TD#10 Advisories=Last Advisorie

[cycloneye]

First advisorie at 5 PM EDT.

[x-y-no]

Here we go ...

NEXT!

Kind of looks like the motion has a bit more northerly component this afternoon, but it may be that I'm being fooled by expansion of the outflow and convection.

[Swimdude]

WOO! Every time I don't check here for 12 hours, a depression forms. YEEEAAH!

[hurricanefreak1988]

We're now in double digits. Nearing the halfway point in the quest to make history.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT AUG 13 2005

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE ATLANTIC...EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.9 WEST OR
ABOUT 1100 MILES...1765 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
ON SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...14.3 N... 44.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$




801
WTNT25 KNHC 132019
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102005
2100Z SAT AUG 13 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 44.9W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 44.9W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 44.6W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.0N 46.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.5N 47.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.5N 48.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.5N 49.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.5N 52.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 22.5N 55.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 24.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 44.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

802
WTNT45 KNHC 132019
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ATLANTIC...EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND BASED
ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB THE SYSTEM HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS.

CURRENTLY...THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH SOME
CURVED BANDS AND OUTFLOW EXPANDING WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THIS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY NOT LAST FOR LONG. UNANIMOULSY...ALL
GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A RATHER STRONG AND UNUSUALLY DEEP
UPPER-TROUGH BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE DEPRESSION. THIS
TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEPRESSION
TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY. SHIPS MODEL FORECAST A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION...AND THE GFDL THAT FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS MADE THIS
DISTURBANCE A STRONG HURRICANE...NO LONGER STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE.
DUE TO THE UPPER-TROUGH...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONLY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING AFTER 3 DAYS...WHEN THE UPPER-TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA. ALL THIS IS VALID IF THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

THE DEPRESSION IS IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE SO THE INITIAL MOTION IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. BEST ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OF 315
DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION SUGGESTS THAT THE
STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS
PATTERN WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS WITH A POSSIBILITY OF A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
THERAFTER...AS A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...GFDL AND THE ECMWF MODELS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE NOAA BUOY 41041. THE
DATA FROM THE BUOY WILL GIVE US A BETTER STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE
OR IF EXISTS AT ALL.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/2100Z 14.3N 44.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 15.0N 46.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 16.5N 47.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 17.5N 48.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 18.5N 49.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 20.5N 52.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 17/1800Z 22.5N 55.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 18/1800Z 24.0N 59.5W 50 KT

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

Is the NHC in a hurry? They did the advisories really early. THAT'S GOOD!

[storms in NC]

that would put TD#10 on the same path as Irene in 120 hours

[Swimdude]

Is the NHC in a hurry? They did the advisories really early. THAT'S GOOD!

I'm not complaining!

Woah... VERY interesting track... Northerly, and then a curve to the West... Wasn't this a previous Irene forecast?

[gkrangers]

that would put TD#10 on the same path as Irene in 120 hours

*sigh*

[Brent]

Is the NHC in a hurry? They did the advisories really early. THAT'S GOOD!

I'm not complaining!

Woah... VERY interesting track... Northerly, and then a curve to the West... Wasn't this a previous Irene forecast?

It did peak my interest...

[x-y-no]

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE NOAA BUOY 41041. THE
DATA FROM THE BUOY WILL GIVE US A BETTER STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE
OR IF EXISTS AT ALL.

Here is the data page for bouy 41041:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

Currently:

Code: Select all

Wind Direction (WDIR):            E ( 100 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD):                21.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST):                  29.1 kts
Pressure Tendency (PTDY):        -1.0 mb ( Falling )
Water Temperature (WTMP):        28.1 °C


This bouy is located at 14.53 N 46.00 W

[Scorpion]

Threatening track for the CONUS. Likely will change vastly though.

[deltadog03]

getting close to the bouy

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102005
0300Z SUN AUG 14 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 45.5W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 45.5W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 45.3W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.8N 46.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.9N 47.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.5N 48.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.6N 50.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.3N 53.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 23.2N 57.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 25.0N 61.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 45.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

FORECASTER STEWART

[Brent]

Track is farther south and west...



That looks disturbing for the East Coast.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SAT AUG 13 2005

...TENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE
45.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1090 MILES...1755 KM... EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...
15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY OCCUR DUE TO THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION BEING POORLY DEFINED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...15.0 N... 45.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

[sma10]

Track is farther south and west...



That looks disturbing for the East Coast.

Brent it's really difficult to tell if this forecast is south and west than previous.

The 5pm had a five day position of 24N 59.5 and this one is 25N 61.5W

[seaswing]

Do you think it could be a TS sometime tomorrow?