Hi Res GOM Water Temps

[jasons2k]

I sure hope Ex-10 doesn't get to feed on this

[ROCK]

Man,and I thought gas prices were high.....

[Jim Cantore]

I was fishing in Cedar Key last tuesday and I felt the water with my finger it was like my bath tub

Dry air knocked down Arlene and Dennis

I'd hate to think what would happen if something ran into those water temps without sheer or dry air to weaken it

[jax]

looks like they used too much crab boil...
someone throw some lemons and potatoes
in there!

[cajungal]

And off the Louisiana coast has some of the highest temps. Grand Isle, LA has a water temp of 91 degrees!

[rockyman]

I think we here on Dauphin Island have you beat...The special of the day was crawfish etouffe and the water temperature at 5pm (when I was on the beach) was 93.4 degrees!!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=dpia1

It really did feel like jumping into a hot bath!

[Stratosphere747]

And off the Louisiana coast has some of the highest temps. Grand Isle, LA has a water temp of 91 degrees!

Pfff....Freeport was at 91.8 a few days back, must of been a bit of a cooling trend as it was only 90.5 earlier.

I can do without anytype of system near either one of us though cajungal..

[wxmann_91]

And how deep is this hot water? If it is only 50 ft deep then you won't need to worry about a major hurricane making landfall.

[jasons2k]

Right now, quite deep enuf unfortunately

[FlSteel]

There was alot of talk earlier this year about how major canes approaching the north gulf coast seem to loose alot of intensity just prior to making landfall. I wonder if this is due to the SST's being rather shallow in the gulf. I always thought that the gulf itself was a rather shallow body of water as compared to the Atlantic itself so this line of thinking does not make sense to me. I would think that the gulf waters would run warmer deeper than the open Atlantic. If any mets have any info to clear this up it would be welcome.

[skysummit]

Maybe so....if you look at this map, you can see the water is a lot deeper a lot closer to the extreme SE La. tip than it is south of Panama City to Appalachicola area...and even shallow south of Pensacola/Destin for a storm coming from the the SE.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/92/GulfofMexico3D.png

[wxmann_91]

There was alot of talk earlier this year about how major canes approaching the north gulf coast seem to loose alot of intensity just prior to making landfall. I wonder if this is due to the SST's being rather shallow in the gulf. I always thought that the gulf itself was a rather shallow body of water as compared to the Atlantic itself so this line of thinking does not make sense to me. I would think that the gulf waters would run warmer deeper than the open Atlantic. If any mets have any info to clear this up it would be welcome.

Water being shallower near the coast is a big issue, but it is not the biggest.

When midlatitude troughs and dry air combine together, it does not bode well for storms, and that is what causes them to suddenly weaken.
Actually in Dennis I believe it wasn't a midlatitude trough but an ULL to the west that induced shear and caused dry air to entrain into the southern side of Dennis. Otherwise it would've been the next Camille.

[FlSteel]

Thanks Wxmann. Doing my best to understand these systems and more so the surrounding enviroments that effect them. For how powerful they can become, they seem at times to be pretty fragile and very reliant on the enviroment they are in.

[Huckster]

Here's something I posted a long while back on this subject. Anyway, perhaps Frederic might be added as a landfalling cat. 4 hurricane in the NE Gulf. We'll see. If so, I stand corrected. Hopefully someone well versed in this subject will offer more and better insight.

I think I understand fairly well the idea that hurricanes, especially strong ones, need a relatively deep layer of warm water to maintain themselves, and just like it has been mentioned in a posts earlier, it does no good just to have a thin layer of 90 degree water if the waters just below that are chilly. Also, I know there seems to sometimes be a controversy over north Gulf hurricanes weakening before they make landfall. Definitely, in recent years, there's been a trend for major hurricanes to weaken in the northeastern Gulf (possibly, probably) due to the lack of heat content in the water. Here's something else I've noticed that supports this idea. According to the reanalysis work so far completed, of the four landfalling Cat. 4 hurricanes in the Gulf from 1851-1910, two struck Texas (1886, 1900) and two struck Louisiana (1856, 1893). Also, during the same period, most of the landfalling strong cat. 3 hurricanes in the Gulf (let's say 105 to 110 kts) struck Texas (1880) or Louisiana (1855, 1860, 1879, 1886, 1909). Mississippi was hit by two of these storms after they crossed Louisiana (1855, 1860) and they were weakening. Only one such hurricane (105 kts or greater) directly hit the area from Alabama to roughly Cedar Key, and that hurricane (1896) was being swept up by a strong coldfront and moving NNE at 32 mph at landfall.

