92L Invest

[cycloneye]

A new thread for 92L as it' keeps going.Post here TWO's,Model runs for 92L,Sat pics,T numbers,Discussions.

[shaggy]

thought 92l was dead but i have worked 3 days of 12 hour shifts so what have i missed?

[WindRunner]

The only circulation possibility I can find is about 17.8N 71W and only on the S side, mainly W half and it is still over land. The 35kt readings are still far removed from any center. I don't see anything happening through midweek.

[Coredesat]

[WeatherEmperor]

if the models are correct then this thing will go away from the US.

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND W ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM
23N77W TO JUST W OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W AND S TO NORTHERN
PANAMA. BULK OF WAVE ENERGY HAS SHEARED WELL TO THE NE OVER
THE ATLANTIC NE OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO WEAKENING THE
WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
E CUBA AND OVER W JAMAICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE.

[clfenwi]

Worth noting that there were two separate runs initialized at 18Z.

The one that the plot above depicts had an initial position of 22.8 North 70.0 West. SHIPS brought the system up to 67 knots in 96 hours.

There was also a run with an initial position of 22.6 North 66.8 West. The models brought the system no further east than 69.9 West before turning it east. SHIPS held intensity under hurricane strength.

[HurricaneQueen]

if the models are correct then this thing will go away from the US.

<RICKY>

Last time I checked, Florida was part of the US!!! Three of the models, depicted above, show it going through various parts of FL. Of course, I really don't expect anything of significance to occur.

Lynn

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Maybe not after this season...

The models are recurving it out to sea.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050801 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050801 0000 050801 1200 050802 0000 050802 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.0N 66.9W 24.6N 67.7W 26.3N 68.2W 27.8N 68.2W
BAMM 23.0N 66.9W 24.2N 68.1W 25.6N 68.8W 27.0N 69.1W
A98E 23.0N 66.9W 23.8N 67.1W 25.5N 67.7W 27.0N 67.7W
LBAR 23.0N 66.9W 24.1N 67.6W 25.2N 68.0W 26.0N 67.9W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050803 0000 050804 0000 050805 0000 050806 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.4N 67.6W 33.5N 64.1W 38.7N 53.6W 43.1N 44.6W
BAMM 28.4N 68.8W 31.6N 66.8W 34.4N 60.6W 37.6N 51.9W
A98E 28.4N 67.3W 31.3N 64.8W 35.4N 58.8W 41.6N 49.6W
LBAR 26.7N 67.9W 28.2N 67.6W 31.4N 65.6W 35.5N 59.8W
SHIP 42KTS 53KTS 59KTS 56KTS
DSHP 42KTS 53KTS 59KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.0N LONCUR = 66.9W DIRCUR = 345DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 22.1N LONM12 = 66.7W DIRM12 = 346DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 20.9N LONM24 = 66.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[EDR1222]

Looks like all that shear got the best of it.

[johngaltfla]

So are the models going to continue to initialize on the northern part of the split, or will a new Invest be assisgned if two circulations are suspected???

[WeatherEmperor]

if the models are correct then this thing will go away from the US.

<RICKY>

Last time I checked, Florida was part of the US!!! Three of the models, depicted above, show it going through various parts of FL. Of course, I really don't expect anything of significance to occur.

Lynn

Not likely. Just look at the 00Z models and tell me which one has this going to FL. Ill pay you $10 for each one. Promise.

<RICKY>

[HurricaneQueen]

<Ricky>

I apologize. I was going on the old run which was posted right above my reply. I now see the 00Z run and you are 100% correct. Mea culpa.

Lynn

[cycloneye]

KNHC 010226
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FROM
NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER THE
ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA...BUT MAY
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Swimdude]

I'm smelling a fish.

[gkrangers]

The NAM developes it into a cyclone and puts it north of its current position a few hundred miles east of Florida.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I see a broad LLC just north of Hati/DR around 23 north/68 west. Interesting. 92L is not dead!!!

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[P.K.]

Looks like this one is headed this way as well as 94L.

[Thunder44]

5:30 TWO:

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR IN THIS AREA...BUT THEY MAY BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.