Unoffical irene forecast 4

[du1st]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products. I say I rene is going to turn WNW around this time tommorrow and keep that motion and then hit brunswick Georgia with 110mph winds. No bashing please.

[jax]

are you in the Brunswick area?
(fair questions)

[du1st]

Nope.

[jax]

cool... adds validity...
where are you located... if i might ask?

[du1st]

in the SE

[du1st]

The georgia coast never gets hit.

[Timedrifter]

The georgia coast never gets hit.

Hurricane David did make landfall on Tybee Island in 1979. I was just 7, but I happened to be in Savannah at the time for a wedding and I remember it well as my first hurricane experience.

[jax]

The georgia coast never gets hit.

why this one then?

[WindRunner]

I'm sure it's because never means once every 30 years, because every never never means never. And if you're going to call for that much of a strengthening, than make it 115mph so we can claim another major in the books.

[Stratusxpeye]

Yeah i was just thinking that yesterday about the georgia coast never being hit. It don't mean never ever ever in history just extremely rare. From Jacksonville up to savana i dont remember in my short life tim eof a major ever hiting there or anything for that matter im noly 22 and only about 12 years of memory on storms so i dont go that far back. But I was thinking yesterday this think looks like a possible Georgia/sc border or a lil south of that hit depending on the next few days and strength of irene . What are everyones thoughs regarding florida wiht irene? Anyone think Fls in the possibilities? Will irene make a hook due west in the next few days?

[gatorcane]

I think the E. coast of FL should be getting worried about this one....latest GFS model runs are keeping a strong mid latitude ridge above Irene which would push it into the E coast of FL AND if the GFS is doing this that is pretty amazing since it has historically underestimated the western atlantic ridge.

[NastyCat4]

This is an independent project, and in no way reflects anything official--for reliable information, please consult the experts at the NHC:


Extremely unlikey for a Georgia impact--Irene would do either of two things---keep a 270 heading, and impact South Florida (unlikely, as it will probably turn WNW, and NW as it gets stronger), or recurve, and either hit the Carolinas, or the Virginia-DelMarva area. Out to sea is still an option, with an earlier recurvature. North Florida/Georgia landfalls are in the 1-2% probability, whereas a recurve in to the Hatteras area would probably be a 20% event, and a South Florida straight West tracker would be 15-20%, based on historic storm tracks.

[Stephanie]

Dr. Steve Lyons & Jim Cantore were discussing the other night how it may be a benefit for Irene to strengthen because she would then tend to follow the prevailing upper level flow (north and away) versus staying weak and following the prevailing lower level flow (west). However, the longer it takes for her to strengthen (which she looks like she is doing now), the more for a potential impact on the US.

I didn't realize how close she actually is now to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. If she was to strengthen and being following those upper level flows, I'd think that someone on the East Coast maybe feeling the affects of her!

Comments?

[Anonymous]

Dr. Steve Lyons & Jim Cantore were discussing the other night how it may be a benefit for Irene to strengthen because she would then tend to follow the prevailing upper level flow (north and away) versus staying weak and following the prevailing lower level flow (west). However, the longer it takes for her to strengthen (which she looks like she is doing now), the more for a potential impact on the US.

I didn't realize how close she actually is now to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. If she was to strengthen and being following those upper level flows, I'd think that someone on the East Coast maybe feeling the affects of her!

Comments?

Yea...the chance of a landfall is significant. IMO

[tallbunch]

being on the GA/SC border, I have learned in the years that the storms that come our way always take a turn North before hitting us. Example Hugo. It could be knocking at my door and they always seem to turn North. We have been asked to leave so many times, the problem is no one leaves anymore. They always go North.

[Anonymous]

being on the GA/SC border, I have learned in the years that the storms that come our way always take a turn North before hitting us. Example Hugo. It could be knocking at my door and they always seem to turn North. We have been asked to leave so many times, the problem is no one leaves anymore. They always go North.

In 1893, two Category 3 "MAJOR" hurricanes impacted Georgia:::




In 1898...a Category 4 stuck Georgia...look almost like a potental Irene track???

[WeatherEmperor]

nice research floydbuster. it has been well over 100 years since one of those major hurricanes made a direct impact on Georgia which is why some of them might feel none ever go there anymore.

<RICKY>

[tallbunch]

Those were the last majors...over 100 years ago. A lot of people died and the island was about underwater. There is a "ghost" in the lighthouse people say. She was flashing for her husband on top of the lighthouse when the hurricane hit. People say she still flashes the light sometimes at night.

[WeatherEmperor]

Those were the last majors...over 100 years ago. A lot of people died and the island was about underwater. There is a "ghost" in the lighthouse people say. She was flashing for her husband on top of the lighthouse when the hurricane hit. People say she still flashes the light sometimes at night.

thats it. now you ruined my sleeping habits again. Now where did I put my night light?

<RICKY>