12:00z Models=Moving 305,16 kt

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cycloneye
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12:00z Models=Moving 305,16 kt

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 18, 2005 7:33 am

HURRICANE EMILY (AL052005) ON 20050718 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050718 1200 050719 0000 050719 1200 050720 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.4N 88.9W 22.8N 91.3W 23.8N 93.4W 24.6N 95.5W
BAMM 21.4N 88.9W 22.7N 91.5W 23.7N 93.9W 24.4N 96.1W
A98E 21.4N 88.9W 23.3N 91.5W 25.0N 93.8W 26.4N 96.0W
LBAR 21.4N 88.9W 23.1N 91.5W 24.6N 94.0W 26.0N 96.4W
SHIP 85KTS 89KTS 95KTS 98KTS
DSHP 85KTS 89KTS 95KTS 98KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050720 1200 050721 1200 050722 1200 050723 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.9N 98.0W 25.9N 104.8W 27.5N 110.8W 29.3N 115.8W
BAMM 24.8N 98.6W 25.5N 105.5W 26.5N 112.1W 27.4N 117.5W
A98E 27.7N 98.5W 31.4N 103.8W 34.4N 107.3W 36.0N 106.5W
LBAR 27.3N 98.8W 30.2N 103.5W 33.8N 107.3W 38.2N 106.2W
SHIP 100KTS 103KTS 102KTS 95KTS
DSHP 60KTS 30KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.4N LONCUR = 88.9W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 19.5N LONM12 = 85.8W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 18.3N LONM24 = 82.8W
WNDCUR = 85KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 120KT
CENPRS = 975MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 130NM RD34SE = 125NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 110NM
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 18, 2005 7:42 am

Could Emily do the same Dennis did? Intensify to the same category it once was, 4. Let see what happens.
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#3 Postby Anonymous » Mon Jul 18, 2005 7:50 am

Cycloneye why do you think the models shifted again? I am crossing my fingers that it is a bad run :roll:
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#4 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 7:51 am

thunder, 2 of them have shifted north...to just north of brownsville...
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#5 Postby Lowpressure » Mon Jul 18, 2005 7:51 am

HURAKAN wrote:Could Emily do the same Dennis did? Intensify to the same category it once was, 4. Let see what happens.


Most ingredients seem to be in place to do so. It reallt depends on how fast she regains composure. How fast she develops a clear eye will tell the tale. Southern Texas need to pay attention, it still looks to be right of forecast track.
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#6 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jul 18, 2005 7:53 am

disturbing trend for south Texas ....
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#7 Postby Normandy » Mon Jul 18, 2005 7:55 am

If it gets anywhere near South Padre and Brownsville its gonna be reallllly ugly.
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#8 Postby Anonymous » Mon Jul 18, 2005 7:55 am

deltadog03 wrote:thunder, 2 of them have shifted north...to just north of brownsville...


Thank-you I am not good with coordinates, I am feeling better now thanks :wink:
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#9 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 7:56 am

here is the link...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif
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#10 Postby Normandy » Mon Jul 18, 2005 7:57 am

Some of those runs are old.
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#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 18, 2005 7:59 am

Image

Graphic updated.
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#12 Postby canegrl04 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 7:59 am

Someone on the board said that sometimes when hurricanes go over land,it can take them off their original course and make them go in another direction.
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#13 Postby KatDaddy » Mon Jul 18, 2005 8:13 am

Joe B is very concerned for S TX. Model runs have trended further N as far as Corpus Christi. He is very very concerned about rapid intensification over the extremely warm waters of the W GOM.
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