Are you guys hurricane happy?

[du1st]

Just because last year was bad doesn't mean every single year after 04 is going to be like 04. Did Andrew hit miami 12 years in a row. This year will be like 1995.

[gatorcane]

agreed. Lot's of storms and lots of fish. The SAL and upper level lows are dominating the Atlantic this year. No major Bermuda High either...it won't be anything like last year

[storm4u]

on average florida gets hit every other year! But some people seem to think every storm that forms will hit florida now because of last year! But the fact is they wont!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Attention everyone:

just be careful

This may be a year very different from 2004. But I would not let my guard down, here's why:

Not yet. This year has been unique with the crazy July monsters Dennis and Emily. What will happen in September is uncertain, but right now 2 waves (one near S. America) as well as another to its east has developed better convection. Time will tell.
Higher SSTs may faciliate stronger B-Highs a few weeks down the road.

[WeatherEmperor]

Just because last year was bad doesn't mean every single year after 04 is going to be like 04. Did Andrew hit miami 12 years in a row. This year will be like 1995.

what evidence do you have to back that statement up? Nobody is in the clear until this hurricane season is over with.

<RICKY>

[Astro_man92]

I haven't been tracking for long enough so i'm not hurricane happy yet

[du1st]

Lots of storms doesn't mean a bad season. the likely hood of a season like last year. it's a lot like 95? what more proff do you need?

[EDR1222]

Just because last year was bad doesn't mean every single year after 04 is going to be like 04. Did Andrew hit miami 12 years in a row. This year will be like 1995.

what evidence do you have to back that statement up? Nobody is in the clear until this hurricane season is over with.

<RICKY>

I agree. Although 2004 was pretty intense, it is only August 7. At this time last year, there wasn't much going on, but then look what happened after Charley came ashore.

[WeatherEmperor]

Just because last year was bad doesn't mean every single year after 04 is going to be like 04. Did Andrew hit miami 12 years in a row. This year will be like 1995.

what evidence do you have to back that statement up? Nobody is in the clear until this hurricane season is over with.

<RICKY>

I agree. Although 2004 was pretty intense, it is only August 7. At this time last year, there wasn't much going on, but then look what happened after Charley came ashore.

Exactly. Nobody can predict what is gonna happen during any given hurricane season no matter what climatology or history says. Cause if they could, they would be millionaires right now signing autographs for their book.

<RICKY>

[Anonymous]

Usually, in the active periods, a monster comes each year::::

1945:::

Two Category 4 Landfalls in USA, One in Texas, the other in SE Florida:::


1946:::

A Category 4 hurricane scrapes up the West coast of Florida:::


1947:::

A Category 5 hurricane weakens slightly before landfall on the Eastern Florida coast as a strong Category 4 hurricane:::


1948:::

Two Major Category 3/4 hurricanes impact the Keys and South Florida:::


1949:::

Two Category 4 hurricanes strike the USA, one in Florida and one in Texas:::

[WeatherEmperor]

wow that was some nice homework floydbuster. is it just me or did the majority of those strike Florida....

<RICKY>

[Anonymous]

wow that was some nice homework floydbuster. is it just me or did the majority of those strike Florida....

<RICKY>

Yep...I am willing to estimate that most of those hurricanes would be atleast 5-10 billion each today. The ones like the 1947 storm....may take Andrew to #2. It's bound to happen again.

[WeatherEmperor]

My gosh I sure am happy that I was not alive in the 1940's in FL. When I check out the hurricane archives it almost seems as if FL got hit every year. Not every single year but the strike frequency was pretty darn high for it then.

<RICKY>

[wxcrazytwo]

Lots of storms doesn't mean a bad season. the likely hood of a season like last year. it's a lot like 95? what more proff do you need?

that tells me zilch. Juast because last week was long and tedious doesn't mean this week will be the same..

[du1st]

You are probably right. No one will know what this year is like intill November 30th.

[mikey mike]

That 1947 hurricane impacted the MS Gulf Coast in a very bad way.In fact that was the storm that all the old-timers were measuring Camille to, and the reason why many of them stayed in their homes and tragically some lost their lives.Their thinking was that they survived the ’47 storm and they could survive Camille.

[Ixolib]

That 1947 hurricane impacted the MS Gulf Coast in a very bad way.In fact that was the storm that all the old-timers were measuring Camille to, and the reason why many of them stayed in their homes and tragically some lost their lives.Their thinking was that they survived the ’47 storm and they could survive Camille.

Yep - My grandparents told the story of the '47 storm time and again of their experience here in Biloxi. As I recall, they said it was a VERY LONG storm, and looking at the track, it appears it hugged the coast just offshore from here. But you're right, Mike. Many coastians used '47 as the benchmark. For those who survived Camille, '69 became the "new" benchmark!!

[Stephanie]

well maybe a weak ridge should be your answer. If it is a gulf storm watch out though.

I'm not too crazy about your antagonistic comments. Noone here is hurricane "crazy", but we are EXTREMELY interested in hurricanes. That's why we're on this board to begin with.

Part of the fun and excitement is watching how the season starts, making comparisons to the climatology in similar years and estimating how many and how strong alot of these will be. Last year's season is definately different from this year but we haven't even hit the "peak" time of it yet.

You might want to try and rephrase your questions and comments in the future.

[Steve]

>>Exactly. Nobody can predict what is gonna happen during any given hurricane season no matter what climatology or history says. Cause if they could, they would be millionaires right now signing autographs for their book

I disagree. The trials are being run right now. It's only a matter of time before we have a fairly good handle on what a season is going to bring (including a surprise or two of course).

Steve

[Swimdude]

Of COURSE we're hurricane happy!