historic? 22z July 28th GOM SST 85 - 95F!!!

[drezee]

Offshore Data at 22Z Jul 28
DAY/ ID Latit Longit Temp Dewp Wind Gust MaxGst Press PTend SeaT Wvht WvPd FULLID
HOUR (-degrees-) (---C---) (---degr/knots---) (millibars) (C) (m) (s)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
28/22 42001 25.8 -89.7 29.8 24.5 290 4 G 6 300 8 1015.7 -1.1 30.8 0.5 4 42001
28/22 42002 25.2 -94.4 29.8 23.5 110 6 G 8 100 8 1017.1 -0.6 30.7 0.5 5 42002
28/22 42003 26.0 -85.9 29.3 24.7 320 6 G 8 330 8 1015.0 -1.0 30.8 0.5 8 42003
28/22 42007 30.1 -88.8 30.0 25.2 230 8 G 8 240 8 1014.0 -0.8 31.6 0.0 0 42007
28/22 42013 27.2 -82.9 280 6 G 8 31.4 42013
28/22 42014 25.2 -82.2 30.7 1015.6 -0.7 31.2 42014
28/22 42019 27.9 -95.4 29.7 22.8 000 0 G 4 110 6 1015.7 -0.8 30.0 0.5 5 42019
28/22 42020 26.9 -96.7 28.9 24.7 110 10 G 12 110 12 1015.8 -0.8 30.5 0.5 5 42020
28/22 42021 28.3 -83.3 1015.1 -0.9 31.4 42021
28/22 42035 29.2 -94.4 30.5 22.8 220 6 G 8 1015.6 -1.5 31.5 0.5 6 42035
28/22 42036 28.8 -84.7 29.4 23.3 160 4 G 6 170 6 1014.9 -1.0 31.3 0.5 6 42036
28/22 42038 27.4 -92.6 30.2 22.9 330 4 G 4 330 8 1016.1 -0.8 30.9 0.5 6 42038
28/22 42039 28.8 -85.6 30.2 22.9 210 4 G 6 1014.9 -1.0 32.8 0.5 8 * 42039
28/22 42040 29.2 -88.2 30.8 24.1 300 2 G 2 270 4 1014.5 -1.3 31.5 0.5 4 42040
28/22 42055 22.0 -94.0 29.3 25.0 110 8 G 10 100 10 1015.8 -0.4 29.9 0.5 6 42055
28/22 42362 27.8 -90.7 28.0 23.0 290 8 1017.3 29.9 42362
28/22 42362 27.8 -90.7 28.0 24.0 260 16 1017.6 29.8 42362
28/22 42362 27.8 -90.7 31.0 24.0 270 16 1017.3 29.9 42362
28/22 42362 27.8 -90.7 31.0 25.0 230 6 1017.3 -0.3 29.8 42362
28/22 42363 28.2 -89.2 290 8 42363
28/22 42363 28.2 -89.2 290 10 42363
28/22 42363 28.2 -89.2 300 10 42363
28/22 42363 28.2 -89.2 300 12 42363
28/22 ARPF1 28.4 -82.6 31.2 310 6 G 8 1012.7 -0.6 33.6 * ARPF1
28/22 BURL1 28.9 -89.3 28.0 300 3 G 4 300 17 1015.2 -0.8 BURL1
28/22 CDRF1 29.1 -82.9 31.4 24.6 250 7 G 10 240 11 1014.7 -1.2 CDRF1
28/22 DGNB 19.2 -96.1 30.2 24.6 1015.2 -1.9 30.8 DGNB
28/22 DPIA1 30.3 -88.0 30.7 23.7 170 5 G 6 160 7 1013.9 -1.1 33.3 * DPIA1
28/22 GDIL1 29.3 -89.9 28.8 23.5 290 8 G 9 270 16 1015.6 -0.5 31.3 GDIL1
28/22 HSSF1 28.8 -82.6 31.9 300 8 G 10 1014.0 -0.8 33.2 * HSSF1
28/22 ILDL1 29.0 -90.4 28.3 340 10 G 12 1016.6 30.9 0.0 0 ILDL1
28/22 KTNF1 29.8 -83.5 30.7 23.3 230 8 G 10 220 11 1014.7 -1.2 KTNF1
28/22 LUML1 29.3 -90.6 24.7 22.6 080 5 G 6 1014.6 -0.7 29.5 LUML1
28/22 MRSL1 29.4 -92.0 30.4 270 11 G 13 1014.9 0.0 0 MRSL1
28/22 PCNT2 28.5 -96.3 170 10 35.1 * PCNT2
28/22 PTAT2 27.8 -97.0 29.6 23.8 120 13 G 14 110 16 1015.4 -1.1 32.1 * PTAT2
28/22 PTRF1 28.3 -82.6 31.9 320 6 G 8 35.1 * PTRF1
28/22 RTOT2 27.8 -96.9 110 12 RTOT2
28/22 SANF1 24.1 -82.0 30.8 200 2 G 3 250 5 1015.6 -0.5 30.9 SANF1
28/22 SGOF1 29.4 -84.8 29.7 22.1 200 10 G 11 190 12 1014.9 -1.3 32.6 * SGOF1
28/22 SHPF1 30.1 -84.2 31.6 190 8 G 12 1014.4 -1.3 SHPF1
28/22 SLPL1 29.5 -91.5 31.5 230 12 G 14 1014.9 33.2 0.0 0 * SLPL1
28/22 SPLL1 28.9 -90.4 29.8 020 8 G 10 1015.8 32.0 0.5 4 * SPLL1
28/22 SRST2 29.7 -94.0 31.5 21.5 210 16 G 19 210 19 1015.0 -1.4 SRST2
28/22 TAML1 29.2 -90.6 27.3 21.3 050 12 G 14 1015.6 0.0 31.1 TAML1
28/22 TARF1 28.1 -82.6 35.7 310 4 G 6 * TARF1
28/22 VENF1 27.1 -82.4 29.4 24.8 240 5 G 7 220 8 1014.2 -1.2 VENF1

