How long will high last

jes · #1 Postby **jes** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:03 pm

The way I understand this is the high is protecting N.O., Ms, Al and Florida. It's pushing Emily away. How can you tell how long the high will remain over us? Is there any chance at all the high will move? Do they have any idea when the high will move? It can't protect us forever. I would just like to know for sure that we're not going to be surprised again early next week and I am curious about how "highs" work.

#2 Postby **mvtrucking** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:05 pm

I am curious about that myself Jes... :?:

Rainband · #3 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:07 pm

000
FXUS62 KTBW 141731
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

.SHORT TERM (TNGT-SAT)...LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL FORECAST EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
ATLANTIC WHILE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTH TO ACROSS THE NATURE COAST FRIDAY AND
THEN ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY. MODELS KEEP DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.8 INCHES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
SEA/LAKE BREEZES WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. ONLY REAL EXCEPTION MAY
BE ALONG THE NATURE COAST LATE TONIGHT WHERE LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
COULD BRING A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AS RIDGE AXIS
DRIFTS NORTH HELPING TO FAVOR COASTAL COUNTIES FOR BEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THE STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS OVERALL FLOW REMAINS LIGHT...ALONG
WITH FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR AND CLOSE TO
NORMAL AND WILL NO DEVIATE FROM VERY MUCH.

.LONG TERM (SAT NGT-THU)...RIDGING CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE HIGH CENTER GRADUALLY SHIFTING WEST TO JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
FL/GA BORDER BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP E/SE WINDS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE STATE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR GENERALLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH FRIDAY THEN INCREASE
SOME AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT STILL BELOW FLAG CRITERIA. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 90 77 91 / 20 50 20 50
FMY 75 93 75 93 / 20 50 20 50
GIF 75 93 75 93 / 20 50 20 40
SRQ 75 90 75 90 / 20 50 20 50
BKV 73 92 73 92 / 20 50 20 50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM...PRC
LONG TERM....JLC

Website · #4 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:21 pm

Short answer: No.

Rainband · #5 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:23 pm

Brent wrote:Short answer: No.

your so comical :lol:

Website · #6 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:26 pm

Rainband wrote:
Brent wrote:Short answer: No.
your so comical

Gotta have a little humor during this crazy season. :lol:

Rainband · #7 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:32 pm

Brent wrote:
Rainband wrote:
Brent wrote:Short answer: No.
your so comical

Gotta have a little humor during this crazy season.

I agree and the peak is far away :eek:

johngaltfla · #8 Postby **johngaltfla** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:37 pm

Rainband wrote:
Brent wrote:
Rainband wrote:
Brent wrote:Short answer: No.
your so comical

Gotta have a little humor during this crazy season.
I agree and the peak is far away

If this isn't the peak, which it isn't, it makes one think that reading the real estate offerings in Anchorage may not be such a bad idea.

I just can not imagine all of the major cities in Florida escaping this year. It would be a blessing, but the odds continue to stack up against us....
:eek:

HurricaneJoe22 · #9 Postby **HurricaneJoe22** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:44 pm

Predition: SE Florida will take a hit from the E or SE from a major hurricane sometime this season.

#10 Postby **HollynLA** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:01 pm

makes one think that reading the real estate offerings in Anchorage may not be such a bad idea.

Watch it! Anchorage is an absolutely beautiful place and I hope to possibly live in AK one day. You may not have to worry about hurricanes, but those pesky earthquakes, volcanoes, and tsunamis might be a little troublesome at times.

#11 Postby **seahawkjd** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:15 pm

Hey, and Alaska is the only state where you get a longevity bonus for staying there. Oh, and no state taxes if I remember correctly.

beachbum_al · #12 Postby **beachbum_al** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:38 pm

My guess is that the ridge that is protecting us now is going to stay long enough for Emily to make it inland along Mexico or South Texas. But who is next. I am afraid what is next.

#13 Postby **mvtrucking** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:13 pm

Maybe the NHC is wondering the same? In the 11 pm discussion posted, they mention: THE OVERALL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE NORTH.

How long will high last

How long will high last

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