ERWC probably underway...

Hyperstorm · #1 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:20 pm

Before I go to sleep, I wanted to point out that it appears that Emily is currently undergoing an Eyewall Replacement Cycle. The eye has become obscured, while the cloud pattern remains organized. This is indicative of one occurring. We'll see if recon reports something tonight.

Now to bed after a long day...

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #2 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:25 pm

I don't see any EWRC yet. The eye is still pin hole. With a large area of red which makes up the Cdo. This thing is gettting smaller in smaller by the minute. At this rate it will be a very small hurricane. :eek:

Maybe its turning into a micro hurricane?

Nimbus · #3 Postby **Nimbus** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:26 pm

Decided she needed a bigger eye maybe?

gkrangers · #4 Postby **gkrangers** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:28 pm

The eye has contracted and filled in a bit on satellite the last couple hours.

EWRC is a possibillity. If one occurs, recon will report it.

wxwatcher91 · #5 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:29 pm

Nimbus wrote:Decided she needed a bigger eye maybe?

plastic surgery???

clfenwi · #6 Postby **clfenwi** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:35 pm

Looking at the pics on NLMOC's page, looks like eye starts becoming obscured after 2315Z...

Derek Ortt · #7 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:39 pm

looks more like westerly shear has started to get the system. the outflow on the west is being destroyed

Sanibel · #8 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:43 pm

Almost looks like a ULL is pulling out ahead of it. Maybe that's why NHC levels the intensity off?

Emily will probably blow right through it...

#9 Postby **EDR1222** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:48 pm

The NHC did say there was a chance that the shear out in front of Emily might not relax as early as it was forecasted too.

Derek Ortt · #10 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:52 pm

now that this is a major hurricane, it doesnt take much shear to put it under serious pressure. 15KT is favorable for a TS to intensify, but causes major problems for a major cane

stormie_skies · #11 Postby **stormie_skies** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:53 pm

She does have the teeny tiniest little eye I think Ive ever seen on a storm....

I'm not sure a little shear would be a bad thing. I doubt it would kill her (she has already proven her resilience), but it might hold her back. I am sure whoever will end up dealing with her would appreciate that... :eek:

#12 Postby **deltadog03** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:56 pm

if she does get some shear...its suppose to be much better as she approaches the NW carribean

ERWC probably underway...

ERWC probably underway...

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