The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE
NJN WEATHER CENTER
655 PM TUES AUG 9TH 2005
Irene is still a weak and wimpy TD but is showing signs of strengthening back to a tropical storm and perhaps more. Her influences from remnant lows or low pressures appear to be subsiding as she continues a now west track across the open Atlantic.
One thing that does suddenly have me concerned is that the NHC's forecast through 5 days has her moving WNW till around 27-30 North before possibly moving back due west. This would then send her in the direction of the SE Coast from Florida to possibly the Carolina's.
Certain things have to hold up. Irene has to strengthen 1st, She also has to have the Bermuda High stay strong. If the high weakens or erodes. It may send Irene further poleward towards the end of the period.
Irene now reorganizing could very well grow. But the question is.. How much..? Will she be a TS..? It is still way too early to say if she'd make it all the way to hurricane status.
Irene is probably still somewhere between 7-9 days from a SE Coast threat.. but It'd be a good idea for those to watch her as she inches ever so closer. Especially if the 5 day tracks hold up with her going due west.
My official track has her moving W or WNW till the latter end of the weekend. Then possibly moving due west by Sunday. This would then cause those on the SE coast to get a higher alert on the system. Especially if she strengthens.
Here's my 5 day forecast on Irene:
Tonight: Trying to reorganize. May regain TS status. Max Winds: 40 mph
Wednesday: Moving W.. staying well north of the Islands. Max Winds: 45 mph
Thursday: Well to the north of PR. Max winds: 55 mph
Friday: Still WNW but possibly showing signs of going back West. Max Winds: 60 mph
Saturday: Watching carefully in the SE. Still 4-5 days out. Max Winds: 65 mph
Track and intensity forecasts are subject to errors some by as many as 100's of miles.
Irene Forecast #5: This is suddenly getting interesting
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Irene is probably still somewhere between 7-9 days from a SE Coast threat.. but It'd be a good idea for those to watch her as she inches ever so closer. Especially if the 5 day tracks hold up with her going due west
the 5 day plot does not have her going due west but more WNW and by then she will be a stronger more stacked system and a turn poleward would be more likely than a turn to the due west.This is not out of the question ala hugo and andrew but my bet on any POSSIBLE landfall would be Sourthern SC to Maybe Maryland.Then theres the possibility that this could turn north right off the east coast and move north into the NE but everything is doubtful at this point
the 5 day plot does not have her going due west but more WNW and by then she will be a stronger more stacked system and a turn poleward would be more likely than a turn to the due west.This is not out of the question ala hugo and andrew but my bet on any POSSIBLE landfall would be Sourthern SC to Maybe Maryland.Then theres the possibility that this could turn north right off the east coast and move north into the NE but everything is doubtful at this point
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Josephine96
ncdowneast wrote:Irene is probably still somewhere between 7-9 days from a SE Coast threat.. but It'd be a good idea for those to watch her as she inches ever so closer. Especially if the 5 day tracks hold up with her going due west
the 5 day plot does not have her going due west but more WNW and by then she will be a stronger more stacked system and a turn poleward would be more likely than a turn to the due west.This is not out of the question ala hugo and andrew but my bet on any POSSIBLE landfall would be Sourthern SC to Maybe Maryland.Then theres the possibility that this could turn north right off the east coast and move north into the NE but everything is doubtful at this point
Powerful storms don't always go poleward. Andrew moved due west, or ever so slightly south of west at times while strenthening under a big high pressure sytem as it trecked toward Florida.
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