BAM & GFS??

[Blown Away]

Are these models stopping the storm and then pushing it back south?? Confusing!
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[deltadog03]

looks that way to me...lol...a sign the ridge will be there...wooohooo

[jdray]

They are having trouble estimating the effects of the ridge that is in place.

[gatorcane]

[JTD]

Irene has decided to be mischievious But I wouldn't worry too much. GFS is having trouble intializing this storm.

[gatorcane]

but latest Quickstat shows not real center and east winds on the SW side of the supposed center....this tells me we really have an open wave still and maybe the GFS is going to be right afterall ....

[deltadog03]

could be right...imo..we have been tracking the MCL lately...

[DESTRUCTION5]

but latest Quickstat shows not real center and east winds on the SW side of the supposed center....this tells me we really have an open wave still and maybe the GFS is going to be right afterall ....

Said she looked Wavy earlier....Ugly storm

[superfly]

This is not an open wave, unless it's the most powerful open wave in history...besides open wave Emily.

[gatorcane]

I think its a TD-wave.....who knows what this thing is anymore

[djtil]

unless it's the most powerful open wave in history

more powerful open waves sweep across the US every fall/winter.

[superfly]

unless it's the most powerful open wave in history

more powerful open waves sweep across the US every fall/winter.

I was obviously using a hyperbole and I was obviously talking about maritime "open waves" as well.

[x-y-no]

Are these models stopping the storm and then pushing it back south?? Confusing!
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

The GFS is dissipating the storm and moving the remnants WSW under the ridge. The BAMs run off of the GFS grid, so that could cause them to follow suit.

But I think we can be confident that Irene isn't going to dissipate, so we can pretty much toss out these options.

[elysium]

The ridge is very weak. Irene will in all probability only skirt the mid-atlantic east coast at a distance. I know the GFS and few other models have a purported ridge setting up, but that's not going to happen. In fact, it is doubtful whether the weak ridge will be able to pull out the weak trough sitting off the east coast. Southwest track; where the models come up with this stuff is beyond me. Irene will never amount to more than a minimal hurricane at the most, and will unlikely more than skirt.

There is a new wave emerging off the coast of Africa that has promise, but there is also a problem related to high pressure with this system as well. If the new wave coming off Africa doesn't pick up forward speed, it will be approaching 70W at a latitude that will require proper ridging. We should have such on days 10 and 11 but after that we lose alot of the strong ridging. There won't be any troughs to contend with, just a subtropical ridge that's positioned further east too often. If the system can get to 70W in 10 or 11 days, it will be able to make the trek across. There is another system in the mid-atlantic that doesn't look too robust this hour, but that could change. Development isn't as certain with this one, but it is a southerly tracker and if it develops, it should enter into the Caribbean.

Irene just didn't have the ridging she needed. Had she gotten proper ridging, Irene would have likely become a very intense compact storm.

[BamaMan]

She's a Bi-polarcaine

[gatorcane]

She's a Bi-polarcaine

lol

[Swimdude]

This is going to be chaotic to track because of that stupid ridge...

[img]ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/users/graphics/AL0905_5W_0295.GIF[/img]

[wxman57]

About the only reason to ever use the BAMS/BAMM/BAMD models would be in very low latitudes where a system is moving to the west beneath the Bermuda high. That's why the NHC runs them as test models for tropical waves - just to get a basic idea of a possible track. The BAMs employ no physics, they're not "dynamic". You certainly would want to be very careful about using the BAM north of, say, 20N latitude. So I'd advise you not to eagerly await these models every 6 hours for Irene, they're just about worthless in the subtropics. Instead, look at the dynamic global models.

[gkrangers]

About the only reason to ever use the BAMS/BAMM/BAMD models would be in very low latitudes where a system is moving to the west beneath the Bermuda high. That's why the NHC runs them as test models for tropical waves - just to get a basic idea of a possible track. The BAMs employ no physics, they're not "dynamic". You certainly would want to be very careful about using the BAM north of, say, 20N latitude. So I'd advise you not to eagerly await these models every 6 hours for Irene, they're just about worthless in the subtropics. Instead, look at the dynamic global models.

People will follow whichever model brings the storm closest to their backyard.

[mahicks]

About the only reason to ever use the BAMS/BAMM/BAMD models would be in very low latitudes where a system is moving to the west beneath the Bermuda high. That's why the NHC runs them as test models for tropical waves - just to get a basic idea of a possible track. The BAMs employ no physics, they're not "dynamic". You certainly would want to be very careful about using the BAM north of, say, 20N latitude. So I'd advise you not to eagerly await these models every 6 hours for Irene, they're just about worthless in the subtropics. Instead, look at the dynamic global models.

People will follow whichever model brings the storm closest to their backyard.

GK...You are soooo right!

WxMan...I knew that the BAMX system was not really good beyond 20 already...What I want to know is why? You say they have no physics and not dynamic, therefore static? Can you plz explain what you mean? I'm not being a smarta$$, I only ask as a newbie and don't understand what you mean...Thanks