I know right now the re-analysis work is being reviewed for the rest of the 1910's and 1920's, but I imagine most of the changes will probably not be revolutionary; there will be no cat. 4's discovered in the NE Gulf at landfall, and I know at least one hurricane (Oct. 1916) is being at landfall reduced from its current Cat. 3 designation. My guess is that we'll see the following for major hurricanes in the north Gulf (roughly southern Texas to Tampa/Cedar Key area is how I am defining it) when this work is done...

1915 Cat. 4, TX
1915, Cat. 3, LA
1916, Cat. 3, MS
1916, Cat. 3, TX
1917, Cat. 3, FL
1918, Cat. 3, LA
1919, Cat. 4, TX
1921, Cat. 3 FL
1926, Cat. 3, LA
1928, Cat. 3, FL/AL

If that's correct, that yields seven of those ten major hurricanes as Texas to Mississippi storms. Both Cat. 4's hit Texas. I don't know of any hurricane in the northeastern Gulf from 1930 to the present that stands any chance at being revised up to a Cat. 4 at landfall, while Carla and Audrey were Cat. 4's for sure, and possibly Betsy as well. Camille was not really a northeastern Gulf hurricane either, as far as I am concerned, but more of a north central Gulf storm. I would say that the general principle is that the area of the eastern half of the north central Gulf (let's say Alabama and the western Panhandle) to Tampa or northeastern Gulf is far less likely to see landfalling cat. 4's and 5's than is the area from Brownsville to Pascagoula. From 1851-present, at least nine Cat. 4's or 5's (1856, 1886, 1893, 1900, 1915, 1919, 1957, 1961, 1969) struck the northwest Gulf area while NONE struck the northeast Gulf. These are numbers, and weighty numbers at that, not feeling or opinion. This is, of course, contingent upon the Re-analysis yielding the results that I expect for those northwest Gulf storms, but there still will not be found, as far as I can tell, any storms in the northeast Gulf that will dispute this idea. Even if one or two such storms are discovered, the reasoning still stands. Again, I am not trying to say that it is always impossible for such a storm in the northeastern Gulf to make landfall, just that it definitely seems less likely.

My guess is that this is related to TCHP and also to the weather patterns prevalent in the northeast Gulf when large hurricanes are passing through that area, which often include shear and dry air, since many of the major hurricanes in that area occur in latter September and October. Here's one thing maybe you can help me on. When I look at TCHP maps, I see it drop off to zero along practically every spot along the Gulf, including the areas of Texas and Louisiana where many Cat. 3's and even strong Cat. 4's have made landfall. How did these storms maintain their intensity and in some cases intensify right up to landfall? It seems like the TCHP drops off to zero right where the ocean gets shallower. Is it possible that near TX and LA, this is the reason why the TCHP seems to drop, but since the water is shallow, the very warm waters go all the way to the bottom, eliminating the problem of upwelling colder waters that may happen near the FL Panhandle? Just a guess. I do not know much about that, so anyone who can offer some input on that in a cordial, constructive, friendly way, please feel encouraged to do so!

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... ht=#976068

[dhweather]

Right now, quite deep enuf unfortunately

VERY MUCH SO

<img src="http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005232god26.png">

[WindRunner]

Where do the 26 isotherm maps come from, I can't seem to find them?

[dhweather]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/

[NorthGaWeather]

And how deep is this hot water? If it is only 50 ft deep then you won't need to worry about a major hurricane making landfall.

If its moving at 5 mph perhaps. The water is fairly warm and deep in the CNTRL GOM.