The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 ADVISORY 4
8:00 AM PDT AUG 5 2005 (11:00 AM EDT OR 15 Z AUG 5 2005)
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FOR OFFICIAL FORECASTS...PLEASE REFER TO THE NHC. THIS IS AN INDEPENDENT PRODUCT.
PLEASE REMEMBER...HURRICANES CAN BE VERY UNPREDICTABLE AND CAN MAKE SUDDEN CHANGES AND/OR SHIFTS IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.
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THE NEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A NAKED CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN MOVED NORTHWARD. MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE NOW TRENDED WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO I HAVE CONSIDERABLY BACKED OFF ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS THE NHC. THE CURRENT POSITION PUTS TD 9 IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONGER SAHARAN AIR...INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND LOWER SST'S. IF THIS SYSTEM SURVIVES THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH I THINK IT WILL...THEN THERE IS A POSSIBLITY OF IT BECOMING A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THAN INDICATED HERE...PERHAPS A HURRICANE...AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE AREA.
SINCE THE INITIAL POSITION HAS MOVED FORWARD...THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD...BUT SHOULD THE SYSTEM WEAKEN MORE THAN FORECAST...THEN THE TRACK WOULD HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD AGAIN. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A WNW DIRECTION...UNTIL THE RIDGE REBUILDS AND THE SYSTEM CAN MOVE SOMEWHAT MORE WESTWARD.
FORECASTER TANG
HOUR POSITION INTENSITY
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INITIAL 16.4N 37.3W 25 KT
12 HR 16.8N 38.7W 25 KT
24 HR 17.4N 40.1W 30 KT
36 HR 18.1N 41.7W 35 KT
48 HR 18.7N 43.6W 40 KT
72 HR 19.7N 47.2W 45 KT
96 HR 20.8N 51.6W 50 KT
120 HR 21.5N 56.7W 60 KT
And the track:
Comments and suggestions welcomed as always!
Next advisory around 5:30 PM EDT.