[drezee]

PTRF1 O 2154 28.28 -82.73 398 67 320 6.0 8.0 - - - - - - 89.4 95.2 - - 1.92


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=PCNT2

PCNT2 O 2200 28.45 -96.40 392 295 170 9.9 - - - - - - - - 95.2 - - -

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

All I got to say is BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM go's any tropical depression that moves into that area.

[Lowpressure]

That is incredible avaliable heat energy for any system that would move through.

[TSmith274]

Damn, where is that?? Isn't that off the La. coast?

[KatDaddy]

Damn thats off the Middle/Upper TX Coast near Matagorda!

Anything getting into the NW GOM could be disasterous. For that fact homebrew could rapidly intensify with that heat content. Downright scary

[Derek Ortt]

yeah; however, the heat content still is extremely low in the northern GOM. That is really just a surface layer, unlike the NW Caribbean, which has waters 8-10 deg cooler, but the warm water extends well below the surface, which is why the systems usually explode in that region

[baygirl_1]

sounds about right. my sister and her family were fishing near one of the oil rigs off gulf shores (al) last weekend and according to the equipment on their boat the water temp. was 92. boom, indeed.

[Derecho]

All I got to say is BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM go's any tropical depression that moves into that area.

I've seen plenty of years where the GOM is hot and there's no tropical activity at all there.

More to life than SSTs.

And actually the GOM really isn't egregiously warmer than normal. It's normal for GOM SSTs to be extremely hot in late July, August, and September EVERY year; oddly, every year, people seem to be surprised by this.

[drezee]

All I got to say is BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM go's any tropical depression that moves into that area.

I've seen plenty of years where the GOM is hot and there's no tropical activity at all there.

More to life than SSTs.

And actually the GOM really isn't egregiously warmer than normal. It's normal for GOM SSTs to be extremely hot in late July, August, and September EVERY year; oddly, every year, people seem to be surprised by this.

