moving to tampa! hurricanes?

[floridahurricaneguy]

hey,

I am a total weather nut and love all kinds of severe and tropical weather. Anyways I just found out I am moving to a place just north of Tampa called New Port Richey. We will be about 15-17 miles north of Tampa Bay and about 7 miles east of the Gulf of Mexico. How at risk are we for hurricanes in that locations? I know its been since like 1921 when Tampa got a direct hit. So in your opinion do you take Tampa is over due? Just a total prediction?... are my chances any good of seeing a hurricane in Tampa this season. I am looking forward to some action in now that I am moving there. Give me your opinions.

Matt

[The Big Dog]

Statistically speaking, there's no such thing as "overdue." Just because a storm hasn't hit in over 80 years doesn't mean their odds are building up. A year without a hit does not mean that the chances of getting struck will be greater next year.

It's like if you flip a coin and it comes up heads 10 times in a row. The odds of a tails aren't any better on the 11th flip than they were on first 10.

[wxcrazytwo]

I disagree BIG DOG. Let's look at California. When people say they are overdue for the BIG ONE, it is because pressure builds over time making it more likely that a big one will come sooner than later. Will it come in increments or on big blast? Who knows, but I'd say Tampa will get hit buy many smaller ones that one big punch, and if it does get hit by one big punch, it will be like no other....

[bahamaswx]

Who knows, but I'd say Tampa will get hit buy many smaller ones that one big punch, and if it does get hit by one big punch, it will be like no other....

Disregarding the simple fact that landfalling tropical storms are much more common than landfalling major hurricanes, such a prediction has no grounds behind it.

[Downdraft]

I disagree BIG DOG. Let's look at California. When people say they are overdue for the BIG ONE, it is because pressure builds over time making it more likely that a big one will come sooner than later. Will it come in increments or on big blast? Who knows, but I'd say Tampa will get hit buy many smaller ones that one big punch, and if it does get hit by one big punch, it will be like no other....

Sorry to disagree with your logic. A seismic event such as an earthquake along an established fault line does not fall into the category of a statistical probability but rather a mathematical certitude. The stresses of seismic movement are constant. Hurricane landfalls on the other hand depend on many external factors to influence strength and direction. If one looks at a long enough time frame then you can say it will occur "some" day. You can't however say the odds for a specific area to be hit grow with each passing year. There simply is no comparison between earthquake frequency in a specific area and hurricane landfalls in another.

[floridahurricaneguy]

There is really no scientific reason unlike earthquakes. I do think it seems like when places go untouched for a while they get suprised when a big one or semi big hits them.

Matt

[Hurricaneman]

I wouldnt worry about it

[CentralFlGal]

hey,

I am a total weather nut and love all kinds of severe and tropical weather. Anyways I just found out I am moving to a place just north of Tampa called New Port Richey. We will be about 15-17 miles north of Tampa Bay and about 7 miles east of the Gulf of Mexico. How at risk are we for hurricanes in that locations? I know its been since like 1921 when Tampa got a direct hit. So in your opinion do you take Tampa is over due? Just a total prediction?... are my chances any good of seeing a hurricane in Tampa this season. I am looking forward to some action in now that I am moving there. Give me your opinions.

Matt

There's just no sure-fire way to tell whether or not Tampa Bay will be visited by a hurricane this season, next season, 5 years out, etc. About all you can do is be prepared in the event that it does occur.

[Rainband]

Time will tell. We got lucky last year. Will it last??? I hope so.

[Stratusxpeye]

We got hugely lucky last year. Luckier than anything ive seen before. Tampa would be no more if charlie would have made it up the bay as a 5. Crazy to even think bout it. Theyve done several shows and newspaper pages on an analysis if it would of hit here. Someday we will get whacked. Just never know when it will be.

[Ziplock]

Just make sure your dwelling is on the highest ground around...always a good strategy. Not implying that you will have a storm surge risk where you are going...however, there is always the chance of a significant flooding event with landfalling tropical systems so you don't want to be lower than the next guy.

Welcome to Florida Make sure to check out the Columbia restaurant and get the Spanish Bean Soup. Maybe if enough Tampa residents consume enough of the bean soup, you'll be able to "blow" any approaching hurricane back out into the Gulf.

Sorry, just couldn't resist.
Zip

[EDR1222]

Welcome to Florida Make sure to check out the Columbia restaurant and get the Spanish Bean Soup. Maybe if enough Tampa residents consume enough of the bean soup, you'll be able to "blow" any approaching hurricane back out into the Gulf.

Sorry, just couldn't resist.
Zip

[NPR]

Welcome to New Port Richey!

