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hicksta
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#1 Postby hicksta » Mon Jul 18, 2005 1:34 pm

Could we have another storm soon.. South of Antigua.. Basiclly were emily started.Just looks like convection, no organzation no circulation. Just wondering though
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 18, 2005 1:38 pm

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS REPOSITIONED ALONG 62W S
OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE MID-OCEANIC
TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL ELY SURGE.
ANALYSIS OF LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS VORTICITY
PRODUCTS INDICATES THAT THE WAVE BECAME TILTED FROM THE NW/SE
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE
DETACHED AND ACCELERATED AHEAD OF THE S PORTION OF THE WAVE.
ANALYSIS OF AREA SOUNDINGS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOWER TO
MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING THE ISLANDS YESTERDAY BUT THIS APPEARS
TO BE A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT
POSITION...AMPLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS
INTERACTING WITH THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN AND PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER
THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO BUT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO SHEAR.


From Discussion at 2:05 PM.The answer is no.
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#3 Postby dwg71 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 1:38 pm

I'll take a lull till sept thank you very much...
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hicksta
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#4 Postby hicksta » Mon Jul 18, 2005 1:39 pm

Alright thanks :D
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#5 Postby Swimdude » Mon Jul 18, 2005 2:17 pm

From the discussion in short...

It's getting sheared to death.
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#6 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 18, 2005 2:30 pm

Almost all the Caribbean Sea has the shear increasing over the last 24 hours, according to the Wind Shar map. Environment too hostile for future development. It's July!

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