Let's Face It, 92L Is A Bust

tropicstorm · #1 Postby **tropicstorm** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 12:37 pm

This storm is just not developing, as originally thought. Too much shear and now, land masses to deal with. They've even called off recon. 92L is a goner.

Thunder44 · #2 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 12:41 pm

tropicstorm wrote:This storm is just not developing, as originally thought. Too much shear and now, land masses to deal with. They've even called off recon. 92L is a goner.

It has a chance to develop once it get's into the GOM next week.

WindRunner · #3 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 12:48 pm

Not much of one the way it looks right now.

#4 Postby **Steve** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 12:59 pm

Some of the tops are cooling this afternoon. Nothing's going to happen in the next 24 hours, but after it's brush with the big islands, I could see some loose organization happening off southern FL. JMO

Steve

The Big Dog · #5 Postby **The Big Dog** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 1:02 pm

I'm still shaking my head at all the people who wanted to declare this a depression yesterday at 5pm, only so it could be declared an open wave again at 11.

#6 Postby **deltadog03** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 1:02 pm

I woudn't write this off YET...no way....

#7 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:14 pm

tropicstorm wrote:This storm is just not developing, as originally thought. Too much shear and now, land masses to deal with. They've even called off recon. 92L is a goner.

I'm not so sure 92L is finished with us:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

Website · #8 Postby **Brent** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:16 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:
tropicstorm wrote:This storm is just not developing, as originally thought. Too much shear and now, land masses to deal with. They've even called off recon. 92L is a goner.

I'm not so sure 92L is finished with us:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

It's over land.

At best a weak system once it gets into the Straits of Florida and the Gulf...

TS Zack · #9 Postby **TS Zack** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:18 pm

Looking at PR radar. A low-level circulation may be forming just Northwest of Puerto Rico.

I think this system will form. Not for another 36hours though. Let it get closer to the Bahamas.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #10 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:21 pm

deleted

Astro_man92 · #11 Postby **Astro_man92** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:22 pm

I don't think I have to really have to face it. That ULL is tearing 92L apart and there is nothing it can do about it. With my below amature skills i'd give it a 10% chance of not getting sawed to peices by that UL, a 85% chance of being sawed apart by the ULL, and a 5% chance that it will disipate because of the land it might move over soon.

#12 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:23 pm

TS Zack wrote:Looking at PR radar. A low-level circulation may be forming just Northwest of Puerto Rico.

I think this system will form. Not for another 36hours though. Let it get closer to the Bahamas.

I said this in another post. I asked what it was, but no one answered. I don't think it'll do much until it's in the Gulf though.

Hurricaneman · #13 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:24 pm

I cant count anything out this year

#14 Postby **Steve** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:35 pm

>>I don't think I have to really have to face it. That ULL is tearing 92L apart and there is nothing it can do about it. With my below amature skills i'd give it a 10% chance of not getting sawed to peices by that UL, a 85% chance of being sawed apart by the ULL...

That's a pretty big shear zone. If you run tropical atlantic goes WV @ 30 frames, it seems pretty dug in there. Many of the Caribbean waves and storms so far have followed a piece splitting off from that area further south. But most of those lows were already stretching, splitting and backing off to the SW as the energy pulled up just east of it allowing ridging to build over the top in the pattern reversal. I could be wrong, but it looks like 92l ended up on the wrong side of the jet in its area. There is some outflow into the upper atmosphere, but I don't see how it gets past this area as anything other than a wave.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

Steve

Swimdude · #15 Postby **Swimdude** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 4:39 pm

I know it's dead. But must we admit it? :cry:

Flakeys · #16 Postby **Flakeys** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 4:54 pm

At least bring me some rain!! Please!!

Astro_man92 · #17 Postby **Astro_man92** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 4:59 pm

k now i'm saying i'm not loosing hope with this system with it lasest cnvection I think it wouls be at least a TD if that darn ULL goes away heck once it gets to florida and if it doesn't hit the coast there this system my get a heck of a lot of convection.

so psycic astro forsee's tremendous convection in 92L future!! lol

wxmann_91 · #18 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 5:25 pm

Swimdude wrote:I know it's dead. But must we admit it?

Yes we do. If we let go of what is in the past...the future will hold bigger and better things.

But I must say that tropical cyclones have a tendency to rise from the grave, should the shear lessen, there is a chance of development around August 1. Then again, I wouldn't count on the shear lessening anytime soon.

Let's Face It, 92L Is A Bust

Let's Face It, 92L Is A Bust

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