[The Big Dog]

Welcome to Florida Make sure to check out the Columbia restaurant and get the Spanish Bean Soup. Maybe if enough Tampa residents consume enough of the bean soup, you'll be able to "blow" any approaching hurricane back out into the Gulf.

Sorry, just couldn't resist.
Zip

I don't know, man... all that hot, moist air?

[Ziplock]

Welcome to Florida Make sure to check out the Columbia restaurant and get the Spanish Bean Soup. Maybe if enough Tampa residents consume enough of the bean soup, you'll be able to "blow" any approaching hurricane back out into the Gulf.

Sorry, just couldn't resist.
Zip

I don't know, man... all that hot, moist air?

Ha Ha Ha! You just might be right, could cause explosive deepening...don't anybody strike a match....

[Amanzi]

Welcome to Florida Make sure to check out the Columbia restaurant and get the Spanish Bean Soup. Maybe if enough Tampa residents consume enough of the bean soup, you'll be able to "blow" any approaching hurricane back out into the Gulf.

Sorry, just couldn't resist.
Zip

I don't know, man... all that hot, moist air?

Ha Ha Ha! You just might be right, could cause explosive deepening...don't anybody strike a match....

EEEEEEWWWWWWWWw people! Some of us eat lunch while reading the board!

[CentralFlGal]

[Astro_man92]

I disagree BIG DOG. Let's look at California. When people say they are overdue for the BIG ONE, it is because pressure builds over time making it more likely that a big one will come sooner than later. Will it come in increments or on big blast? Who knows, but I'd say Tampa will get hit buy many smaller ones that one big punch, and if it does get hit by one big punch, it will be like no other....

the conseps of geology (earthquakes) and meterology (hurricanes) are two totaly different things. the reason why california is waiting for the BIG ONE is because if the earths plates there arn't moving and they are not having nearly constant miniature earthquakes that means that the pressure between the plates is not being releast meaning that it is building up and the BIG ONE is when the pressure is not releast for so long that the plates suddenly jurk and a major earthquake happens. now tell me does a hurricane go through any of that does a hurricane even have any thing to do with that.
what i'm getting at is a hurricane is formed by different temperatues creating convedtion and forming thunder storms that start to spiral around a center and eventually a deppression forms.
what does that have to do with pessure building up. how does that sequence of events build the chances of one particular area to get hit

now if any one dissagrees with anthing in this entry please tell me

[Astro_man92]

Just make sure your dwelling is on the highest ground around...always a good strategy. Not implying that you will have a storm surge risk where you are going...however, there is always the chance of a significant flooding event with landfalling tropical systems so you don't want to be lower than the next guy.

Welcome to Florida Make sure to check out the Columbia restaurant and get the Spanish Bean Soup. Maybe if enough Tampa residents consume enough of the bean soup, you'll be able to "blow" any approaching hurricane back out into the Gulf.

Sorry, just couldn't resist.
Zip

that is funny

[Downdraft]

I disagree BIG DOG. Let's look at California. When people say they are overdue for the BIG ONE, it is because pressure builds over time making it more likely that a big one will come sooner than later. Will it come in increments or on big blast? Who knows, but I'd say Tampa will get hit buy many smaller ones that one big punch, and if it does get hit by one big punch, it will be like no other....

the conseps of geology (earthquakes) and meterology (hurricanes) are two totaly different things. the reason why california is waiting for the BIG ONE is because if the earths plates there arn't moving and they are not having nearly constant miniature earthquakes that means that the pressure between the plates is not being releast meaning that it is building up and the BIG ONE is when the pressure is not releast for so long that the plates suddenly jurk and a major earthquake happens. now tell me does a hurricane go through any of that does a hurricane even have any thing to do with that.
what i'm getting at is a hurricane is formed by different temperatues creating convedtion and forming thunder storms that start to spiral around a center and eventually a deppression forms.
what does that have to do with pessure building up. how does that sequence of events build the chances of one particular area to get hit

now if any one dissagrees with anthing in this entry please tell me

In a sense it's a misconception that earthquakes "release" energy by reducing the stress on the plates. In effect what happens is they transfer that energy along the fault line. Take for example the San Andreas fault. Now say a 5 strikes southern California. It seems as if the frictional dissipation of the energy is released over a wide area. What happens for real though is the stresses become greater on the northern sections of the fault now. An earthquake in Los Angeles actually increases the probability of a larger quake in San Francisco. The plates aren't uniform in distance. If the southern section moves say a 1/4 of an inch further west (gross exaggeration for purposes of the illustration) then the northern section some day will be compelled to catch up.