Check out the latsest CMC model

[tailgater]

I can't seem to be able to post link can someone help me out I'm sure it's gonna raise some eyebrows.

[webke]

Here is the link you requested.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[tailgater]

Thanks WEBKE, looks like most of the models are hinting at some sort of development near the FLA. straits

[webke]

I saw that on most of the models, intensity varies but they are in agreement that something will be occuring in that area time will tell.

[wayoutfront]

[x-y-no]

European has had the same idea for a few runs now ...

(0z run at 7 days, SLP and 500mb heights)

[weatherwoman]

one of the models shows something developing off the carolinas also whats going on here

[WeatherEmperor]

one of the models shows something developing off the carolinas also whats going on here

I dont know. I dont see anything off the Carolinas right now.

<RICKY>

[Frank2]

A low is mentioned in the local Ruskin (Tampa) extended forecasts to form over South Florida by Wednesday or Thursday.

Incidentially, according to the GFDL, the subtropical high is forecast to retreat all the way to the Azores, with a large general weakness west of 50W - the map has the appearance of a late Fall weather pattern.

Frank

P.S. In fact, looking at the weakness of the subtropical ridge, I'm convinced more than ever that Bill Gray will lower his numbers in his next forecast. Since we now have less than 10 days before September 1, it seems that the Atlantic is set in a long-term pattern, with the ridge consistently (for over one month) being northeast of it's usual position.

[weatherwoman]

check the mm5fsu it shows something developing there

[weatherwoman]

off the carolinas in 5 days

[WeatherEmperor]

mm5FSU is just.....terrible. Just ask any pro-met around here and you will get a very similar answer. Trust me, I learned that from them.

<RICKY>

[weatherwoman]

thanks for the info

[ericinmia]

mm5FSU is just.....terrible. Just ask any pro-met around here and you will get a very similar answer. Trust me, I learned that from them.

<RICKY>

They have changed the way it handles the formation of storms... thus the loss of our main source of humor. No more runs with 5 phantom cat5's.

I am no expert on that model, but it is much more trustworthy since the algorithm changes.
-Eric

[curtinnc]

Maybe the models are cutting off the tail end of the frontal boundary that's currently off the coast of NC/SC? This was the front that most models did a poor job predicting over the last few days... Now with new data, maybe they are picking up a cutoff low, but I dunno...

[Javlin]

Got me laughin before that first cup of java Tailgater thank you.Alao Franf2 why would Gray change his numbers.He's not forcasting landfalls but storms and days of storms.The MJO is backing off and it is possible to have two more name systems before the end of the month I think.

[Marilyn]

off the carolinas in 5 days

Weatherwomen where is this model ? Where can i go see it
Thks, marilyn

[artist]

Marilyn- it is the one posted above by wayoutfront -

[Frank2]

Re: casper's post

Yes, you are correct (though I wish the public would understand that when it was mentioned that we'd have a "record" season - many do not know that this only refers to statistics), though I still believe he will lower his totals just a bit - the Atlantic environment is just not very supportive of anything at this time.

Even the very strong African wave of Saturday is still struggling - this type of system would usually be a depression by this time.

As for the indicators - many have mentioned upcoming changes over the past 6 weeks, but, in the end not much has changed (as of today).

Frank

[gatorcane]

Frank2, exactly I totally agree.