Emily Forecast #7: Double hit for Mexico

[Josephine96]

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
HURRICANE EMILY
NJN WEATHER CENTER
11PM SUN JULY 17TH 2005

Hurricane Emily has begun her assault on Cancun and the rest of the Yucatan Channel in extreme Eastern Mexico. Her winds at 8pm were around 135 mph. This makes Emily a strong Category 4 as she approaches the coast.

Emily should begin to weaken for the time being as she interacts with land.. This may be good news for other Mexicans when the storm hits Mexico a 2nd time possibly as early as Tuesday but probably not till Wednesday.

Emily is not expected to reach near Cat 5 status again. She will be ripped up by the land, and will not have as much warm water or time to reorganize when she makes the short trip across the BOC.

Those in South Texas should still continue to watch Emily just in case she decides to make a big jerk to the north, though it's not anticipated.

Here's our experimental 5 day forecast on Emily:
Tonight: Making 1st Landfall around Cancun. Max Winds: 130 mph
Monday: Crossing the Yucatan. Weakening. Max Winds: 110 mph
Tuesday: Into the Western BOC, getting ready for 2nd landfall. Max Winds: 120 mph
Wednesday: Well into Mexico. Max Winds: 55 mph
Thursday: Around 105 degrees West. Well dissipated. Max Winds: 30 mph
Friday: Possibly making a short trek into Baja, California. Max Winds: 15 mph

DISCLAIMER:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[EDR1222]

Good forecast! And I agree, due to some uncertainties concerning the weakness that is anticipated with the ridge, Texas should still pay very close attention until she is inland and dissipating.