get hammered. Of course Charley, Frances and Jeanne did just that last year. I don't expect this thing to get as strong as C, F or J, but Erin reached 85 mph before coming in around Vero Beach heading wnw. I know there are many possible scenarios, but that one crossed my mind. She also popped out on the other side of the peninsula and whacked Pensacola pretty good as a solid cat 1, stronger than when she hit the EC of FL.
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WeatherEmperor
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otowntiger
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WeatherEmperor wrote:It could do something similar to Erin except a bit further south according to the data we are seeing now. However it is something to note that the majority of the computer models took Erin into south florida but it obviousy took a jog to the north.
<RICKY>
I remember that. She started out as a SFL threat and then took that jog up our way. She was supposed to strengthen more than she did. I remember on of the local stations hired the former NHC director Bob Sheets to do analysis for them and he said that after it was clear that she wasn't going to strengthen above her 85mph winds that we had Grand Bahama Island to thank for that. She passed right over that island and at that point began to suck in a little dry air. This could be a parallel path, just to the south.
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Dr. Jonah Rainwater
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WeatherEmperor
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Re: Could td 12 do what Erin did in '95?
otowntiger wrote:It just occured to me in looking at the model plots that this system could follow a path very similar to Hurricane Erin in '95. She was the first TC that I experienced after moving to Orlando back in '89. I remember Orlando getting some pretty gusty TS winds and having the day off work. Power knocked out for several days for some people. It was just enough to make me realize that if a much stronger storm hit this general area that we could get hammered. Of course Charley, Frances and Jeanne did just that last year. I don't expect this thing to get as strong as C, F or J, but Erin reached 85 mph before coming in around Vero Beach heading wnw. I know there are many possible scenarios, but that one crossed my mind. She also popped out on the other side of the peninsula and whacked Pensacola pretty good as a solid cat 1, stronger than when she hit the EC of FL.
Thanks for reminding me of Erin of 95. My first experience with a Hurricane. Almost no damage however, just mostly wind little rain. However It was expect to go through Miami, but moved NNW, then turing West thru Central Florida. 
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otowntiger
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