Is Emily a sure thing for the Mexican Coastline?

[Stormcenter]

I don't think so. IMO
By the way she continues to becoming
better organized with each passing hour.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[jhamps10]

I personally beg to differ. Dry air is sucking into the core, and convection is not as strong as in previous hours.

[gkrangers]

Let me guess...its gonna pass through the Yucatan Channel and ride up Galveston Bay?

[Hurricaneman]

Cant say for sure

[Air Force Met]

I personally beg to differ. Dry air is sucking into the core, and convection is not as strong as in previous hours.

Convection pulses...and usally dimenishes this time of night...nothing to do with too much dry air. Convection doesn't stay constant in weak hurricanes...it's up and down.

[Stormcenter]

Let me guess...its gonna pass through the Yucatan Channel and ride up Galveston Bay?

Nah. I think it would go a little further east like SW LA. though we sure could use the rain. Anyway my point it's just TOO EARLY to call. I guess you guys already forgot TS Cindy was suppose to hit Galveston Bay/Houston and it ended up in N.O.

[gkrangers]

I don't think Cindy is valid in an argument like this...because of the way the center reformed quite far north. If Cindy's center stayed intact over the Yucatan, Houston probably would have gotten some well needed rain.

[hicksta]

its all about the ridge. i personally think it will hit somewhere on the middle-northtx-la coast

Quote:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricaneman]

Probably closer to brownsville

[gkrangers]

Hell probably closer to Mexico City...

[HouTXmetro]

With each passing model agreement, I think so.

[Galvestongirl]

I am with gkrangers...its going up galveston bay

[hicksta]

With each passing model agreement, I think so.

how can you say that.. with each model its moving it north

[gkrangers]

With each passing model agreement, I think so.

how can you say that.. with each model its moving it north

NOGAPS, UKMET, CMC, and GFS all moved south.

[hicksta]

......

[Air Force Met]

With each passing model agreement, I think so.

how can you say that.. with each model its moving it north

Each model is not moving north...from the NHC discussion tonight:

THE NWS MODELS...GFS AND GFDL...HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE THE NAVY MODELS...GFDN AND
NOGAPS...HAVE SHIFTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH.

[hicksta]

i must be blind

[Swimdude]

its all about the ridge. i personally think it will hit somewhere on the middle-northtx-la coast

Quote:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Hey buddy, welcome to the boards, but one of those disclaimers isn't necessary for just a comment or two... Use it when you think someone could misinterpret your forecast as an official one. =)

[Air Force Met]

i must be blind

What models are you referring too? The models that really count...the dynamic models...are about the same. Some of the tropical models appear to shift north but you have to remember that earlier runs initialized Emily at 265...and now its 275...and that will shift the run northward because of that...not because of dynamic shifts in the environment.

[hicksta]

you lost me there.