GFS new model run has lost TD 9

[JTD]

Latest GFS run seems to have lost TD 9. Looks like not much development at all from this system can be expected.

It does depict TD 9 just not as a low anymore.

[jkt21787]

Looks like not much development at all from this system can be expected.

You're not taking the GFS seriously, are you? And thats just a summary of what it says.

[JTD]

It's actually fairly good and other models lose this system too.

[jkt21787]

It's actually fairly good and other models lose this system too.

SO you think Irene will not develop.

I can't believe this is already starting...

I guess people forget how everybody was writing off Emily early on and we know how it ended up...

[Stratosphere747]

Unless this has been classified as a named storm...Then please change the name of your topic...

[WXFIEND]

aand what models will THAT be?

this is a Grade A case... remember, its METEOROLOGY, not MODELology....

you have to know when to cut the line between the weather and what the models say

[JTD]

Unless this has been classified as a named storm...Then please change the name of your topic...

Sometimes mistakes are made, especially at this time of night.

[jkt21787]

aand what models will THAT be?

this is a Grade A case... remember, its METEOROLOGY, not MODELology....

you have to know when to cut the line between the weather and what the models say

Very nicely said.

It really ticks me off that people say this storm is/will be a dud or not organize much or whatever (and its not just here where its being said) and it hasn't even been developed for 24hours!! Nobody is forecasting any sort of rapid intensification for days, a very slow or flat intensification rate.

[wxmann_91]

Perhaps before everybody jumps in I should say that with every model, continuity is the key to establishing a trend.

If Global Fairy system still says this this time tomorrow then I'll be worried, but let's just say that this is one model run. The overall trend still suggests a fairly potent system.

Remember when the GFS had Emily hitting the central TX coastline? Then we all know what happened. And many of the other models are based on the GFS, so don't worry if all of a sudden many of the models kill Irene early in the game.

[WXFIEND]

gracias.

It looks as if you seem to know not to trust this run, sorry for jumping on you. I just got the vibe you supported it at first.

[Stratosphere747]

Unless this has been classified as a named storm...Then please change the name of your topic...

Sometimes mistakes are made, especially at this time of night.

Not a problem Jason...

I'm not a mod, but still old school....

Scott

[JTD]

From the NHC discussion:

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 18Z GFS MODEL
DID NOT APPEAR TO INITIALIZE THE CYCLONE WELL...WHILE THE 18Z
NOGAPS MODEL DISSIPATED THE SYSTEM IN LESS THAN 72 HR.

This is not the 1st model to dissipate the system.

[JTD]

Unless this has been classified as a named storm...Then please change the name of your topic...

Sometimes mistakes are made, especially at this time of night.

Not a problem Jason...

I'm not a mod, but still old school....

Scott

LOL. I don't know why I called it Irene! Of course, thanks for picking up on that especially given the content of the post.

I'm going to need to see it actually develop to buy into the hype now.

[clfenwi]

GFS routinely lost Emily during her developmental stages.

Also, it doesn't lose the system, it just fades in and out... here it as it 168 h for example:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_168s.gif

full loop:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[floridahurricaneguy]

I was wondering if it was just me who could not find it on GFS latest run. I was getting ready to post my own topic when I saw this. Very interesting. Will be intersting to see what the next run says.

[ALhurricane]

Taking a look at a loop of the 850mb vorticity chart, you can get a better idea of what the GFS wants to do with the system

Basically takes it on a WNW course through 180hrs. After 180 is when the GFS goes into la la land (talk about meteorological jargon) and drives the system southwest into Cuba.

The idea I would take out of the 00z GFS is that it is indicating there is not much of any feature to turn it north at this time.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Once again, just one run of the GFS, but I really can't argue with a long duration WNW track either.

[TS Zack]

It's actually fairly good and other models lose this system too.

SO you think Irene will not develop.

I can't believe this is already starting...

I guess people forget how everybody was writing off Emily early on and we know how it ended up...

TRUE!

[wxmann_91]

After 180 is when the GFS goes into la la land (talk about meteorological jargon) and drives the system southwest into Cuba.

Actually it has the system splitting into two parts, one that will move southwestward over Cuba and the Yucatan and then reemerging in the Bay of Campeche as a tropical cyclone.

Yea, good old GFS.

[ALhurricane]

Well the big reason the GFS starts to give odd looking solutions past 180hrs is because the model resolution truncates at that point.

[TS Zack]

LOL Jason. It has TD 9 in the Bay Of Campeche in 360hrs.