Tropical Depression Nine
August 5, 2005 12 am E
Unofficial Forecast #1
Mike Naso
Tropical Depression Nine appears to be holding it's own with good banding features and some modest convection.
The track is very very very difficult. It's currently moving west at 13 mph, and I don't really expect any change from that in the next 12-18 hours. After that, as the system slowly deepens, I expect a general west-northwesterly course through 24-48 hours. As the 72-120 hours period approches, there are mixed signals. Is the weakness left behind from Tropical Storm Harvey enough to pull this system further north? Models have been trending west, and since the system should not deepen at a faster than normal rate until atleast 72 hours, my track is further south than the National Hurricane Center track. At 120 hours, the system may begin slowing down, or moving more west-northwesterly. It is still too early.
As for intensification, conditions appear favorable for deepening throughout 120 hours. Therefore, I am expecting a gradual development followed by a more rapid deepening in 72-120 hours as the system will have a better defined inner core structure, and be moving over higher sea surface temperatures.
12 Hours: 13.1 N/ 37.6 W - 30 kt
24 Hours: 13.7 N/ 40.2 W - 35 kt
36 Hours: 14.1 N/ 42.3 W - 45 kt
48 Hours: 14.9 N/ 45.0 W - 55 kt
72 Hours: 16.2 N/ 49.7 W - 70 kt
96 Hours: 18.2 N/ 54.3 W - 80 kt
120 Hours: 20.8 N/ 58.2 W - 90 kt