I have never seen 95.2F though. I have seen 94 though.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Derecho I disagree- this is clearly not the case locally. The temp at Clearwater beach is 93- hottest in at least 25 years. This is clearly not only egregiously warm but exceptionally warm.

While there are other factors than SSTs, SSTs still have significant influence.

"More to life than SSTs"- That wording is somewhat denigrating. Please watch the wording. You should say "there's more to storm developlment than SSTs"

[drezee]

N GOM water temps normally crest in mid/late August. If anything get there with a nice environment, it will not be weakening on the way in. If Ivan were to hit now...different story would be told...

http://coolwx.com/buoydata/data/t-02/gu ... alysis.png

[TSmith274]

yeah; however, the heat content still is extremely low in the northern GOM. That is really just a surface layer, unlike the NW Caribbean, which has waters 8-10 deg cooler, but the warm water extends well below the surface, which is why the systems usually explode in that region

Great point... I didn't think of that.

[drezee]

yeah; however, the heat content still is extremely low in the northern GOM. That is really just a surface layer, unlike the NW Caribbean, which has waters 8-10 deg cooler, but the warm water extends well below the surface, which is why the systems usually explode in that region

Great point... I didn't think of that.

Currently, the highest heat content in the atlantic basin is in the North Central GOM:

[TSmith274]

man, another good point. I need to start doing my own research!

[Swimdude]

Hot tub sales are going to start going down pretty soon... People will just be jumping the in Gulf!

[Derek Ortt]

however, that map also shows that except for s strike near the mouth of the MS River, it has to cross the very cold shelf waters. We'd likely see about a 15-20KT weakening of a cat 4 or 5 on final approach

[Derecho]

Derecho I disagree- this is clearly not the case locally. The temp at Clearwater beach is 93- hottest in at least 25 years. This is clearly not only egregiously warm but exceptionally warm.

There's a BIG difference between point coastal SSTs (which often are a VERY thin layer at the surface) and the broad SST values, and especially the Heat Content Values extending well below the surface, of the GOM as a whole.

Examining NCODA anomaly maps the GOM as a whole is about 1 degree C above normal, other than the Emily wake in the SW GOM, which is below normal; and there's nothing really unusual about the Hurricane Heat Content maps for the GOM at the moment; tons of heat content in the Loop Current just south of Louisiana, limited heat content elsewhere.

Given the right upper level conditions you can have a Cat 5 pretty much anywhere in the GOM now; however, NORMALLY, every year, in late July, August, and September, you can have a Cat 5 with the right upper level conditions, and, of course, the storm has to exist.

It's just I've seen the "Gosh, the GOM is really warm!" thread in July or August of single tropical season since 1995 and always sort of wondered when people would stop being amazed by this.

"More to life than SSTs"- That wording is somewhat denigrating. Please watch the wording. You should say "there's more to storm developlment than SSTs"

Good lord, if you're somehow offended by that wording, you need to get off the internet. In fact, I wonder how you leave the house or turn on the TV without bursting into tears. Get a grip; and don't expect me to spend hours agonizing over what words I choose to avoid offending the whiniest and most ridiculously hypersensitive board members.

Believe me, if I intended to be denigrating, I would be.

[drezee]

I have allowed certain statements to be made without countering, but I must here. There has been many a statement about fizzling storms in the GOM on the way in. What few realize is this...it is not about the time of year just as much as the water shelf of the GOM. In September, the water shelf in the GOM changes and allows for cooler water to locate near the surface of the water. In Early/Mid July, the shelf water has not warmed enough. Name one August GOM Hurricane that weakened on the way in...I'll give you a cookie.

[Derek Ortt]

Andrew, do I get my cookie, lol


this weakening rule only applies to strong cat 4 or 5 storms moving to the northern GOM. Won't work for the mouth of the MS River though due to the eddy

however, the NGOM can sustain a cat 3 storm, which as Dennis and Ivan showed, is more than bad enough for the area