July 16 12Z Global Models NOGAPS/GFS/UKMET/CAN/ECMWF

[clfenwi]

Little bit later than usual, but that's OK since the European just hit the web....comparisions are to 00Z runs of the model...

NOGAPS...similar up to 48 hours...at 48 h..subtley further north....upper Yucatan landfall...slightly further north at 84 h...landfall in 84 hours N Mexico....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2005071612


European...slightly north of previous run... second landfall indicated IVO Poza Rica at 96 h....

http://tinyurl.com/8uvnw

UKMET... similar up to 36 h...after, starts deviating north...tip of Yucatan landfall at 42 h...second landfall at 84 h just south of Rio Grande...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

Canadian...actually depicts a low for the entire forecast...tracksimilar to prev...Upper Yucatan landfall 36-48h...second landfall IVO Tampico at 84 h...

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_for ... bal_e.html

GFS...faster and further south...landfall in 42 h at Mexico/Belize border... second landfall IVO Veracruz at 78h or so...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

In 24 hours the GFS has gone from being the northern-most model to the southern most. It is the only one with a trend, if you can call the big jumps a trend...

UKMET/NOGAPS/ECMWF all broke their southerly trend, UKMET being the most extreme. As usual, NOGAPS and ECMWF are somewhat more consistent in their tracks, although they have had small vacilliations in the past 24 h...

[canegrl04]

I think the Monday model runs will give us a pretty clear indication of where Em will make landfall in the GOM

[Derek Ortt]

GFS only keeps a broad low. I dont put that much faith in a model that shows a cat 5 as a broad TD; thus, CMC and GFS aren't meaningful and GFS is already left of reality

[deltadog03]

to me...the models are pretty far south of EM's current position...will be interesting to see what shakes loose