HC Emily may be a repeat of HC Gilbert of 88'

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CaptinCrunch
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HC Emily may be a repeat of HC Gilbert of 88'

#1 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Jul 13, 2005 9:59 pm

Emily may take the same track as Gilbert did in 88'

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1988gilbert.html


Image
Last edited by CaptinCrunch on Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Scorpion

#2 Postby Scorpion » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:02 pm

Thats what im concerned about, and the strength. My friends are going to Cozumel on Sunday, the day its supposed to be near there :eek: .
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texasheat

#3 Postby texasheat » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:05 pm

i truly think it will be North of cozumel..
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#4 Postby Brent » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:10 pm

Scorpion wrote:Thats what im concerned about, and the strength. My friends are going to Cozumel on Sunday, the day its supposed to be near there :eek: .


I would strongly advise them to start making alternate plans...
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#neversummer
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Scorpion

#5 Postby Scorpion » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:11 pm

Why does a Texan want it north of Cozumel?
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#6 Postby Javlin » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:13 pm

Looking like the track initially but what was the synoptics like then though?
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#7 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:18 pm

Gilbert's Eye passed just South of Cozumel as a strong C5, Emily may make a more direct hit or just North of Cozumel as a C4 or even a C5 Hurricane. If She goes north she will slam the Texas coast somewhere between Brownville and Galveston.

If Emily starts a NNW turn at the Yucatun it could strike the upper Texas coast from Galveston to NOLA.

sorry for the type-o on Gilbert's Cat.
Last edited by CaptinCrunch on Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#8 Postby Ixolib » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:21 pm

Scorpion wrote:Why does a Texan want it north of Cozumel?


I'm waiting for the punchline... :lol: :lol: :lol:
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#9 Postby FritzPaul » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:28 pm

Ixolib wrote:
Scorpion wrote:Why does a Texan want it north of Cozumel?


I'm waiting for the punchline... :lol: :lol: :lol:


I'll leave that alone..... don't want pm from mods! :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Scorpion

#10 Postby Scorpion » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:29 pm

Ok, this scenario will not happen. Its July folks! And also, we just had a major hurricane! Dennis! Emily will not, can not do the same!
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#11 Postby mobilebay » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:29 pm

FritzPaul wrote:
Ixolib wrote:
Scorpion wrote:Why does a Texan want it north of Cozumel?


I'm waiting for the punchline... :lol: :lol: :lol:


I'll leave that alone..... don't want pm from mods! :lol: :lol: :lol:

wonderful forecasting?
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texasheat

#12 Postby texasheat » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:30 pm

Scorpion wrote:Ok, this scenario will not happen. Its July folks! And also, we just had a major hurricane! Dennis! Emily will not, can not do the same!


please tell me your being sarcastic
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#13 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:31 pm

Hopefully this is nowhere near as strong as Gilbert, probably wont be
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#14 Postby Ixolib » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:32 pm

FritzPaul wrote:
Ixolib wrote:
Scorpion wrote:Why does a Texan want it north of Cozumel?


I'm waiting for the punchline... :lol: :lol: :lol:


I'll leave that alone..... don't want pm from mods! :lol: :lol: :lol:


:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :lol: :lol: :uarrow:
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#15 Postby mobilebay » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:34 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Hopefully this is nowhere near as strong as Gilbert, probably wont be

Odds are 1 to 1.000,000 in won't be. Remember Gilbert was the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Atalntic Basin. Lowest pressure
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#16 Postby amawea » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:41 pm

I agree with Cptain Crunch's thoughts. It's too far out yet to be sure but the ridge is strong right now and it may pull back by day 4 or 5. I just don't see it holding with what's going on in the Pacific. Teleconnections would have a trough in the N.W. pulling east and eventually pushing the ridge east a little. Like I said it's just too early to make an intelligent forecast at this point, but hey, folks can make an intelligent guess.
Amawea
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#17 Postby Swimdude » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:43 pm

Image

Just an easier view...
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Derek Ortt

#18 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:53 pm

Gilbert did make alndfall as a category 5 hurricane

passed just south of Cayman as a very strong 4
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Scorpion

#19 Postby Scorpion » Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:28 pm

It made landfall as a 900 mb storm(wouldnt that be the most intense landfalling TC ever). No way it could be a 4 with 900 mb pressure.
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#20 Postby patsmsg » Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:30 pm

mobilebay wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:Hopefully this is nowhere near as strong as Gilbert, probably wont be

Odds are 1 to 1.000,000 in won't be. Remember Gilbert was the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Atalntic Basin. Lowest pressure


While the odds would certainly be high, and it's not gonna happen, the odds would be considerably less than 1,000,000 to one given that there are no where near 1,000,000 hurricanes on record.
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