Question

[GulfBreezer]

Now that we are all past saying that this system has no chance , what are going to be the factors that will steer this TD and what are the chances of it becoming "fish food"? Considering we all had serious doubts about this scenario even happening, now we need to look ahead and redeem ourselves! What is next folks?

[vbhoutex]

Most of that will come out in the updates. However, what is ahead for TD#2 is a very hostile environment off to it's WNW and NW. Shear to it's west is in the 30-50kt range and should make this one a short lived(less than 5 days total)system whatever it does. And I do think it will become TS Bill today. Probably will exist as a minimal TS(in the 40-50mph range)for 36-72 hours and then start diminishing. I really need to look at everything since I haven't done that since early am to give a more definitive answer.

And yes this one fooled everyone I know. I don't think I know any forecaster that thought this would happen, at least not that has said that in a post or told me privately.

[Steve H.]

I wouldn't say the TD doesn't have a chance, and I believe we may see Bill at 11am. Latest vis loops show a consolidated area of turning and a good band of convection feeding in from the eastern side. ridge is trying to pump to the north and he's low latitude. Not saying he'll survive the journey yet as there is uncertainty in the conditions ahead, but I think he has an even cahnce of making it into the Caribbean (NE). Cheers!!

[Rainband]

I think this one fooled us all :o But no matter how much we know..mother nature continues to re-define that education once and a while!!