Emily is becoming better organized

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Matt-hurricanewatcher

Emily is becoming better organized

#1 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jul 15, 2005 3:44 pm

The outflow has expending outwards greatly over the last few hours. In a ring of red has reformed around the new eye that has just appeared on IR/Visible satellite. The system is done with its EWRC....Yes there was a outflow boundry but that may have helped push the unfavable enviroment away from the hurricane...Which at the same time you can see outflow moving outwards. As of this moment the outflow over the northwestern quad is not getting shear but enhanced.

So remember last night when it did not have any outflow. Plus it was going through a ERCW. Recon reported back a 20 nmi wide new eye...This is alot more impressive then ite was earlier this morning.


So if it where to slow down its current forward speed this thing could really start going. What happen when you get a system moving this fast is the system catches up with the ULLs. If it slows down watch it. With the warmest water off the whole Atlantic basin.


This system is becoming impressive again...


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 15, 2005 3:45 pm

But now is a cat 2.
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#3 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jul 15, 2005 3:49 pm

By the time recon gets back in. They will likely find that this is a cat3 again. Thats if current trends keep up...
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#4 Postby Anonymous » Fri Jul 15, 2005 3:50 pm

Yea, it's structure is getting better.
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#5 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 3:51 pm

Avila seemed to suggest in his discussion that this could be a Cat 1 hurricane. I hope they get a plane out there soon:

Initial intensity has been adjusted
downward to 90 knots and this is a generous estimate.
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#6 Postby Brent » Fri Jul 15, 2005 3:53 pm

Thunder44 wrote:Avila seemed to suggest in his discussion that this could be a Cat 1 hurricane. I hope they get a plane out there soon:

Initial intensity has been adjusted
downward to 90 knots and this is a generous estimate.


It will be in around 8pm EDT.
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#7 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jul 15, 2005 3:58 pm

I expect that eye to clear out/tighten over the next 6 to 12 hours. With that red ring of deep convection forming around the eye...I think it will be a cat3 by 5am.
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#8 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Jul 15, 2005 4:04 pm

Thunder44 wrote:Avila seemed to suggest in his discussion that this could be a Cat 1 hurricane. I hope they get a plane out there soon:

Initial intensity has been adjusted
downward to 90 knots and this is a generous estimate.


His 4pm discussion in my opinion was not one of his best.
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#9 Postby stormie_skies » Fri Jul 15, 2005 4:14 pm

How anyone can think that Miss Em's current sat presentaion compared to what she looked like at the time of the last advisory shows she is significantly weakening...

....I dunno. I'm not getting something here, I guess. :shrug:
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#10 Postby djtil » Fri Jul 15, 2005 4:16 pm

are we seeding with oregano now?
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#11 Postby stormie_skies » Fri Jul 15, 2005 4:17 pm

huh...???
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#12 Postby dhweather » Fri Jul 15, 2005 4:17 pm

Since we're not getting Satellite data right now, we get a surprise later.
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#13 Postby stormie_skies » Fri Jul 15, 2005 4:19 pm

I see that. I dont like surprises.... :x
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Let the Oreganoization begin...

#14 Postby curtinnc » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:13 pm

After we get into some warmer water...
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#15 Postby Brent » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:14 pm

Image

I'll be stunned if the pressure isn't down significantly...
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#16 Postby yoda » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:16 pm

Surprise! :eek: :eek:
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#17 Postby Brent » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:17 pm

Not only that... but she's much larger than she was last night. Remember how we were remarking how small the circulation was??? It's three times bigger now.
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#18 Postby Indystorm » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:24 pm

I'm thinking that the TUTT or upper level low around the Bahamas and southwest may really be aiding outflow now from Emily in the upper levels. Look at how that cirrus shield has expanded northward in much better fashion than earlier today.
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#19 Postby Scorpion » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:25 pm

Oh my god looks almost like Ivan did when it intitially reached Cat 5 status.
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#20 Postby stormie_skies » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:27 pm

She's so pretty....and no one is around here to look at her..... :lol:

Does anyone know when we should be hearing from recon???
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