Anyone see TSR's forecast?

[hurricanetrack]

If it was one here and I missed it, sorry. But this is pretty incredible- TSR, or tropical storm risk, out of the UK, predicts what looks like 22 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 6 or 7 intense. Something like that anyway.

They also say it will be a record breaking year "At sea". Hmm....wonder what that means?

Read it here and toss in your thoughts:

http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/docs/TSRATLFo ... ug2005.pdf

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I will stick with my 15 named storms, I forecasted back in March. In say it could be upwards of 17.

[Ixolib]

Very interesting, with presumably lots of research to back their opinion.

Two questions - (1) What is the definition of "tercile" and (2) can anyone provide their learned opinion in relation to the quote below and where agreement exists?

The key factors behind the TSR forecast for an exceptionally above-average hurricane season in 2005 are the anticipated strong enhancing effect of July-September forecast trade winds at 925mb height over the Caribbean Sea and tropical North Atlantic region (7.5N - 17.5N, 30W - 100W)

[Steve]

Someone had asked about this in the last couple of weeks. If I remember correctly, the UK Met Office in conjunction with TSR was supposed to release results in early August from intensive data and modeling that was to be a future seasonal predictor model or something like that and is supposed to greatly improve hurricane seasonal information.

I'm assuming this is it (or something like what I tried to explain above).

Steve

[clfenwi]

Very interesting, with presumably lots of research to back their opinion.

Two questions - (1) What is the definition of "tercile" and (2) can anyone provide their learned opinion in relation to the quote below and where agreement exists?

The key factors behind the TSR forecast for an exceptionally above-average hurricane season in 2005 are the anticipated strong enhancing effect of July-September forecast trade winds at 925mb height over the Caribbean Sea and tropical North Atlantic region (7.5N - 17.5N, 30W - 100W)

Answer for (1) - Tercile is like quartile, except that it is a third instead of a quarter... so they are saying that it is certain that 2005 will rank in the top third of seasons in terms of activity

As for (2), I'm not qualified to comment. Except, I will point out that your quote puzzled me because it said factors and there was only one listed. Here is the other factor

August- September forecast sea surface temperature for the Atlantic MDR(10°N - 20°N, 20°W - 60°W).

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I will believe will see 22 named storms. When I see it with my eyes. That seems hard to believe. We would have to hold on to the activety into early to mid November to do it.

[Scorpion]

I will stick with my 15 named storms, I forecasted back in March. In say it could be upwards of 17.

15? So you predict we will see 6 more named storms this entire season, with it being August 7? Give me some of what you are smoking

[Ixolib]

Very interesting, with presumably lots of research to back their opinion.

Two questions - (1) What is the definition of "tercile" and (2) can anyone provide their learned opinion in relation to the quote below and where agreement exists?

The key factors behind the TSR forecast for an exceptionally above-average hurricane season in 2005 are the anticipated strong enhancing effect of July-September forecast trade winds at 925mb height over the Caribbean Sea and tropical North Atlantic region (7.5N - 17.5N, 30W - 100W)

Answer for (1) - Tercile is like quartile, except that it is a third instead of a quarter... so they are saying that it is certain that 2005 will rank in the top third of seasons in terms of activity

Excellent!! THANKS...

[P.K.]

If it was one here and I missed it, sorry. But this is pretty incredible- TSR, or tropical storm risk, out of the UK, predicts what looks like 22 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 6 or 7 intense.

Sorry, I put it in the Dr Gray thread as to prevent creating a new thread. This is rather a large increase on last month, but it was to be expected given how this season is going.

If I remember correctly, the UK Met Office in conjunction with TSR was supposed to release results in early August from intensive data and modeling that was to be a future seasonal predictor model or something like that and is supposed to greatly improve hurricane seasonal information.

I'm assuming this is it (or something like what I tried to explain above).

Steve

I'm not sure about that given I read about how they were doing it in the 21/4/05 edition of the journal Nature.