"My Unofficial Emily Forecast" thread

[mike18xx]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



(Spleen away, weebles! You may critique the guy above you -- but you should really post your own forecast, then crow of your glorious victory tomorrow!)

Judging from today's imagery, Emily is reintensifying once again after slight morning weakening. Unfortunately, the regime appears that it will peak just as Emily moves ashore barely south of Cozumel (subjecting the island to the brunt of the right-side eyewall). Landfall intensity: 935mb, 150msw/gusts190.

Down the road: Analog storm Gilbert faired poorly after traversing the northern Yucatan (which features colder upwelled water along its northwestern shore); Gilbert was also a sprawling storm which lost a steep pressure gradient once the central core collapsed over land; Emily, by being a smaller system, will probably weaken more over land, but also rebound faster in the Bay of Campechi. I'll call 130mph for the second landfall if heading remains WNW, or stronger if there's a NW trace toward Brownsville (which I am less inclined toward at this time).

[Hurricaneman]

You need a disclaimer

[mike18xx]

I rather thought the title of the thread gave it away, but...you are correct. Tis board policy now.