Will TD2 be Tropical Storm Bill Today????

[Guest]

Post your thoughts and what advisory if or when TD2 becomes TS Bill??

Wow - woke up this morning and this system is still holding its own. Who would of thought. I guess never say never and climotology has gone out the window. Not saying this is a prelude to the season to come - but 2003 will be a year of firsts.....

Post your thoughts and comments.....

[BreinLa]

This is a first for me, we had a TD last night and I missed it lol guess I need to get with the program. Yep we'll have Bill today, a while back we had a post about when we thought Bill would form wonder who guessed right I'll have to go look for the post.

[OtherHD]

Bre, me missed you in chat last night! We had 23 people show up at one time.

[wx247]

Looks okay to me and may still become Bill, but with each passing update from the NHC the odds become less and less.

[GulfBreezer]

With the odds of this system even getting this far, I wouldn't even venture to put out a guess as to what it will do now! There surely weren't many people who would have even thought about this system becoming Bill and now it sure looks like a strong probabilty! Whew, this season is going to be full of a few sleepless nights! I have coffee brewing and a case of No-Doze on the way! Yes, Johnathan, you take yours black!!
Welp, sit back, relax and protect your computer! We are all going to be REAL close for a while!!

[JCT777]

My guess is: We will have Bill by 5 PM EDT today.

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Well yes... This tropical system has gone over all probabilities forming so far east at this time of the season when tropical storms usually form in the Gulf, western Caribbean and rarely (only 2) in the east very close to the islands. Convection decreased in the past few hours, maybe it is beguining to interact with some westerly flow ahead of it. On the other hand, tropical depresions are usualy this way, because of being a weak system, they lose convection and then regain it again and I won't be surprised if TD#2 regain convection later today. Anyway, I think that TD#2 still has to fight the shear of 50'sW and looking at it right now if it don't become more convective today then it may keep it's TD#2 status for a while. However!! As I said in the title of my post...This system has organized against all probabilities (climatological, historical, statistical etc.) The fact that it formed in that area is already historical and interesting , that's why I won't venture to say anything more about this system for now. Thisone could make a fool of me!! Although at this moment I don't think so, this could become Bill later today or tomorow, after that... I'm not really sure...The only thing I know is that we in PR will get wet next monday, with either a Storm, a TD or a strong tropical wave.

...And yes Tika...!! This depresion forming so far east so early may be an example of things to come, conditions overthere are unusually favorables for development and I don't want to think how will be August and September.


Cycloman

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg

[Rainband]

I think this year will be full of more surprises...This TD may have one or more in store..due to the fact no-one even saw it getting this far!!!

[Stormsfury]

I will have to say no ...

Dry air is entraining into the system, shear is impinging on the system, and it looks quite ragged, ... in fact, in another thread, (See Derecho's Thread about QS), it may have never had a closed low in the first place ...

But anyways, the window of opportunity is closing ... for real this time ...

It's been a historical ride ... and possibly a sign of things to come this year.

[Guest]

Or it could just be a quirk happening this TD.

Since it may never become Bill - onward to my quest to find BILL - LOL.

[mf_dolphin]

The NHC held it as a TD at the 11 advisory. I have to agree that it's looking real ragged now but we'll have to wait and see. The forecast track has been shifted a little south of the prior advisory as well.

[wx247]

Will keeping it a little further south increase its chances of survival?

[Stormsfury]

Or it could just be a quirk happening this TD.

Since it may never become Bill - onward to my quest to find BILL - LOL.

You may not have to wait long ... look at the CMC (Canadian Model) thread ...

[Stormsfury]

The NHC held it as a TD at the 11 advisory. I have to agree that it's looking real ragged now but we'll have to wait and see. The forecast track has been shifted a little south of the prior advisory as well.

The reason it's been shifted further south is because the degree of how amount the upper-level environment can affect the movement ... if it's a shallow circulation (which is may not even have one now, based on latest QuikScat data) then it'll be steered by the low-level winds ... but if the circulation was more established and deeper then it would likely be pulled more NW ...

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Yes... maybe... If the system stay south and keep moving westward it will keep on warm water and less shear environment (The SST'S northwest of it are colder and there's also strong shear arround the 50'sW). If TD#2 keep moving west and arround 10 north it may encounter better conditions and either keep its TD status or even reach the tropical storm category, becoming TS Bill. If the depression moves WNW or NW then the cold SST'S and the shear will disipate it.

We have to wait and see

Cycloman

[wx247]

Yes... maybe... If the system stay south and keep moving westward it will keep on warm water and less shear environment (The SST'S northwest of it are colder and there's also strong shear arround the 50'sW). If TD#2 keep moving west and arround 10 north it may encounter better conditions and either keep its TD status or even reach the tropical storm category, becoming TS Bill. If the depression moves WNW or NW then the cold SST'S and the shear will disipate it.

We have to wait and see

Cycloman

Interesting... thanks for the swift response.