Interesting stuff from NWS NOLA!

[mobilebay]

Well Wednesday morning I read the Forecast Discussion from the NWS New Orleans and they said they believe the trough currently over the US was not being depicted well by the models in the long range. Sure enough, now the models are picking up on the trough and have slid more north. However, after the slide north the models bend the track back due west in response to building High pressure over the East and Central GOM. Now I have just read from the NWS discussion out of NOLA that they believe the models are still under estimating the strength of the Trough.

Here it is...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/productview ... &version=0

[HouTXmetro]

Hmmm, I just read that. What does a stonger trough mean for Emily and her track. Is there really a 2 degree error in the models? Secondly, if so what is the significance?

[mobilebay]

Well a stronger trough would mean it would Erode more of the 500MB ridge, thus allowing a more poleward progression. It would make a strike on the Louisiana or Upper Texas Coast more likely.

[Hurricane Cheese]

Why do I have the feeling that that before the weekend is out we could be seeing some "Joe B. calls for NOLA landfall!" threads...??


But if the models aren't truly picking up on the troughs strength, then people in LA indeed need to begin to watch this...!

[HouTXmetro]

[quote="Hurricane Cheese"]Why do I have the feeling that that before the weekend is out we could be seeing some "Joe B. calls for NOLA landfall!" threads...??


But if the models aren't truly picking up on the troughs strength, then people in LA indeed need to begin to watch this...! [/quote


LOL@ JB and NOLA landfall.

But I agree, LA residents should have been watching this.

[HouTXmetro]

Well a stronger trough would mean it would Erode more of the 500MB ridge, thus allowing a more poleward progression. It would make a strike on the Louisiana or Upper Texas Coast more likely.

Hmmm, we have had daily heavy rain for the past 4-5 days and it is expected to continue into Saturday. A TC next week would really flood us out being that the grounds are saturated now.

[HouTXmetro]

Severe thunderstorms continue to roll through Houston as I type. No sign of a Ridge to me. Maybe the models are understimating the trough. I might add, the storms are building south into the GOM.

[Clint_TX]

I didn't know it rained every day with a ridge over you

[HouTXmetro]

I didn't know it rained every day with a ridge over you

My point is with convection building south into the GOM, I think that is a sign of weakness or a split in the trough.

[gk1]

Most mets seem to think that New Orleans is off the hook!! Models have been shifting further North. Regularly, a storm striking to our west or SW would give us some impact. I guess that they feel it will be too far away or maybe the core of the storm is too small to affect SE LA.

[Innotech]

all I know is it is storming aroud here right now and all of Southern Louisiana is covered in storms.

[HouTXmetro]

Most mets seem to think that New Orleans is off the hook!! Models have been shifting further North. Regularly, a storm striking to our west or SW would give us some impact. I guess that they feel it will be too far away or maybe the core of the storm is too small to affect SE LA.

She is getting bigger now.