00:00z Model Guidance=Old Mexico

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cycloneye
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00:00z Model Guidance=Old Mexico

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:45 pm

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE EMILY (AL052005) ON 20050716 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050716 0000 050716 1200 050717 0000 050717 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.9N 73.4W 16.0N 76.3W 17.0N 79.3W 18.0N 82.1W
BAMM 14.9N 73.4W 15.8N 76.8W 16.5N 80.0W 17.2N 83.2W
A98E 14.9N 73.4W 15.8N 76.4W 16.9N 79.3W 18.0N 82.1W
LBAR 14.9N 73.4W 16.0N 76.6W 17.2N 80.1W 18.4N 83.6W
SHIP 100KTS 96KTS 93KTS 91KTS
DSHP 100KTS 96KTS 93KTS 91KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050718 0000 050719 0000 050720 0000 050721 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.1N 84.8W 21.3N 89.5W 22.9N 93.6W 24.4N 98.1W
BAMM 18.1N 86.0W 19.9N 90.9W 21.2N 94.8W 23.0N 98.5W
A98E 18.9N 85.0W 21.4N 90.6W 23.1N 95.6W 24.6N 99.8W
LBAR 19.8N 86.9W 22.9N 92.9W 23.3N 95.2W 23.7N 98.3W
SHIP 87KTS 83KTS 80KTS 77KTS
DSHP 77KTS 70KTS 67KTS 31KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.9N LONCUR = 73.4W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 14.2N LONM12 = 70.1W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 66.7W
WNDCUR = 100KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 115KT
CENPRS = 958MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 100NM

Image

Refresh Graphic to see the 00z run.

Muchos Tacos. :)
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#2 Postby Normandy » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:49 pm

....eh dont think a track like the NHC states would make this a Mexico storm....that track would severely affect South Padre Island and Brownsville.
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#3 Postby dwg71 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:50 pm

The trend is south and west... If it will just hold there for another 48 hours, i would feel better.
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#4 Postby hicksta » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:51 pm

i dont think it will hold... the storm seems north of its projected path
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#5 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:51 pm

Normandy wrote:....eh dont think a track like the NHC states would make this a Mexico storm....that track would severely affect South Padre Island and Brownsville.


Yes agree 100% the north part of a system is the most strongest.I was talking of the eye going into Mexico as the guidance has shifted more left.
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#6 Postby Stratosphere747 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:55 pm

hicksta wrote:i dont think it will hold... the storm seems north of its projected path


You really need to stop, IMO...

If there ever was a "wishcaster" you truly are one. I have no problem with inquiring questions, but the countless statements and questions you continue to make are not productive.

I'll chalk it up to immaturity....;)
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#7 Postby dwg71 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:55 pm

hicksta wrote:i dont think it will hold... the storm seems north of its projected path


why doesnt that surprise me...

Its tracking very close to path..
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#8 Postby djtil » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:55 pm

the storm seems north of its projected path


emily has gone south of every projected path thus far.
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#9 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:57 pm

Graphic now updated with the 00z run.

Image

The Bam Models haved shifted left of the NHC forecast track including GFDL.
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#10 Postby hicksta » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:58 pm

dwg71 wrote:
hicksta wrote:i dont think it will hold... the storm seems north of its projected path


why doesnt that surprise me...

Its tracking very close to path..


shes north. and to the guy who called me immature stating that the models havent always held i think they will hold once it nears the yuc. and you calling me immature for my statment that the models wont hold. is a very wierd reason
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#11 Postby senorpepr » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:59 pm

Right... this storm has been tracking south. That's evident from looking at the extrapolation of the storm (that dotted black line) that continues the current motion forward for five days. This has been south of the consensus for a while...
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#12 Postby hicksta » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:59 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:
hicksta wrote:i dont think it will hold... the storm seems north of its projected path


You really need to stop, IMO...

If there ever was a "wonderful forecaster" you truly are one. I have no problem with inquiring questions, but the countless statements and questions you continue to make are not productive.

I'll chalk it up to immaturity....;)


Hmm looks like i was right.. i didnt think the models would hold.. look whos correct?
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#13 Postby hicksta » Fri Jul 15, 2005 8:00 pm

senorpepr wrote:Right... this storm has been tracking south. That's evident from looking at the extrapolation of the storm (that dotted black line) that continues the current motion forward for five days. This has been south of the consensus for a while...


Corrrect. But right now she is north of her next projected point
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#14 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 8:02 pm

hey, does anyone know how close(in nm) to jamaica she is suppose to come?
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#15 Postby dwg71 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 8:02 pm

hicksta wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:
hicksta wrote:i dont think it will hold... the storm seems north of its projected path


You really need to stop, IMO...

If there ever was a "wonderful forecaster" you truly are one. I have no problem with inquiring questions, but the countless statements and questions you continue to make are not productive.

I'll chalk it up to immaturity....;)


Hmm looks like i was right.. i didnt think the models would hold.. look whos correct?


come on hicksta, is tracking very close to forcast track, i didnt her you saying it was going to Belize when it missed every other mark to the south. you want a upper tx coast hit so bad, i can smell it.
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#16 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 8:03 pm

djtil wrote:emily has gone south of every projected path thus far.


You are correct, Emily is just a tad south of the projected track - or right on track.

Edited...
Actually, I'm looking at our track which is a hair north of NHC's track early on. It's south of our track but it is a tenth of a degree or so north of NHC's track. Considering the margin for error for locating the center is more than 1/10 of a degree, that doesn't indicate a trend.
Last edited by wxman57 on Fri Jul 15, 2005 8:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#17 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 15, 2005 8:04 pm

hicksta please,please,please stop your -removed-,you are almost crossing that fine line or else.
Last edited by cycloneye on Fri Jul 15, 2005 8:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#18 Postby hicksta » Fri Jul 15, 2005 8:04 pm

dwg71 wrote:
hicksta wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:
hicksta wrote:i dont think it will hold... the storm seems north of its projected path


You really need to stop, IMO...

If there ever was a "wonderful forecaster" you truly are one. I have no problem with inquiring questions, but the countless statements and questions you continue to make are not productive.

I'll chalk it up to immaturity....;)


Hmm looks like i was right.. i didnt think the models would hold.. look whos correct?



come on hicksta, is tracking very close to forcast track, i didnt her you saying it was going to Belize when it missed every other mark to the south. you want a upper tx coast hit so bad, i can smell it.


If you knew anything gatherd from my post's i live on galveston bay, my house would be destroyed my life gone. Nothing left all my childhood memoreis gone my fishing spot gone my boat gone. Now please tell me why would i want a catagory 4/5 storm coming to my house? so i can lose everything in my life.
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#19 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 8:05 pm

can someone answer my question plz? lol...i don't know...
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#20 Postby senorpepr » Fri Jul 15, 2005 8:05 pm

hicksta wrote:
senorpepr wrote:Right... this storm has been tracking south. That's evident from looking at the extrapolation of the storm (that dotted black line) that continues the current motion forward for five days. This has been south of the consensus for a while...


Corrrect. But right now she is north of her next projected point


Ummm... I don't see how you are getting that Emily is north of her next projected point. She's been tracking south of model and NHC guidance for a while now.
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