Where is the center of 92L?

[cycloneye]

This system has seen multiple centers thru it's life.So the question is where it is right now.

I see a surface reflection around 17n-55w.Or maybe is a Mid-Level Circulation.I would lie to see those great pics that wxman57 brings a lot.

What about you where do you see the center?

[Trader Ron]

Just a guess. Seems around 16 N 52.5 W.

[shaggy]

19N 51W seems to have some sort of spin starting up and looks to be the most promising place for a start on 92L.Looking healthier by the hour and models want to bend it back west towards the bahamas but there is also suppose to be a trough dropping to the east coast next week too.

[cycloneye]

After looking more closely I see something trying to spin around 18n-52w in the convection.

[Hurricaneman]

If that happens, it would be a fish

[Ivanhater]

If that happens, it would be a fish

umm, how do you figure?

[Hurricaneman]

I think that new trough that is suppoedly dipping down will pick it up

[Ivanhater]

I think that new trough that is suppoedly dipping down will pick it up

read the miami thread, ridge is forecast to build in

[cycloneye]

Any more opinions about where the center of 92L is?

[jasons2k]

Any more opinions about where the center of 92L is?

Not me! I see one small LLC well removed from the convection to the SW and it looks like a couple of mid-level circulations within and around the convection. If I had to pinpoint anything I might as well be throwing darts at the screen - hehe.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The center is reforming under the convection. 18 north/52 west ploted by the models. There is nice curving with convection all around it. I would not be suprized to see a depression develop rather soon.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html


DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.



.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050728 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

050728 1200 050729 0000 050729 1200 050730 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 18.2N 52.4W 19.6N 54.6W 21.0N 56.3W 22.3N 57.8W

BAMM 18.2N 52.4W 19.4N 55.3W 20.5N 57.9W 21.7N 60.2W

A98E 18.2N 52.4W 19.0N 56.2W 20.5N 59.1W 22.5N 61.1W

LBAR 18.2N 52.4W 19.6N 54.9W 20.8N 57.5W 21.8N 59.6W

SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS 49KTS

DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS 49KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

050730 1200 050731 1200 050801 1200 050802 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 23.5N 59.3W 24.6N 61.6W 24.2N 63.5W 23.8N 65.0W

BAMM 22.9N 62.3W 24.6N 65.5W 24.8N 68.1W 24.8N 70.8W

A98E 24.8N 62.6W 28.8N 66.3W 30.8N 68.2W 31.2N 67.4W

LBAR 22.6N 61.4W 23.1N 64.0W 23.2N 65.8W 23.5N 66.7W

SHIP 55KTS 63KTS 67KTS 70KTS

DSHP 55KTS 63KTS 67KTS 70KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 18.2N LONCUR = 52.4W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 18KT

LATM12 = 15.6N LONM12 = 49.9W DIRM12 = 333DEG SPDM12 = 19KT

LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 47.7W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[mike18xx]

The center is reforming under the convection. 18 north/52 west ploted by the models.

Examining visibles, I don't see it happening at the surface, and I've never seen a system shaped like this one do that before. What should happen as that any so-called "new centers" on the SAL boundary will collapse in a series of outflow arcs to the northwest; these will race around and reinforce the real center:

[micktooth]

Does it look like 92L is merging with 93L or is it just an optical illusion?

[wxwatcher91]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 281859
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050728 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050728 1800 050729 0600 050729 1800 050730 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.4N 53.4W 19.6N 55.7W 20.9N 57.7W 22.0N 59.6W
BAMM 18.4N 53.4W 19.5N 56.1W 20.8N 58.6W 21.9N 60.6W
A98E 18.4N 53.4W 18.9N 56.0W 20.0N 58.5W 21.5N 60.7W
LBAR 18.4N 53.4W 19.4N 55.7W 20.4N 57.8W 21.1N 59.7W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050730 1800 050731 1800 050801 1800 050802 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.0N 61.4W 24.3N 64.3W 24.7N 66.4W 24.9N 68.4W
BAMM 23.0N 62.6W 24.4N 65.6W 24.8N 68.0W 25.1N 70.4W
A98E 23.2N 63.1W 25.9N 67.3W 27.2N 70.2W 27.3N 71.5W
LBAR 21.8N 61.4W 22.4N 64.3W 22.9N 66.2W 23.7N 67.4W
SHIP 55KTS 63KTS 66KTS 70KTS
DSHP 55KTS 63KTS 66KTS 70KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.4N LONCUR = 53.4W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 17.1N LONM12 = 50.9W DIRM12 = 318DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 13.8N LONM24 = 49.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....


here's my estimate... may be way off but who knows...

[WeatherEmperor]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 281859
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050728 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050728 1800 050729 0600 050729 1800 050730 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.4N 53.4W 19.6N 55.7W 20.9N 57.7W 22.0N 59.6W
BAMM 18.4N 53.4W 19.5N 56.1W 20.8N 58.6W 21.9N 60.6W
A98E 18.4N 53.4W 18.9N 56.0W 20.0N 58.5W 21.5N 60.7W
LBAR 18.4N 53.4W 19.4N 55.7W 20.4N 57.8W 21.1N 59.7W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050730 1800 050731 1800 050801 1800 050802 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.0N 61.4W 24.3N 64.3W 24.7N 66.4W 24.9N 68.4W
BAMM 23.0N 62.6W 24.4N 65.6W 24.8N 68.0W 25.1N 70.4W
A98E 23.2N 63.1W 25.9N 67.3W 27.2N 70.2W 27.3N 71.5W
LBAR 21.8N 61.4W 22.4N 64.3W 22.9N 66.2W 23.7N 67.4W
SHIP 55KTS 63KTS 66KTS 70KTS
DSHP 55KTS 63KTS 66KTS 70KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.4N LONCUR = 53.4W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 17.1N LONM12 = 50.9W DIRM12 = 318DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 13.8N LONM24 = 49.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....


here's my estimate... may be way off but who knows...

that is very close to where I think the center is myself.

<RICKY>

[mike18xx]

Geez, people; watch the VISIBLES. IR is total crappola for trying to spot LLCs.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

The actual center is blatantly obvious once you crank up the animation speed.

[BigA]

Seems to me that there is an old center racing away from the convection, and perhaps a new circulation trying to form under the convection.

[Sanibel]

The surface center is where Mike put it in his green circle.


There could be a second center trying to form back up in the deeper convection...

[jhamps10]

The surface center is where Mike put it in his green circle.


There could be a second center trying to form back up in the deeper convection...

Looks like to me that the center is in a deep area of convection around 20N-49.2W. I may be totally off track here, but that's where it looks to me.

[Weatherboy1]

earlier (several hours ago), it appeared that the main center was farther E, as someone in this thread indicated. But now, I believe, this wave is consolidating itself around 18.5N 53.5W or so. In the last few satelite frames, there has been more "popcorn-looking" convection popping around that area, vs. just the high-level clouds we saw earlier. And some low-level cloud bands appear to be forming around that general area.

That's my two cents, anyway
-Mike