Tropical Low faces big problems ...

[Stormsfury]

Look at the huge dry ULL just NW (23ºN, and 42ºW roughly) of the Tropical Low and on loops doesn't appear to be giving ground ...

Water Vapor Loop

[Anonymous]

You're exactly right. There is no way a strong low can survive such a strong upper level trough. The shear is that strong and the low is already too far north. Even if the low did stay south of the shear, it would hit South America. No landmasses have to worry about this one...keep an eye on it though just in case.

[Anonymous]

Completely agree. This morning shows that, although central convection has increased, the outflow on the south and east quadrants has been cut off. To me, it doesn't look any better than it did at this time yesterday. The only way I'd see the NHC classifying this today is if they go by SAB and visible imagery. However, in any case, time is running out, as this low is approaching strong shear driven by that upper level low to the north. If it were to become a TD, its duration would be short due to the undefeatable harsh environment ahead. If it doesn't get classified later today, it won't at all. It's now or never. I'm leaning towards the latter.

[Steve H.]

Ah come on guys, you're being a bunch of killjoys!! We're having a bit of fun cheering this on!! Your putting a dagger in this before it gets started Let's go disturbance - Bring on Bill! j/k

[Steve]

Don't be so sure. This isn't a TUTT type low that stretches deep into the Caribbean or beyond that would necessarily shear the tropical low apart. This is one of those types of ULL's that can enhance outflow in the long run. I agree that early on, the southerly and eventually westerly flow the surface low will encounter won't help it, but there's no guarantee it's not going to bypass the ULL to the south. To me, chances are better that a wave emerges SW of the ULL than the energy being completely absorbed. If you look at the ECWMF, you can follow along the bump on the SW side of the Atlantic Ridge all the way through Sunday (see near Cuba/Hispanola). Look at the 1018 pressure line days #5 and #6 vs. #3 and #4.

http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/ecmwf_500p_4panel.html

Following the EU's logic, there's a 'blip' or 'blob' near South Florida early next week. It's not much, but it shows at least an impulse or shadow-of-its-former-self piece of energy getting in.

You can almost 'kind of' see a blip on the MRF day 8

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/9panel/mr ... panel.html

And if you look at the 500mb MRF for Days 8 & 9, you can kind of make out an interruption in the windfields down there.

In any event, there's no "BIG THING" showing up on any of the medium range models, but there's a hint that something could be happening. In June, those hints are about all you've got to go by.

Steve

[Steve]

Here are some other things to consider:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

As of the 16:15 UTC visible frame, the system looks better to me than it did yesterday. Looks like the center might be around 40/10 with a secondary center of circulation rotating in south of the blowup of convection around 36.5-37.

So again, no big deal. But on visible, you definitely get the hint that it's doing okay for now.

Steve

[Steve]

Here are some other things to consider:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

As of the 16:15 UTC visible frame, the system looks better to me than it did yesterday. Looks like the center might be around 40/10 with a secondary center of circulation rotating in south of the blowup of convection around 36.5-37.

So again, no big deal. But on visible, you definitely get the hint that it's doing okay for now.

Steve

[Steve H.]

Agree Steve, the ULL doesn't appear to be impacting our disturbance significantly. The disturbance actually looks better than it did this time yesterdday. Cheers!!

[Steve]

>>Agree Steve, the ULL doesn't appear to be impacting our disturbance significantly. The disturbance actually looks better than it did this time yesterdday. Cheers!!

Absolutely Steve H. But to be fair, any negative impact would likely be over the next 24-60 hours.

One of my quirks with tropics on the web is that people (not necessarily applicable to anyone on this thread) are so quick sometimes to want to be the first to jump on something that they miss the evolution of what's going on in front of them. Whatever's out there, it's cool to watch. No computer and no forecaster knows with any certainty approaching 50% what's gonna happen in 5-8 days. So if anyone says "it's done for", they're just as full of it as anyone who says we've got a major problem on our hands 6 or 7 days from now. None of us knows.

Steve

[PTrackerLA]

If this low becomes a TD would it be the earliest Cape Verde storm to form on record?

[Anonymous]

It isn't jsut the trough either....notice the easterly shear. I just updated the discussion.

[Anonymous]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion 3:00 PM EDT, Tuesday June 10, 2003

The tropical low moving westward over the central Atlantic remains the only area of interest. Westerly vertical wind shear doesn't appear to be inhibiting development all that much just yet. In fact, easterly shear is the only inhibitor at the moment. The easterly shear is evident on visible satellite imagery, with most of the convection pushing well to the west of of the center of circulation. The shear appears to be a bit stronger than it was 24 hours ago. The low will meet its demise when it begins to interact with a large uppr trough farther west. Sea surface temperatures will be cooler, shear will be stronger and there will also be less instability. The low should fall apart within 24-36 hours. Some of the models show the remnants of the low passing over the Lesser Antilles in 4-5 days. Development from this system later on is unlikely but we will keep an eye on it

The remainder of the Atlantic basin is quiet. There are a few thunderstorms moving into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. The thunderstorm complex is being caused by a shortwave trough pushing through southern Texas. Dissipation is likely once they move over open waters for a few hours. The central Caribbean remains active with showers and thunderstorms pasing over the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. A good chance of daytime storms is expected at least over the next five days. A few other tropical waves are passing through the Atlantic but all of them are weak and are showing no signs of organization.

[Derecho]

It's just had a substantial burst of deep convection, and its trajectory has become more westerly rather than northwesterly.

Given the current track, and examining a really detailed SST map like

http://128.160.23.54/products/K10/moweryk10.gif

It actually seems that in quite a bit of sleight of hand it will magically dodge extremely cold SSTs.

The infamous upper low is really fairly far away as these things go; currently; it's actually helpfully providing an outflow channel.

Not much indication the system radically turns to the north any time soon. Models also propagate the upper high westwards along with it (though models are routinely too optimistic about moving upper lows or weakening them.)

Anyway, my opinion of the chances of this making TD are actually higher than they were 24 hours ago.

[Anonymous]

If this low becomes a TD would it be the earliest Cape Verde storm to form on record?

On record, yes. The earliest Cape Verde tropical storm to form was TS Ana in 1979, on June 19. There were also two other recorded Cape Verde TDs in June (one of those being TD#2 in 2000), but none were as early as June 10.

[Anonymous]

Looks like I busted this time...the low is organizing rapidly.

[Anonymous]

No TD at 5 but they will classify it tonight at this rate.

[Steve]

Looks like I busted this time...the low is organizing rapidly.

Don't sweat it TWW. Before the season is up, I predict we'll all bust it 10-15 times. The handwriting on the wall for this blob is to just watch it over the next week. Super Early Morning Line would give a gut threat to DR/Haiti on Sunday and maybe Cuba-Keys by Tuesday or Wed. Needless to say, if it intensifies, there is a far greater liklihood of a fish spinner. But then again, we don't see CV storms in June, so the rules and future probabilities are being written before our eyes.

Steve

[cycloneye]

TWW nobody is perfect so dont worrie.

[Stormsfury]

Looks like I busted this time...the low is organizing rapidly.

Don't sweat it TWW, I posted before that if it was going to organize, it had to do so rapidly, and look what happened ...

So I also busted as well ... 2003 being the year of the broken records and the first continues ...

[vbhoutex]

So far we all have busted on this one from what I see!!! It fooled the heck out of me!!! I saw absolutely no way it could organize into even what it is now!